Source: Bloomberg
For the first time in China in 20 years, it seems that it is no longer a engine that promotes global crude oil demand. For many traders and executives who gathers Singapore to participate in the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) this week, this is an unknown area.
China's economic situation is severe, the real estate market is sluggish, consumers are weak, and the road to recovery after the epidemic is difficult.Not to mention the aging of the population, which has brought structural changes, energy transformation, and growth models to reduce dependence on large infrastructure, which is a profit for oil.
For crude oil traders and analysts, this means major adjustment.
"I have discussed internally with my traders. I asked them a question -how long have you been doing transactions? They would say 10 years," said Kong Qingying, CEO of Hengli Petrochemical, "IThe answer is that you have not really experienced the environment that China is not a bullish factor.
China's growth has been supporting crude oil prices for decades for decades, from Shanghai to Dubai to London for decades, which provides business opportunities for traders.The tolerance for the growth rate of GDP (GDP) is at low single digits -it may not even achieve the goal of 5%this year -it makes it difficult to sustain this situation.
Bloomberg's informal survey conducted by 10 analysts and traders at the Asia -Pacific Petroleum Conference found that in 2025, the increase in the average daily consumption of PetroChina is expected to not exceed 300,000 barrels.This is in line with the latest estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the agency has lowered the forecast this week.At the same time, this is lower than the estimate of OPEC.
The above -mentioned informal survey shows that the average daily consumption increased by 200,000 barrels this year.
The anonymous interviewees who required anonymous to mention the improvement rate of electric vehicles, the steady growth of LNG trucks, and the government's restrictions on crude oil imports and fuel exports.The Chinese government's idle energy storage of strategic petroleum reserves is also almost left.
China's prospects are full of challenges, and the annual Asian largest oil conference held in Singapore has been shadow.As Brent crude oil approaches $ 71 per barrel (S $ 92), China's second largest economy in the world has almost no signs of recovery, and traders and oil refining companies are preparing to meet the decline in profits.
Nevertheless, China's oil refining capacity continues to increase.Traders and analysts who were surveyed by Bloomberg said that China, the world's second largest oil consumer country in the world, will have to endure a processing rate of less than 70%.
