Joseph Nai: I feel pessimistic in responding to the prospects of the nuclear and not d

Those who have doubts about the feasibility of nuclear non -proliferation should think about this historical lesson.Even if the diffusion cannot be stopped, it can slow down, which can greatly change the situation.

Avril Haines, the National Intelligence Director, recently warned: "Russia needs to be supported on the Ukrainian issue, which forces it to make some latter in China, North Korea, and Iran.Paying; and these concessions may destroy some specifications, including the long -lasting nuclear non -proliferation criteria. "

How much impact does this have?Some theorists have long been skeptical of the efforts to restrict nuclear weapons diffusion, and even believe that nuclear diffusion can become a stable force.They believe that if the fear generated by nuclear weapons is one of the reasons why there is no outbreak of war between the great powers since 1945, it may also copy the same effect at the regional level.India and Pakistan established nuclear balance in the 1990s, and there have been no catastrophic consequences so far.

But can people keep cautious in such a world of "nuclear martial arts pigs"?Former US President Kennedy didn't think so.As he said at a press conference in March 1963: "Unfortunately, in the history of war and human history, war is much more peaceful than peace.The nation is unwilling to accept failure. Then I think the US president of 1970s may have to face a world that may have this type of weapon with this type of weapon.Harm.

Later in the same year, Kennedy signed a treaty for banning atmosphere, which laid the foundation for the birth of the nuclear weapon treaty in 1968.The treaty currently has 191 member states, of which five recognized nuclear weapons countries, the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China, promise not to spread nuclear weapons, and other 186 treaty members promise not to develop nuclear weapons.Israel, India, and Pakistan refused to sign the treaty, and did develop nuclear weapons, and North Korea, which signed the treaty, later exited to develop its nuclear plan.

This has made the total number of nuclear military countries reaching nine. Although it is far from perfect, it is much better than Kennedy's prediction.The defenders of this imperfect system believe that the speed of nuclear diffusion is equally important as the number of nuclear military countries, because higher predictability will improve the prospect of maintaining stability.Saudi Arabia has threatened that once Iran develops nuclear weapons, it will do so.If new nuclear military countries are constantly emerging in various regions, the possibility of accidents and misjudgments will greatly increase.

Haynes clearly mentioned Iran and North Korea.Under the cooperation between China, Russia and the West, both countries have been sanctioned by the United Nations.Until recently, Russia is still a long -term supporter of nuclear non -diffusion.It not only signed a non -diffusion nuclear weapon treaty, but also passed the 1978 Nuclear Supply State Group Standards -the standard requires that the national nuclear equipment supply countries carefully grasped their export policies.But now it has begun to rely on North Korea's military supply to maintain Russian President Putin, which has ended the country's cooperation in nuclear non -diffusion.

Iran has been implementing a nuclear weapon plan based on concentrated uranium for a long time, but the plan is in a decisive state under external pressure.The regime has always carefully controlled the production of highly concentrated uranium to below the threshold required by the nuclear arsenal.However, because Russia relies on Iran's drone, China relies on Iran's oil, and Trump stupidly abolished the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018. In this regard, the international cooperation of non -diffusion has also ruptured.

In addition, some people (may be wrong) believe that if Ukraine retains nuclear weapons inherited during the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it will not be invaded by Russia.If this assumption is approved, the prospect of non -proliferation will deteriorate.

This reminds me of a similar situation in the past (I record it in the memoir of the memoir of the United States).After the outbreak of the petroleum crisis in 1973, everyone generally believed that the world needs to be turned to nuclear energy, but because many people (wrong) believe that global uranium resources are about to be exhausted, so everyone is looking at it.) Relax.

The predictions at the time believed that about 46 countries will be treated post -treatment by 1990.If so, the world will be full of weapon -level materials, and the risks of nuclear diffusion and nuclear terrorism will also grow.In 1974, India became the first country to start five countries listed in the nuclear weapon treaty, and the first country to start the country to be euphemistically called the "peace nuclear explosion".

Soon after that, France agreed to sell a post -processing plant to Pakistan, and then Pakistan Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who had vowed to break India in South Asia even if people across the country could not eat foodNuclear monopoly.In Latin America, Germany is selling a uranium concentration factory to Brazil, and Argentina is also studying.As many other countries quietly explore their options, a nuclear arms competition seems to have begun.

Fortunately, this competition has never become a reality.The nuclear non -diffusion policy promoted by former US President Carter has successfully slowed down.Since the 1970s, there are only two other countries (rather than 25) countries have developed nuclear bombs.When everyone thinks that it is impossible to take any measures for nuclear diffusion, Carter does not think so.With the efforts of the Carter administration, transactions between France, Pakistan and Germany and Brazil were canceled.The United States has established an international committee to study nuclear fuel circulation, thereby reducing the development momentum of post -cricket treatment and using the "proliferation reactor".

Those who do not diffuse their nuclear and doubtful concerns should think about this historical lesson.Even if the diffusion cannot be stopped, it can slow down its speed, which can greatly change the situation.

Author Joseph S. Nye, Jr. is the former dean of Kennedy College Harvard University

English Original: The non-process