The motivation for Chinese enterprises to go to sea is mainly divided into three categories: one is based on the Chinese government's Belt and Road Initiative; the other is based on the actual business needs of controlling overseas raw materials and supply chains, low -cost dividends or seizing the local market;Based on a trade barrier by bypassing Europe and the United States, or providing supporting factories that have been relocated.The third cause is undoubtedly the most important cause of the migration of Chinese enterprises in recent years, and it is also the focus of this article.
Although the trend of trade against China and strategic plugging in China will continue in the future for a long time, the movement of China's industry outsiders based on this targeted and plugged in Southeast Asia will be in the future.Five years or even a short period of time gradually calm down.
Since the Sino -US trade conflict in 2018, in order to avoid the high penalty tariffs of the United States, a large number of Chinese companies and supporting companies with the United States as the core market have been forced to move to Southeast Asia.It proves to achieve product exports to the US market.At this time, the pressure faced by Chinese companies was just because the Trump administration unilaterally launched trade protection measures in order to reduce the US -China trade deficit.
At the beginning of 2020, the process of relocation of Chinese companies was forced to suspend due to the sudden outbreak of the crown disease.However, it is precisely because of the epidemic period that the Chinese government adopted the cautious and rigorous sealing measures of the people's life, so that Europe and the United States deeply felt the risk of the supply chain of the global manufacturing industry in China.As a result, in 2022 when the global epidemic is gradually liberalized, Europe and the United States have strived to play a more important role in the field of Southeast Asian countries in the field of manufacturing. At this stage, Chinese enterprises have set off a new climax.
Obviously, the cause of the relocation of Chinese enterprises and the causes of foreign relocation in the early years of developed economies such as Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea, have essential differences.Enterprises in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea are either based on the objective needs of the country that have completed industrial upgrades and eliminate the objective needs of backward industries or low -value industries. They are based on the needs of expanding the market in other countries. They are all active acts.The relocation of Chinese enterprises generally occurred in the case of domestic industrial upgrades. Based on the pressure of internal political policy and the pressure of external trade barriers, most of them were relocated, and most of them were passive or even forced.
If the China -US trade conflict broke out in 2018, the wave of Chinese enterprises has continued for six years; if it was calculated from the Belt and Road Initiative, it has been in its scale for 10 years.Chinese enterprises that have the demand for rigidity and have strength to go out. Most of them have completed or are undergoing an overseas layout of the industry during this time.Most of the remaining companies that have no rigid demand for migration, or companies that do not have the strength of external relocation.In the next three or five years, it will increase the demand for Chinese companies to go to sea.
The factors that affect the further relocation of Chinese enterprises are: 1. Europe and the United States are unwilling to see that Chinese companies find new living spaces in Southeast Asia. For overseas Chinese enterprises, they must be gradually implemented.Recently, the European Union's tariff measures for new energy vehicles and the US Department of Commerce rejected Vietnam's market economy status, which all reflect the prevention and targets of Chinese superior enterprises represented by the new energy industry in Southeast Asia.It is only when Southeast Asia (and India) cannot completely replace the role of Chinese -made Chinese, and temporarily need to move to Southeast Asia to play a transitional role; 2. Even if there is no European and American -to -Chinese enterprises, when Southeast Asian countries are gradually established,During the manufacturing industry chain of Chinese enterprises, Southeast Asian countries themselves also had great possibilities for their own Chinese enterprises.Because most countries in Southeast Asia have more or less disputed territorial and territorial disputes in China, there are conflicts of national interests that cannot be failed in bilateral, especially countries with deeper historical and realistic contradictions in Vietnam, India, Philippines, etc., and China.
Therefore, in the foreseeable future, the living environment of Chinese enterprises in Southeast Asia will become more serious, leaving less time for overseas Chinese enterprises to develop and profitability.This trend will also gradually limit the trend of Chinese enterprises.
The author is the founder of Fujian Law Firm
