Golden Gate fishing boat overflowing incident, Yu Bo, has not been invalidated by the

Golden Gate and Xiamen's nearest place are only 5 kilometers apart.

On February 14 this year, after the two Chinese people died in the hunting operation of the Taiwan Coast patrol team in the Golden Gate waters, they caused high attention on both sides of the strait and warfare. The Chinese maritime police and sea supervisors have further entered Taiwan.It is regarded as "prohibition" or "restrictions" waters.The Taiwan Affairs Office of the Mainland State Council stated toughly that the seas of Xiamen and Golden "did not have prohibitions and restricted waters."

Fatal accidents occur in Taiwan's military primary land, and only one water separated from Fujian, China. This incident gradually heated up between the two sides of the strait and became a political wrestling.Zhou did not work, and it also caused fierce debate in Taiwan.

However, what is concerned about from all walks of life in international circles is that the mainland will "push the boat in the water" to cancel the "Strait Mid -line" airspace model, and start to deny the Golden Gate waters that have been traveling for many years by "tacit understanding"?In the future, will Chinese maritime police ships and even warships enter the Golden Gate "restricting and prohibiting waters" will be normalized?

Shortly after the accident of the Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China last month, it publicly denied that the Golden Gate "prohibited and restricted waters" claimed by Taipei, called Kinmen and the nearby waters "belonged to China since ancient times", and there was no problem that could not enter.At the same time, on February 19, the Chinese Maritime Police forcibly boarded a Taiwan sightseeing boat in the Golden Gate waters for inspection.

The cross-strait boundary "tacit"

Since June 1949, the government of the Republic of China has implemented a blockade policy for the Taiwan Strait to control and block the area.Until the early 1970s, military and civilians in mainland China avoided through the Taiwan Strait.In January 1974, the PLA navy sailed for the first time in the Taiwan Strait.In May 1979, the civil cargo ship of the People's Republic of China began sailing in the Taiwan Strait again.In September of the same year, the Republic of China government issued an announcement to stop closing the policy.In November 1983, the mainland passenger ship resumed sailing in the Taiwan Strait.At the end of 1987, relatives on both sides of the strait were open, and people on both sides of the strait exchanged more frequently.At the same time, mainland vessels have entered a large number of waters to engage in fisheries and illegal transactions.In February 1988, Zhao Shaokang proposed a proposal for the People's Relations Regulations of Taiwan and the mainland region in the Taiwan Legislative Yuan, which aims to regulate the activities and various affairs of people cross -strait people.

According to the press release of the Taiwan MAC, the restrictions of the Golden Gate region and the prohibition of waters are prohibited by the Taiwan Ministry of Defense in accordance with the regulations on the Cross -Strait in 1992. After the amendment, the law enforcement agencies on both sides of the strait have carried out relevant waters in accordance with this.In the past, it has also carried out law enforcement and co -saving cooperation on maritime rescue in the past.

But Li Xun, the head of the new party member of the two systems in Taiwan, told the Hong Kong Media's China Merchants that the "restricted waters" between the two places between Jinxia have always been established in Taiwan, and there is no consensus on both sides of the strait.The basis for the source of the law is the default of the mainland goodwill. "

"Mid -Strait" also involves the international background. According to the study of Song Chengen, a Taiwanese international law scholar, this midline is usually considered to be due to the common defense treaty signed by Taiwan and the United States in 1954. In order to prevent military conflicts, the US military defense Taiwan Command DepartmentThe fighter aircraft and ships of the National Army of the Republic of China must be moved east to the east of the "Strait Middle Line", otherwise the U.S. military cannot provide security guarantees.At the same time, according to the U.S. military's instructions, as long as the PLA aircraft or ship crossed the central line and was determined to be hostile, the U.S. fighter jets in Taiwan could face and fire.

Taiwan Strait crisis: "Strait on both sides of the strait," Strait on both sides of the Strait, "Strait on both sides of the Strait on both sides of the Strait" Strait StraitWhat is the middle line "?

Song Chengen analyzed this that in recent years, based on its political stance, the mainland refused to recognize the central line of the Strait. The purpose was to remove its boundaries and behaviors of Taiwan's use of force, and brought new challenges to Taiwan's security.Now that the cross -strait "tacit understanding is no longer". In the future, how Taiwan officials judge or respond to the civilian ships or military police vessels coming from the other side are estimated to be a very tricky issue after the new president Lai Qingde government came to power.

Atlantic Council, a global Chinese hub researcher, analyzed by the Huafu Think Tank Atlas of the Washington Think Tank, said that after the Golden Gate turned over, China ’s work aims to expand the space for Chinese military operations.At the same time, it also tries to deprive Taiwan as a government role that advocates the role of government leader and the aim of sovereignty.He also agreed that these actions are part of the wider strategy of Beijing, which aims to limit Taiwan's action space, and then hopes to weaken the DPP Lai Qingde government who is about to take office.

Ben Lewis, the co -founder of independent military defense analysts and research websites Platracker website, stated that China ’s recent activities in Kinmen are connected with its existing military operations and strategies.He told reporters that Beijing has always explored and used various methods, "Try to change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait under possible conditions. Taiwan's best response strategy is to ensure what the public understands China is doing and how this will affect the status quo (StatusQUO) " Kinmen New Normal State?

In the past few years, in order to put pressure on the Taiwan Cai Yingwen government in recent years, in order to put pressure on the Taiwan Cai Yingwen government, it began to deny the "Taiwan Strait Middle Line" over the Taiwan Strait and the "ADIZ" (Adiz) officially defined by Taiwan.The Military Aircraft of the PLA has become a "new normal" through the Taiwan Strait, breaking the air boundary that has been recognized by the two sides of the strait in the past. This is also a proof of cross -strait relations falling to the bottom of the valley.

