Putin, who is tired of defeating on the Ukrainian battlefield, has not dared to use nuclear weapons so far. Obviously, it is a nuclear deterrent from the West.China ’s nuclear forces are relatively weak, and they ca n’t wait with the United States and Russia at all. How much risk and cost will be in practice, it is self -evident.As far as the above two points are concerned, the author believes that the risk of the outbreak of the outbreak exists, but the objective possibility is not great.
The Atlantic Charter signed by the United States and Britain in August 1941 provided some answers.The charter confirms that all countries (including the defeat in the war) have the same opportunity to "participate in the world trade and obtain world raw materials".This means that because the United States has obtained super national strength through World War II, the goals that the European Peace Conference could not achieve in 1936 finally achieved after the war.The "Hegemonic Stability" provided by the United States has promoted the establishment of the "Global Free Trade System" as an old imperial system alternative.The extensive security guarantee provided by the United States for the allies has more completely changed the internal international relations based on the balance structure for hundreds of years.The peaceful rise of Germany and Japan after the war was achieved within the framework of such a framework of liberalism (hereinafter referred to as "free order").
In 1972, China and the United States were close.Since then, the United States has persistently committed to incorporating China into the global capitalist international system, inducing China to implement an export -oriented economy, and thus integrate it into the global economy.The core of this strategy is the ultimate goal of transforming China into the maintenanceer of the American -led free order-- "maintaining the status quo" a second -rate strong country, so that the soldiers do not destroy a potential opponent.
The biggest feature of the United States is so confident because it is created by one hand, rules -based and multilateral openness, is "easy to join, but hard to overturn".Since the end of World War II, the way Western controls the world is no longer colonial conquest, but to formulate rules for the world to ensure its own technical advantages and hinder the post -developed countries to overtake (except a few countries and regions).Beginning in the late 1980s, the United States and Europe had carefully designed relevant rules in the Uruguay round -round negotiations in the Uruguay round of the Guan Trade Agreement and highly politically politically.In the formulation of rules in the West, the West has the dual advantages of uncomfortable knowledge and soft power, and the dominant position is extremely difficult to be replaced.
Joining the global economy is both an opportunity and a twisted in China, which is a post -developed country.If you cannot recognize the rules and make good use of it, develop and expand as soon as possible to create a strong manufacturing country as Germany, and it is almost hopeless in the first -class power.
Standing in the free order and traveling away from order
However, there are serious flaws in the United States' strategy itself. In the final analysis, China is not a country that is defeated and occupied like Germany. Although it has added globalization in economics, it has maintained high degree of autonomy in politics and military.In other words, China stands in the free order and is separated from order.Therefore, when its national strength (usually measured by economic scale) reaches a certain degree, it is difficult to avoid the "tragedy of the great country politics" that looks like "the trap of the world" -the international politicalReality has nothing to do with ideology.Even if China abandon the rushing, and the "low -end road" that is satisfied with the development of dependence, its extensive industrialization and the political growth of economic growth will also lead to prematurely exhausted domestic resources, forcing China to "go global" as the world factory.Fight for markets and raw materials.
The problem is that the United States -dominated free order can only meet the demand for resources in one or two countries in the scale of the population of Japan -after the war, Germany and Japan are allowed to rise again, and the root cause lies in this.Western strategic scholars have long pointed out that the United States has no intention nor to ensure that China has no desire for world resources.At that time, Wang Qishan, then Chinese Deputy Prime Minister, had clearly informed the US Treasury Secretary Paulson. "If all countries in the world, including large powers such as China, India, and Indonesia, have wanted to live an American life, and the four planets are not enough."Coincidentally, the then US President Barack Obama also made a similar statement while visiting Australia in April 2010, stating that "The Planet Just Can n’t Sustain IT."
