Although there was a local war during the Cold War, the new world war was always difficult to become a climate.As a result, the Cold War has become more of a national soft power match, and soft power also determines the final victory.From this to observe the new round of camp confrontation, hard power is still important, but the soft power will still play a more critical winning role.
There is a relatively obvious camp and trend in the contemporary world, which is an indisputable fact.However, the background of the camp has a lot of new complexity and changes compared to the distinctiveness of the Cold War against the pattern.During the Cold War, China proposed the division of the "three worlds", that is, the two superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union as the first world, Europe, Japan, Australia, etc. are the second world, including other Asia -Africa -Rathered developing countries, including ChinaThree worlds.
Time has changed today. After the high global development of the Cold War for about 30 years after the experience, there are three major camps in the world: the United States, the European Union and India -Pacific developed countries;The camp; the so -called global southern country is the third camp.
Looking back now, you can notice that the "three world" division of the "three worlds" proposed in China was basically based on the more traditional national hard power as the measurement of classification standards.Insufficient consciousness or avoiding talk.Such a so -called macro situation judgment must be one -sided and superficial.
The end of the Cold War that "the West does not fight, and the Soviet Union fails to defeat", so it also surprised many people at the time, because this is clearly the consequences of the soft power of both sides, not the hard strength decisive battle.The end of the game.The profound and timeless revelation is indeed worthy of fully comprehend all parties in the new round of camp confrontation.
The confrontation between camps does not mean worldwide war. This seems to have accepted full lessons after the end of World War II.The ending of the World War II was the final victory of justice and anti -aggression. It announced the failure of the failure of this brutal value concept. In addition, the subsequent world entered the era of nuclear weapons, and it also made the so -called unilateral iron blood conquest.Therefore, although there was a local war during the Cold War, the new World War was always difficult to become a climate.As a result, the Cold War has become more of a state -sophisticated match against power, and soft power also determines the final victory.
From this to observe the new round of camp confrontation, hard power is still important as the foundation, but the soft power will still play a more critical winning role.Compared with the Cold War, the core values and ideological principles of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law are the same as before, and include the practice of continuous vomiting in practice, and continue to lead the trend of world development.
As a challenger, the state of the Soviet Group is almost one of the characteristics of the Soviet Group during the Cold War. It seems that there are more characteristics of their respective characteristics.Russia intends to relive the geopolitical dreams of the Tsarist Russia. China wants to recover the platform for the traditional socialist system. Iran tries to maintain medieval -style political and religious politics and society.
Since the values and interests of each country have different values and interests, why can it form a partner alliance that challenge the first camp?Because there is also a major common point: if you learn to adopt the values and ideological roadmap similar to the first camp, your respective plans and goals will not be achieved and turn into a bubble.Therefore, confrontation between the "threat" (sometimes called the color revolution) brought by the first camp can allow countries to find common language and cooperation motivation in the second camp.
The first camp national challenge dark tide surging
Third camps, the so -called southern countries of the world, are more interesting gray areas.This camp is characterized by the conflict with no significant value and interests with the first or second camp. It focuses on the problems or crisis of the basic levels and facilities of its domestic politics, economy, people's livelihood, education, and facilities.But there is no need to say that since it is necessary to develop, there must be a problem of development path selection.Since last year, both Argentina and Bangladesh have made new national development path choices, and their directions and value have obviously moved closer to the first camp.In any case, these latest changes are also the choice of the people of the third camp, that is, people's hearts determine the destiny of the country.
The country of the first camp is not worry -free, and many difficulties challenge the dark tide.For example, the US presidential election, which is still internally torn, and the British anti -immigrant social riots and racial conflicts; in terms of security, the Russian and Ukraine War, the Crisis of the Iraqi conflict in the East of the Middle East, and the potential Indo -Pacific Pacific PacificRegional security challenges; how to strengthen the modern technology of managing double -edged swords, such as artificial intelligence, biological engineering, space technology; how to effectively prevent global warming, exhaust emissions, nuclear diffusion, and popular plague epidemic.These all require the country of the first camp to conscientiously cope with the control, stabilize and check and balance the second camp, and further strive for assistance and support of the third camp.
Of course, the most mysterious opportunity is the direction and fate of the second camps.From a macro perspective, the challenge of the second camp to the first camp represents the forwarding of human civilization waves. It is a new evolutionary kinetic energy of each leading coquettishness, or a short current and vortex that humans enter the tide of modern civilization during the Cold War period.IntersectionI believe that the times and the future will give fair referees and conclusions.
From a practical point of view, the second camp currently faces several major challenges, and it is even about life and death.The first is that the war -invading war launched by Russian President Putin has really entered the "garbage time".Before August 6, Putin's Ruyi abacus was a high price at the expense of personnel and equipment, and it was dependent on the occupied Ukraine's land and delayed changes.For example, the President of the United States, the change of the policy of helping Ukraine, the confidence of the European Union aid Ukraine may gradually deplete, and the internal disgust of Ukraine, etc., forcing Ukraine to cut the ground.
But Ukraine has launched an attack on weak defensive areas in Russia since August 6, reversing the situation from a strategic situation, making Putin unable to take care of each other.If you transfer the troops from the front line, you will be in the middle of Ukraine, at least to win the time for Ukraine's comprehensive counterattack.If you ignore the cross -border operation of the Ukraine, Putin will face the tremendous pressure and crisis of domestic politics; and Ukraine will return to teeth with teeth, and Russia may have nothing to get in the end.
Iran will avoid excessive external force in person
Another major country in the second camp, Iran, is a rare super villain of human modern civilization.Except for the pursuit of modernization of military weapons and equipment, this country has almost tried to resist the results of modern civilization development in all aspects.Political and religion is the characteristics of the aging system. In terms of social culture and customs, the suppression and persecution of human rights and women's bullying and women often achieve a pointing level.In terms of geographical politics, the current Iranian regime is the biggest promoter behind regional turmoil and terrorist activities. The Lebanon Allah, Gashahaas Group, Yemenhascea armed forces, etc. are all agent forces supported by Iran.However, Iran is more cautious about being in person to avoid exterior force like the Persian Empire that year, so its dark rule may continue for a while.
Then talk about China in the second camp.Some people will ask, how could China go to the second camp?This is a century question, and it is difficult to answer simply.Taking Sino -US relations as an example, the trade war began in 2018 is only one of the factors of China and the United States, and the non -main factor.It is also said that the United States is trying to stop China's rise, so China has no choice but to join the second camp. The overall situation of the world is rising and falling. The second camp is booming, and the first camp has gradually declined.But such publicity is often difficult to explain with reality.For example, since the end of 2022, a large number of illegal immigrants in China who have "routing" in the southern border of the United States have appeared.
For 10,000 steps, China's views and treatment of the outside world are actually relativesecondary.What direction to choose and which camp to join is mainly promoted by China's inherent values, world cognition, ideology and social system.It is said that Marx's original book has proposed three representative ideas: representing the development requirements of advanced social productivity, the direction of the advancement of advanced culture, and the fundamental interests of the most vast people.In the current second camp of the world, the gap between the goals and the three representative standards, China must not help but notice.
The author is an expert in international cultural strategy research and consultation in the United States