On February 1 this year, the Civil Aviation Administration of China once again announced the cancellation of flight bias measures running north to south of M503 routes, and the routes will no longer move west.According to this measure, the mainland civil aviation aircraft began to fly close to the midline of the strait since February, which caused international discussion.

The Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China publicly denied that the existence of Kinmen's "prohibiting waters" after the collision incident. The division of this waters was based on cross -strait tacit understanding.The outside world is concerned that in the past, whether the waters that Taiwan can control in the past will face the situation of Chinese officials and civilian vessels in and out, how can Taiwan cope with this "new normal"?

The Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China publicly denied that the existence of Kinmen's "prohibiting waters" after the collision incident. The division of this waters was based on cross -strait tacit understanding.

Analysis of Beijing Strategy, Professor June Teufel Dreyer, an expert in China -Japan Relations Research Expert at the University of Mia, once told economists that when Nanhai wants to propose controversial claims, it may be mentioned at a low -key meeting first,Then hand it to government documents or official media citations, and then publicly quoted by senior officials."This is the method of creating a fabric Accompli step by step."

What is the "cut sausage" tactic on the mainland on the issue of the sea?

Dr. Sasteru Nagao, a well -being stationed in the Hudson Institute, told that China has begun to execute the Maritime Police Law in February 2021 is a key point.According to Changwei Xian, after the implementation of the law, China can at any time upgrade the situation from the sea police level to the military level at any time, because according to the law, the maritime police department is under the command of the Central Military Commission.He explained to reporters taking the activities around the Tsunaga Islands (Diaoyu Islands) as an example. In 2011, the number of Chinese maritime police and other ships in the Japanese continuation of Japan or the neighboring sea around the island was 12 ships.Each year, the number has exceeded 1,000.

Changwei Hyato told reporters that according to Japanese experience, China is around the Taiwan StraitThe expansion of the control area of ​​the sea is a long -term trend: "I can expect that China will gradually expand its activities around Golden Gate and Taiwan."

He said that after the announcement of the Maritime Police Law in 2021, Beijing in September of the same year announced that the implementation of the Maritime Traffic Safety Law was a consistent strategy of Chinese competitors in Taiwan and regional competitors."This time, Beijing has gained further expansion of activities near Taiwan, squeezing Taiwan's new words."

How do Taiwan face stress?

Beijing's actions are frequent, and after the relevant cross -strait sea and air tacit understanding line has been announced, is there still room for Taiwan to resist Beijing?

Louis, who has long studied Chinese military activities for a long time, may be able to learn from the Philippines.

He believes that Manila showed the value of "effective strategic communication". In other words, Manila received several international support by sharing images and video evidence in the South China Sea Chinese military operations."I think Taiwan should imitate this strategy as much as possible. Or taking Japan as an example, Tokyo has developed a valid and easy to obtain key information transfer method on Chinese military activities. According to my previous suggestions, I think Taipei involves the PLA warships.When the aircraft appears around the island, this way of information sharing should be imitated.Compare the strategy of frank dialogue and cooperation.

The islands of Kinmen, Taiwan -Shiyu.The island is inserted with the National Republic of China, and the high -rise building opposite is Xiamen City, Fujian (information photo on April 20, 2018).

In addition, according to Taiwan United News Network reported this month, under the United States Defense Authorization Law, the US Army Special Forces "Green Flat Hat" (also known as Green Berets Green Berets) consultants have actually been stationed in Taiwan for a long time to assist in trainingAmphibious special troops include Golden Gate and Penghu, Taiwan's outer island.

The US Pentagon did not publish specific comments on the matter. Only the media stated that the US -Taiwan defense relations will adjust according to China's threat of Taiwan: "We do not comment on specific actions, contacts, or training.Supporting and our defense relationship with Taiwan is still adjusted to the current threat of China. "

Kinmen County Councilor Dong Senbao emphasized that Kinmen fishermen and county citizens and hope to calm down quickly.He said that the fishermen of Kinmen were worried that after many years of prohibition of waters, the mainland fishing or sand ships would enter frequently in the future, which may overlap with their fishing work fields, affecting their fishing and livelihood.

The outside world pays attention to whether the speedboat overflow will make the Jinxia waters a conflict point for both sides of the strait.

At present, the case has been sent to the judicial prosecution unit for investigation.Taiwan officials said that they had to communicate with the families of the victims and provide condolences, but they emphasized that the Taiwan party complied with the regulations to ban the "three non -ships" (generally referring to the inspection certificate, ship registration certificate, and capture permit for no valid fishery ships).However, China's attitude is tough.At a press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China, the Tsai Ing -wen government of Taiwan was offensive to the mainland people, and claimed that under its government, the Taiwan sea patrol unit often "harassed" Chinese fishing vessels.

The former deputy minister of the Ministry of National Defense and the current Kuomintang spokesman Xia Liyan at the end of February at the end of February, Song Tao, the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Mainland China State Council, saying that the Kuomintang hopes to express condolences to the family members of the victims through the National Taiwan Affairs Office.The power "urges the DPP authorities to deal with it properly."

Brian Hioe, Taiwan Research Center of the University of Nottingham University, believes that Xia Liyan meets Song Tao at this moment. It is the Kuomintang tried to use this incident to strengthen its consistent claims. "That is, the Kuomintang is the only political party in Taiwan today."