In view of China's huge geographical and population scale, the competition for world resources and markets caused by the global economy will inevitably cause fierce competition with the West in geopolitics and economy; China is in response to national strength enhancement and guarantee resource input inputThe expansion of the large -scale arms of the conduct also makes it impossible to stop at a large country with a "maintaining the status quo" -the two have so far that the conflict between China and the international system is inevitable.
Will the intensification of competition in the great power lead to the Third World War?
I have a negative attitude towards this.
First of all, in terms of true national strength, "half -edge" China is not another 45 years later in Germany and Japan. It can independently challenge Britain and the United States before World War II -whether in technology or military -let alone compare.Today's globalization is different from the past, it is reflected in the deep international division of labor based on different links of the industry chain.The key technical fields of the West and the high -end manufacturing that are difficult to replacement can avoid being stuck in China through "decoupling" and "risks"; almost all products made in China can be replaced.What's more, compared with the former "revisionist power", not only the food cannot be self -sufficient today, many industrial raw materials, core components, manufacturing equipment, and technology patents have rely on imports, and international settlement related to import and export trade is even more.It is difficult to get rid of the financial system controlled by the West -so many fatal weaknesses, it must not make people doubt the will and capabilities of the World War of World War I "half -margin".From the Sino -US trade war to the Ukrainian war, the gap between China and Russia and the real national strength of the West have been exposed.Once it is involved in the world war, the West will inevitably implement a comprehensive technical blockade, trade embargo, and route blocking. The half -edged economy may not be in chaos; how will it win the hot war?It is conceivable -from the interests of the nation, the far -sighted politicians will naturally choose to avoid war rather than seeking war.
The US premium -based nuclear strike has a logical basis
Secondly, "Make The World SAFE for Democracy" is the ideological belief of the United States since President Wilson.Now President Biden proposed the division of democratic dictatorship, emphasizing that winning the New Cold War related to the world and human destiny -the great determination cannot be underestimated.In particular, the United States seriously learned the lessons of the Cold War, and never suppressed the "rational impulse" of nuclear weapons first.Eisenhower has made it clear that as long as the Soviet Union launched an attack on Western Europe, the United States would not hesitate to immediately use nuclear weapons, because once Western Europe was lost, the United States who retreated to the country survived as a country, and there was no choice.One way.At the end of 2001, the Bush Government issued a nuclear situation evaluation report, which will be included in the country where the seven countries such as China and Russia will be included in the country that will be combated by the starter will be combined, which is similar to this logic.Recently, some American strategic scholars such as Matthew Kroenig publicly advocated that when the Taiwan Strait conflict first used nuclear weapons, it was by no means a word of scary.
Russian President Putin, who was defeated on the Ukrainian battlefield, did not dare to use nuclear weapons so far. Obviously, it was a nuclear deterrent from the West.China ’s nuclear forces are relatively weak, and they ca n’t wait with the United States and Russia at all. How much risk and cost will be in practice, it is self -evident.As far as the above two points are concerned, the author believes that the risk of the outbreak of the outbreak exists, but the objective possibility is not great.
Is globalization the cause of peace or the source of war?
Globalization exactlyIs it the cause of peace or the source of war?This is a problem worth pondering.The failure of rebuilding the global economy between the two wars was of course the economic root of World War II, but the economic interdependence of the economy exceeded the current first wave of globalization, and it also failed to stop the outbreak of World War I.However, the third wave of globalization that emerged in the 1980s may prevent new world wars from occurring -not because of the interdependent world economy curbing war, but because of the serious interdependence between core countries and (semi -) marginal countries.Symmetric -it is popular to say "who cannot be separated from whom" -Surging "revisionist power" can only stop, and eventually serve the free order.
Nevertheless, the unprecedented inequality caused by the third wave of globalization has become a worldwide source of chaos -this is by no means human gospel.Reflecting globalization, between social democracy and open global economy, creatively rebuild a new balance (the proposition of Harvard University Development Economist Danny Rodrick) may become the hope of creating permanent peace.
