Before taking office in Kishida, people have high hopes for his foreign policy.As for whether he handed over a satisfactory answer, he might be judged by historians in the future.
Japanese Prime Minister Kishida announced that he would not participate in the Presidential Election of the Liberal Democratic Party, which means that the Kishida government, which came to power in October 2021, will end in power in the fall of this year.Japan holds the House elections every four years, and the last election was held in October 2021.Therefore, the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Prime Minister of Japan, will be generated at least in the 2025 autumn election.This also means that Kishida transferred power one year in advance.However, the Japanese Prime Minister has the right to dissolve the parliament, so the next Prime Minister may also dissolve the parliament before the fall of 2025 and hold the House elections.
Looking back at Kishida's three -year prime minister's term, experience major incidents such as recovering from the epidemic, the Ukrainian war from February 2022, and the Hiroshima Summit in May 2023.In these three years, Japan's comprehensive national strength has fallen sharply, GDP (GDP) has fallen to the fourth place in the world, and the yen exchange rate has plummeted.But on the other hand, before Kishida ruling, no one could imagine that he would introduce so many policies.The reason why he said is because he is the largest liberalist Hongchi Association in the Liberal Democratic Party, but it has achieved remarkable results in the field of military security, which is incredible.Specific results include the launch of the three -document modification case of security in December 2022, and formulated a policy to increase national defense expenses to 2%of the GDP (GDP).These policies are implemented under the intense military security environment caused by the Ukrainian war.
As the Ukrainian war broke out, in order to prevent the future "East Asia", the characteristics of the Kishida government in diplomacy are consistent with the United States and developed countries.However, starting from the Hiroshima Summit, Japan has adjusted some policy tracks, restored the only non -European and American countries in the Seventh -way Group, and showed an independent side in the Middle East issue.In addition, it can be said to be an important achievement of Kishida diplomacy with South Korean President Yin Xiyue and greatly improving Japan and South Korea.
However, the Kishida government has not achieved the expected goal of China.Kishida stated in his speech in October 2021 that he hopes to establish a stable relationship with China and explain that "working with a country with common values, adhere to the correct claim of China, strongly call on China to take responsible actions, while at the same timeIt is also necessary to maintain dialogue and cooperate around many common topics. "In the same month, he reached an agreement on constructing a "constructive, stable Japanese -China relations" in the concluding constructive opinion with Chinese President Xi Jinping.However, in the next year, there was no head of exchanges between the middle of Japan.It wasn't until November 2022 that Kishida finally held a head talks with Xi Jinping, but the "constructive and stable relationships" he proposed and the importance of "the importance of peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait", as well as the Chinese detention of the Japanese, allFailure to achieve specific results.
There are two main reasons for restricting Kishida diplomacy to China.First, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, although China and Russia did not form an alliance, it is generally believed that China supports Russia on the international stage to allow Russia to continue the war.Even so, the heads and ministers of European and American countries still have to communicate with China and continue their dialogue, while Japan -China leader and ministerial dialogue have performed negatively.
Another reason is based on domestic domestic factors.Due to the poor impression of Japanese citizens to China, whether the Kishida government, who was born in the Kishida government of Liberalist factions, was "pro -China" very strictly examined.In addition, Kishida faces the crisis of the House elections at any time, which makes it difficult for him to start a positive diplomacy against China.
However, as mentioned earlier, Kishida put forward the views of distinguishing between China and Russia at the Hiroshima Summit.The joint statement of the summit clearly states: "We are willing to care frankly China, recognize the importance of expressing our concerns directly to China, and prepare to build a constructive and stable relationship with China."For the purpose, there is no hinder China's economic progress and development. "At the same time, the statement also expressed various concerns about the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the Chinese human rights issues.
From the perspective of Kishida's speech, "working with a country with universal values, adhering to the correct claims on China, and strongly calling on China to take responsible actions", it can be said that the results are achieved.However, the problem is highlighted in the second half of the content described in the speech of the policy of policies, that is, "Continue the conversation and cooperate with the common topics."In the Japanese and middle -headed talks held in San Francisco in November 2023, although the keywords of "strategic mutual benefit relationships" were restored to locate Japanese -China relations, they did not come up with specific actual results.
Kishida should have visited Mongolia and Central Asia in early August this year. However, due to the possible large earthquakes in Japan, he canceled his visit plan.If this visit is realized, it will undoubtedly have a positive impact on Japan -China relations, but the Kishida government will eventually fail to reach this step.
Before Kishida came to power, people had high hopes for "Diplomacy Kishida".As for whether he handles a satisfactory answer sheet, he may have to keep the future historian judgment.
The author is a professor at the University of Tokyo
