Source: Bloomberg
Although the People's Bank of China has worked hard to cool the rise of long -term bonds, Chinese bond investors still push their yields to a new low to reflect the dim economic growth prospects.
China's benchmark 10 -year Treasury yield on Thursday will be closed at a record low on Thursday, and the 30 -year yield will further fall to the lowest level in nearly 20 years.Earlier, several global banks have lowered China's growth forecast, and Beijing is reportedly considering the reduction of stock mortgage interest rates to ease the real estate crisis that has entered the fourth year.
The People's Bank of China launched the public market's national bond trading operation last month, sold long -term varieties and buy short -term varieties, trying to curb long -term bonds.However, the vigorous demand from domestic investors and the heating of interest rate cuts have weakened the central bank's action effect to a certain extent.
"We believe that the possibility of following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is increasing," said Xing Zhaopeng, a senior strategist of Australia and New Bank.He also said that because of the urgent need to support the economy, the People's Bank of China may put the yield curve control measures in the secondary position.
The betting of interest rate cuts for the People's Bank of China has increased, and it has promoted the five -year -old interest rate interchange (indicator for measuring banks' expected borrowing costs) to the lowest level since 2009.
Some analysts said that the double goals of the People's Bank of China -boosting the economic and curbing bond market -self -contradictions believe that these measures will offset each other.However, the People's Bank of China has also had some impact.Short -term bonds led the rise this week, and the difference between the three -year and 10 -year bonds has gone to the largest level since 2020.
Goldman Sachs Group refers to the approach of the People's Bank of China as the "Chinese -style yield curve control".
"The approach to set the lower limit for the long -term national bond yield of China is effective for the time being, but in the medium term, weak domestic demand and sluggish market sentiment may continue to lower the yield," Chen Xinquan and other strategists are inThe report said.
According to the data of China Bond, China's 10 -year Treasury yield fell to 2.1160%on Thursday. If the closing was below the low point on August 2.1277%, the record will be the lowest.
"Although as widely expected, the central bank is intervening in the market and selling long -term bonds, but for bond yields, the economic situation and policy interest rate direction is the most important."The report said.
He predicts that China's 10 -year Treasury yield will drop to 2%by the end of the year, and to 1.8%by the end of 2025.
