The United States can play a role before the new president of Taiwan on May 20, conveying signals received from the mainland to Taiwan.However, the United States will not put pressure on President Lai Qingde, nor will it seek any content of a written speech, and the DPP will eventually make its own choice.

Grace, the director of the Asian Project of the Marshall Foundation in Germany, made the above analysis at an online forum held at the Hong Kong Globalization Center on Friday (January 19).

This forum focuses on the impact of Taiwan's elections on Sino -US relations and the situation in Taiwan.Participating scholars include Bao Daoge, former director of the Taipei Office of the Taiwan Association and Daori, Director of the International Security and Strategy Research Center of Tsinghua University.

Beijing has repeatedly criticized Lai Qingde, who has repeatedly criticized the current vice president as "Taiwan independence stubborn"; many analysts believe that Lai Qingde was elected as president and Increased uncertainties in the tension situation of the Taiwan Strait , it may increase the risk of mainland China's martial arts.

Grace believes that the possibility of Beijing's martial arts in Taiwan in the next four years is not high, "but the possibility is not zero."

She said in the analysis of the response of various countries that the current regions and countries around the world are worried that there may be military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.The United States expected to take more actions to seek deterrence and avoid mainland martial arts.The United States will also cooperate with regional countries, especially Japan, which has particularly great interests to maintain the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.The European side's concerns about the situation in the Taiwan Strait have also increased. "Therefore, Europe is willing to take action to warn Chinese officials not to martial arts against Taiwan."

Bloomberg economy has predicted that if a war in the Taiwan Strait will occur, the world will lose $ 10 trillion (S $ 13.4 trillion), which is equivalent to about 10%of the global GDP.Another study by the United States Rongding Group in 2022 shows that if the mainland has blocked Taiwan, economic activities with more than $ 2 trillion in the world will face risks.

Grace Raid the above studies as an example. These estimated numbers have made many countries realize military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, and even the blockade of Kinetic Force will have a negative impact on all areas of the world."No country really wants to see war outbreaks in the Taiwan Strait."

Bao Daoge's research and judgment, Meilu Tai performed restrained before and after the election of Taiwan, plus Lai Qingde will be suffered in the Legislative Yuan in the Legislative YuanRestricted ."So far, these signs have made me believe that we should be able to complete Taiwan's transition without being in crisis."

Taiwan will hold the new president inauguration ceremony on May 20. The outside world will pay attention to the expression of cross -strait issues in the inaugural speech.

Da Wei predicts that Lai Qingde will not make very irritating remarks in his inauguration."No leader hopes to bring himself a challenge or be in a difficult situation as soon as he takes office. Even if he wants to make a statement in the future, it is expected that he will speak up when he is seeking re -election.Great motivation to anger the mainland. "

As for the role that the United States can play in the 520 inauguration speeches, Grace pointed out that it has a major interest relationship for Lai Qingde to maintain a good relationship with the United States and not fundamentally cause confrontation with Beijing."I don't think he wants to have military conflicts."

Grace also emphasized that the United States will not write a speech on behalf of Lai Qingde, and "even one or two sentences" will not be.

She said: "If we hear interesting and creative suggestions from the mainland, we will convey through scholars like me or US officials. We hope to see the two parties to reach a consensus to reach a consensus.Communication ... but we won't, we don't plan to put pressure on Lai Qingde. We will not seek to write any content of his speech, and eventually they must make their own choices. "