Source: Yuanjian Magazine

Author: Qiu Liyan

Will artificial intelligence (AI) industry foam?How can Taiwan avoid the pit?Former Google Taiwan Director President Jian Lifeng will first appear on the podium of the School of Leadership on September 13.Prior to this, he observed the Huang Renxun AI topic set off by Computex in June, but he deeply put forward the observation of "AI PC is a fake issue", and even warned that this wave of AI heat may bubble!How to transform does not cause foaming?He pointed out: Taiwan plays a key role here.

In the early summer of 2024, "Light of Taiwan" has a new name, AI.

Today's AI chip characters and Nvidia co -founder and CEO Huang Renxun's speech at the National Taiwan University Stadium showed out the moment when the 107 partner maps in Taiwan were showed.Touched, both Taiwan and Nvidia created the golden age of the AI, and they were honored.

The Taipei International Computer Fair (Computex 2024), which was debuted, also got rid of the previous cold field, attracting 1,500 high -tech companies worldwide to participate in exhibitions. Unprecedented grand occasion, AMD, Qualcomm, Intel's CEO also attended and mergedSpeaking.

"All the electronics industry in Taiwan survives again", Jian Lifeng, managing director of Taiwan's former director of Taiwan and Appier independent director, pointed out that in fact, "Taiwan's life is not bad".There is an iPhone mobile phone "one apple to save Taiwan"; when the mobile phone can't be sold, I did not expect that AI came. Nvidia joined hands with Taiwan's semiconductor and server manufacturers."

It's a long -term vision.Jian Lifeng, who prepared lessons of the "Leading Institute of Leadership" in the world's business group, found that AI may have a bubble risk. It is planning to open a course to teach the senior management of Taiwanese enterprises and how to open the niche and avoid the development of the AI ​​industry in the Chaos World Bureau.The exclusive course of the threat and the exclusive course of "How to import AI?" This may be the first time he has told a course for six hours in 20 years.

TSMC creates shovel in AI gold rush heat

As far as the standpoint of Taiwan's electronics industry is concerned, the actions to welcome the AI ​​wave belong to "passive innovation", because the attempts to be attempted to become "Wintel" in the AI ​​era, Taiwan's electronics industry is the most important thing.

Wintel is a personal computer composed of Microsoft Windows plus Intel's CPU, a soft and hard -called world.The "soft" in the AI ​​era is Openai or Google. "Hard" is Nvidia, but Nvidia does not want to make hardware alone, but it is to eat hard and hard. Taiwan is the best partner.

"This is why Huang Renxun has changed from winning Taiwanese businessmen to lift Taiwanese businessmen. Now it is a completely different strategic method," Jian Lifeng said.

Jian Lifeng, who once managed Google's global search, recently proposed the word "new G7" in public.Seven of the top ten companies in the world's top ten are related to AI. Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Meta, TSMC is just seventh of the seven, but this is not necessarily good for Taiwan.

If the story of gold rush is metaphorical, Nvidia can describe the person who designs shovel in the "New G7". TSMC is the person who creates a shovel, and the other five are people who buy shovels."Those who use shovel will become bigger and bigger, and there is only one peak period for making shovels." Jianlifeng judged that the life cycle of any product will eventually enter the mature period.

According to the Wall Street Journal report, Silicon Venture Capital Capital Equisite Capital (Sequoia) had estimated that the related industries spent $ 50 billion to buy Nvidia chips in 2023 to train AI, but they only brought $ 3 billion in revenue.

"This is the data that is often cited when we are in AI bubble." Wall Street Journal's technical columnist Christopher Mims wrote that 50 billion and 3 billion, the difference between the difference between the two is staggering, the difference between the two is staggering.But what is really related to whether the industry can develop healthy for a long time is that the operating cost of AI is too high.

"And the valuation of some AI startups is very high, even higher than the IPO of the unicorn company, it will definitely bubble," Jian Lifeng said.

Another risk is that AI may shape a new round of digital hegemony.Although AI is subverting the global industry, Jian Lifeng believes that "we overestimate today and underestimate tomorrow."Humans think that AI has affected hundreds of industries, but it has not yet. It has still influenced the world's most competitive companies.Because other companies do not make money from AI, they cannot invest too much. Only those most competitive companies in the world "can afford AI"; once the new application rises in the next stage, "those companies" may may beTake all the winners.

Robot and edge operations AI can break AI bubble

Delayed AI bubble rupture, Jian Lifeng believes that there are two methods. One is to include AI 3C devices such as AI PC and AI mobile phones, which can be paid by consumers.The second is the company's AI, that is, the company's software plus AI, the company will be willing to pay.

"But AI PC and AI mobile phones may be fake issues." The researcher of the Institute of Information Institute of the Central Academy of Sciences found that the most powerful Taipei computer exhibition in history, all CEOs of the chip.None of the software factories and Internet A coffee appeared.

Like Microsoft released Copilot + PC laptops in Computex, and a "Copilot" button, pressed and jumped out of Microsoft's self -developed Copilot GPT program, but no Microsoft global high -level driving came to the scene.

In the future, what can really stand in the bubble in the future will be marginal operations AI (EDGE AI) and robots.The application of the former is to directly deploy the artificial intelligence algorithm and model on the edge operations, including sensors, radio gates, and industrial computers.

Jian Lifeng pointed out that AI will need various hardware. The experience of the past manufacturing and communication hardware in Taiwan is very complete, and Huida just makes a chip, so the cooperation space between Taiwan and Huida has become very large: "Nvidia needs to needTaiwan, Taiwan also needs Nvidia "

and the robot can break the AI ​​bubble, like the last part of Huang Renxun's speech. I invited a row of humanoid robots to come to power. They came from the popular fried chicken Figure, Boston Power, Fourier Smart, Yuhu Technology, etc.The godfather shouted "Let AI proceed from virtual space to the physical world."

Why did Huang Renxun arrange this bridge in his speech?Jian Lifeng believes that because ChatGPT does not have a business model, although it can generate the program and the content is very powerful, there are not many people paying.Once ChatGPT is installed on a robot, the advantage is to make AI realize.

At present, the factory cannot find the workers or restaurants who cannot find the disk, and the dilemma of cleaning aunt in the building can be solved by the arrival of AI robots.From this point of view, many smart Internet of Things and AI robotics companies in Taiwan can benefit, such as Yanhua and Guangming.

"The Light of New Taiwan" is going ahead on the road, but you still have to see through the fog and choose carefully to continue to polish this sign.

This article comes from the July of 2024's vision magazine.The cultural business group in Taiwan will hold the 222nd " Chinese Leaders' Far -see Summit ", Singapore Union Newspaper is a media partner.