Kishida Cabinet is basically the extension and strengthening of the Abe route. His Xiaye and the pigeon in the Liberal Democratic Party are not related to the growth of the eagle power.From this perspective, the retention of Kishida, which originally played the role of the transitional prime minister, had an impact on the direction of the policy direction of Japan and foreign countries.

In the economic downturn, the rise in prices, the depreciation of the yen, coupled with the rare early warning of the islands that may occur in a large earthquake, the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, who was originally canceled the foreign visits on the grounds of dealing with the earthquake.The day before the 15th (Japanese defeat anniversary, the Japanese known as the "Final War Day"), it was announced that it would not participate in the election of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party at the end of September.This means that Kishida will be announced after the birth of the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (of course).

Aiming at the "political earthquake" that occurred in the Japanese Islands Earthquake in the future and the first "political earthquake" that occurred in Nagita Town (where the political power center in Japan is located), although the parties felt somewhat suddenly, it was not particularly unexpected.There are two reasons: one is the support rate of Kishida Cabinet that has been hovering recently in the "dangerous waters" of 20%to 30%; 'The second is the Prime Minister of the Fifth largest valve in the Liberal Democratic Party, regardless of his two major major in the party to the partyThe valve is the Abe (Qinghe Policy Research Society) and the Masheng School (Zhizhi Association).

Knowing the difficulty and retreating strength

From this perspective, Kishida announced in advance that he would not participate in the party president election in advance. It is not so much that it is not so self -knowledge, that is, it is not true.As for what he said when he announced that he would not compete for the party's president, it was designed to save the credibility of the Liberal Democratic Party (because of the poor image due to political funds scandal), and it was not difficult for people to see that it was just a gesture that politicians could not be described.The so -called "as the person in charge of the party, I must not hesitate to be responsible for the political fund scandal within the party. To do this, I will not run, it is the first step that the party will change."Give yourself a step down.A Japanese politician pointed out at a pointed out that Kishida emphasized that "responsibility for the party's political fund scandal" and not seeking the announcement of re -election president. As the then autumn of 1982, the then Prime Minister Suzuki, who was also born in Hongchi,It is very different to announce that it will not run for the election.Kishida's announcement this time will not leave a beautiful talk in the history of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Nevertheless, for Kishida, on the grounds of cope with the huge earthquake, it was temporarily canceled in the country and stayed in the country. In disguise, the news that was about to retreat was surprised.The reason is that according to the convention, many disadvantaged politicians will never give up the opportunity to stay for retention less than the last moment.In particular, compared with the last Liberal Democratic Party president of the Liberal Democratic Party, which was positioned as the transitional Prime Minister from the beginning, Kishida's political IQ could not help but say that it was better than that of Sakuyai.In 2021, in order to reserve office, Tan Yiwei also came to a cabinet on the eve of the steps down, betrayed the second -order leader of the second -order leader who supported him, eliminated his party secretary general, and promised several valves he wanted to please.In the end, this small movement is not only unable to keep the throne of the president, but also the infamous name of "no faithfulness and righteousness".

Master of Political Games Politics

Of course, Kishida Wenxiong, who is better than Yoshiyuki Izimo, is also a master of playing with political games.Kishida is very clear. The reason why he can climb on the party's throne in the autumn of 2021 does not rely on his own strength, but because the Liberal Democratic Party ’s largest valve Abe and the Secondist Matthem are inconvenient.Do not want to let the strong men participate in the results of the competition.To this end, Kishida must not look at the faces of the leaders of the two major valves everywhere when setting up the cabinet.On the balance of rewarding and taking into account the power of the factional valve, it can be said that the Liberal Democratic Party has been in the front of the scenes behind the scenes and the basic model. The level of operation of Kishida in this area is not inferior to the predecessor.In July 2022, the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was also attacked by the Gunner Mountain in Nara City. Kishida quickly decided to hold a national funeral for Abe, which can be regarded as a masterpiece of Kishida to the former Prime Minister and his factional power forces.Sure enough, the Kishida Cabinet was relatively smooth at saving. The Liberal Democratic Party used Abe's death. It also won a lot of sympathy votes in the House elections and obtained "an absolutely stable majority."

There is a disadvantage of everything in everything. It is closely close to the Abe's Kishida, and it must also be the negative image and scandal of the large valves such as Abe.

