Su Qi, a well -known cross -strait relationship scholar in Taiwan, believes that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are likely to be showed up in the next four or five years, and Taiwan will not have much time to drag in Taiwan. If you don't want to face the price of martial arts, you should take the initiative to start a dialogue.

Su Qi has served as Secretary -General of the National Security Conference at the Ma Ying -jeou government. He is currently the chairman of the Taipei Forum and a honorary professor at the National Development Research Institute of the National University of Political Science.He put forward the above views at the release conference of Taiwan's selection under the United States and China in the United States and China under the United States and China.

Taiwan under the confrontation of the United States and China has chosen to detailed the political achievements from Lee Teng -hui to Cai Yingwen, and the changes in cross -strait relations.Su Shi attended the new book presentation on Friday and further pointed out during the media joint interview that Tsai Ing-wen was successful in tactics in the past eight years, but to maintain the status quo to cover up the theory of the two countries is a strategic error, so bitter fruits are borne by the prospective President Lai Qingde.

Su Qi and predict, Lai Qingde's governance will not be very smooth in the next four years .

He pointed out that Taiwan now has only three roads in the face of cross -strait issues, namely fighting, drag, and peace.But you want to "drag" shortly, and it will not become better afterwards.

Su Qi believes that the last show will appear on both sides of the strait in the next few years. "In the next four or five years, I think the possibility of the final game over (the ending) is very high."

He pointed out that for Beijing, the martial arts of Taiwan are based on strategic decisions, not based on cost and economic considerations. The past Korean war and the Sino -Vietnamese war were the case.Therefore, he did not agree that mainland China would choose to abandon Wu Tong due to severe internal problems such as economy.

Su Qi further mentioned that in the past, Taiwan has never intended to pay costs and costs, so he wants to maintain the status quo and even independent; but if he is unwilling to bear cost, he can only wait passively.

He believes that if Taiwan is unwilling to bear the "fighting" of martial arts, there must be courage to face the "harmony" of cross -strait political dialogue.If Taiwan takes the initiative to open the two -strait dialogue, it will not only reduce the pressure of the American management cross -strait crisis, but also make Beijing relax. Taiwan can also have a dignified way to solve its own problems.

However, he emphasized that the current situation is in the atmosphere of "fighting", and the parties are scamming, so he will neither believe that Tsai Ing -wen maintains the status quo, nor will he believe in the US President Biden, and he will not believe in Beijing peace.Uniform saying, "Listen, we can do (defense) we still have to do.

At the same time, Su Qi still reminds Taiwan to pay special attention to the United States, "because the United States is the only protection in Taiwan now."However, he believes that the November election in the United States is a very large gray rhino. If Trump comes to power, it will be tantamount to throwing off the nuclear bullet -level shocking bomb on the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

In addition, he also derives Taiwan's nine possible scripts in the next nine in the future.Among them, the four possibilities of non -martial arts are the normalization of the status quo, cross -strait political dialogue, US -China negotiations, and the unified across the Taiwan Strait.

As for the five possibilities of moving martial arts, it is a one of the South (China) Haijie, Crimea, Ukrainization, and the successful beauty of Murder, the successful war of the South (China).And Hiroshi, which touches nuclear weapons.

Su Qi analyzes that the possibility of four unmotislances is relatively high, and the possibility of martial arts is relatively low, but which one will happen, no one knows, it can only be given to time decision.