The Taiwan People's Party relying on the online war that is good at, consolidating the basic disk mainly based on young ethnic groups, and even shouting that young people's voting rates exceeded 85%, they can remove the blue -green slogan.The analysis believes that during the final countdown stage of the party, the weakness of the organization's mobilization ability has been strengthened, or it may effectively fight the abandoned effect.
The people's party, which was established in 2019, has always claimed to be the white power beyond blue and green, but the ability of the organization and mobilization (land war) is considered worse than the two major parties.Ke Wenzhe, the chairman of the party and presidential presidential candidate, confessed many times that they could not mobilize a bento and tour bus like the blue and green parties.
For this reason, he positioned the election as a new political confrontation with the old forces, the self -media duel, the traditional media of the media, the rational and pragmatic scientific duel ideology, and the traditional pile politics of the citizen movement, and strived to break through the traditional framework.
The closer to the voting day, the people's party's momentum has gradually risen. Not only is the evening venue full, the tens of thousands of crowds are surging, and the supporter's statement is also quite high.
In addition to the hot interaction on the Internet, for a lot of supporters, many supporters can be seen along the way, or shouting "113 (January 13) to make Taiwan's choice (on January 13) (January 13)Homestyr: Choose Typhra) Slogan.
There are various signs that the basic market of the people's party has gathered and moved from online to offline.This is also regarded as an important fulcrum that Bai Ying is expected to shake the blue -green sector.
Niu Zexun, a professor at the Department of Advertising at the Taiwan Cultural University, analyzed in an interview with the United Morning Post that Ke Wenzhe attracted a large number of young voters through the Internet propaganda channels in the past 10 years.In the 2014 Taipei Mayor's election, the college student who voted to Ke Wenzhe for the first time has now become a 30 -year -old young age. This group of people is the basic market of the people's party.
For the people's party to further solidify supporters, Niu Zexun believes that the long -term blue -and -green fighting makes the people's party's party more distinctive. In addition, Ke Wenzhe's image is strong enough, which is completely different from the traditional political figures of young people.Can also call on middle voters or hate blue -green voters, these factors have also become the key to supporting the survival of the people.
Many Taiwanese media recently quoted the internal estimates of the people's party. As Ke Wenzhe's basic disk was made by a large number of Young people and middle voters support . The key to winning will be tied to young people's willingness to vote. As long as the voting rate of young people under 30 years of age exceeds 85 %, Ke Wenzhe is expected to win.
In addition to consolidating the basic disk of young votes, the people's party also played the "grandson warfare" to bring Ke Wenzhe's 2014 campaign slogan "this vote listened to children" and evolved into "this ticket to listen to the grandson".Pull the elders at home.Niu Zexun judged that such a strategy may make the lack of votes that Ke Wenzhe and the people have made up for the lack of votes.
Looking back at Taiwan's politics, in addition to the two major camps of Blue and Green, the third forces have emerged. For example, the Taiwan Uniter Alliance (Taiwan Union), which was called by the late President Lee Teng -hui, and the people founded by the former governor of Taiwan Province Song Chuyu.The power of the party, even after the sun flowers, the power of the times.
However, it is difficult for these three political parties to avoid marginalization.Therefore, the outside world also pays attention to whether the people's party and even Ke Wenzhe are facing bubble risks after this selection.
Wang Yeli, a professor at the Department of Political Science, Taiwan University, analyzed during an interview with the Morning Post that the people's party won more times than four years ago, which is almost predictable than four years ago.
He further pointed out that when dealing with major controversy bills, the Taiwan Legislative Yuan often needs to use the party and group negotiation system. In the case of three parties, when the bill enters the party and group consultation, the people's party can play a key minority role. I believeIt will not face the problem of bubbleization.
The people's party supplements the weakness of land war to abandon insurance
Before November 24 last year, , But the ultimate coordination failed .Today, in order to avoid the division of the votes, the Kuomintang continued to shout to the party's branch holder before the election, hoping to unite the Democratic Progressive Party.United government.
In this regard, Ke Wenzhe criticized the blue camp attempt to operate abandoning insurance, and emphasized that he would no longer be on the Kuomintang.
Scholars of interviewees believe that the abandonment effect of this election will not be so significant.
Niu Zexun pointed out that the weakness of the people's party lies in the organization's mobilization capabilities, but after several campaigns, it can be found that the number of participants has a high ratio and the momentum has risen. To some extent meansWar ", make up for the weaknesses of local mobilization, and the basic market for young ethnic groups is stable. On the other hand, it is difficult for the Kuomintang to effectively touch middle voters, and it is difficult to attract too many people's party voters.
He said that the reason why the basic party of the people's party is difficult to shake is that some of these people are believed that they can really get off the blue and green this time; the other part is extremely disgusted with blue and green;Green, purely Ke Wenzhe's iron powder, is not Ke Bo.
In addition, in order to break through the disadvantages of the people's insufficient exposure in the traditional media, since the beginning of December last year, Ke Wenzhe's personal Youtube channel launched the "KPTV" live broadcast of at least eight hours a day. Under this online sprint, the channel subscribes to subscribe to the channel subscription.numberIt also officially exceeded millions on Monday (January 8), becoming the first person in Taiwan's politicians.
However, Niu Zexun reminded that the election campaign has entered the final countdown. The news issues and information have been seriously overloaded. The blue -green campaign advertisement is overwhelming.Traditional land war cannot be behind the two major blue and green camps in the momentum.
In another day, the election of Taiwan and legislators will officially appear. The nightmare for the night before the election on Friday (January 12) is the climax of the party's final votes.
Faced with the killing of the Blue and Green Party, the People's Party focused on the focus of the focus on the day of Taipei. In the morning, an international press conference was held.The two major parties led to complete the fourth party rotation in Taiwan.