The origin of black gold has a long history

First of all, with the gradually exposure of Abe's assassination, the sights of all parties are concentrated on the motivation of Abe on the Assassin Mountain, as well as the inseparable relationship between the Liberal Democratic Party and South Korea's unified teachings.In view of the scourge brought by the political and religious cooperation of the Japanese military era before the war, the post -war peace constitution stipulates the separation of politics and religion; in fact, the South Korean unified religion and the Liberal Democratic Party (especially Abe's grandfather Kishimo and its followers) are deep.Special relationships.In order to calm down the scholarly and discussions, Kishida had to order the relationship between the Liberal Democratic Party ’s self -declaration and unified teaching, and said that he would cut off the exchanges with unified education in the future.However, all parties believe that in fact, the official has not really investigated and cured this.

Secondly, due to the Democratic Party's political funds scandal, especially to raise political funds through the sale of banquet vouchers, but not reported in accordance with the law, the suspected "rebate" problem has been repeatedly exposed.And take the lead in dissolving the valve of his Hongchi Club.Immediately afterwards, each valve (except the aspirations led by Ako Taro) also drawn gourds and announced their dissolution, but everyone who is familiar with the Japanese political situation knows that this is just a face -to -face, and it does not touch the essence of the problem and the specific reform plan.In terms of the black gold scandal that flows into individual politicians' pockets this time, Kishida not only issued a statement, announced the dissolution of the valve, and when the first meeting of the House Political Ethics Review Society, it was exposed as a prime minister to show their attention.There are further specific actions.

Of course, the so -called political fund scandal is not from Kishida Cabinet (Kishida School is not the protagonist of this scandal), but a stubborn illness that is inherently politically in the Liberal Democratic Party.Opening the history of the post -war Liberal Democratic Party, the incidents of corporate contributions, collusion between politics and business, and politicians have never stopped.Due to the great chance of being in politics, the more bribery or so -called legitimate contributions obtained. Of course, the more the so -called legal contributions; because the small valves are small, the chaebol has little interest in them, but it is relatively "clean"At the time, he can come forward to support the political situation (it is still supported and manipulated by the big valve behind it) in order to create the image of the "self -purification" and "fresh cabinet" of the Liberal Democratic Party.At the same time, Japanese media, which aims to assist the official stability of the political situation, will also vigorously create and render "new expectations" and transfer the national and civil TV line.This is the basic formula for Japanese politics and money scandals after World War II, and it is also the most common landscape of Japanese mass media and political situations.

In other words, in the face of the money scandal of the Liberal Democratic Party, the most common method of exercising is to change the horse midway (the replacement), so that the public will be sullen, thereby preserving the truth of the Liberal Democratic Party and covering up money politics.Although Kishida is not the biggest valve with the deepest relationship with money, but in the case of self -knowledge and hopeless renewal of the Prime Minister, he is willing to take the name of the party's interests and take responsibility.A choice.

Kishida staying has nothing to do with the theory of the Eagle

As for the early days of the Kishida Cabinet, some people were born in the Hongchi Society, which was considered "pigeon" because Kishida was considered to be regarded as "pigeon faction".Misunderstanding or misunderstanding.In the three years since Kishida took office, it has vigorously strengthened its defense forces, allows weapons with counterattack capabilities, and increased the defense budget to more than 2%of the GDP (GDP) and revised defense three books to fully illustrate this.These are the only one for military armed conditionsActions, not so much just to follow the established policies of the eagle (Abe and Masheng) in the party, it is better to say that its defense route is not different from the hawk politicians such as Abe.

To put it clearer, the argument and decision of the so -called internal and external policies in the Liberal Democratic Party has gradually diluted and disappeared as early as the sound of "total conservativeization" (that is, "general Liberal Democratic Party") in the Japanese political scene in the 1990s.In 2021, Kishida issued a declaration published on the eve of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party in Malaysia, and directly advocated the amendment to the Constitution and strengthening security. In disguise, the two flags and routes of "paying attention to the economy" and "light armed" that Hongchi would hold high for a long time.

This shows that the Kishida Cabinet is basically the extension and strengthening of the Abe route. His Xiaye and the pigeon in the Liberal Democratic Party are not related to the growth of the eagle power.From this perspective, the retention of Kishida, which originally played the role of the transitional prime minister, had an impact on the direction of the policy direction of Japan and foreign countries.

The author is the Honorary Professor of Japan Longgu University, Honorary Director of the International Communication Research Center of Singaporean Scholars Peking University Journalism Research Association