If the United States abandon Ukraine, of course, it is different from the appeasement during World War II, but a appeasement of a rotten project.Countries around the world have helped Ukraine for more than two years. If they suddenly give up, they may finally let the United States lose face and loses.From these perspectives, Trump's intention to make Ukraine a abandoned child, it is not easy to implement.Moreover, European countries also know the cold lips.This is a price that everyone cannot bear.
U.S. President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and supported the nomination of Vice President Harris as a Democratic presidential candidate.Biden's retirement is not just to allow global prediction institutions and international political affairs professionals. Even many ordinary public have further determined that Trump's re -entry into the White House is a high probability event.To this end, leaders of countries around the world have also been prepared for a long time to deal with the United States under the leadership of Trump.Will Ukraine strongly supported by the Biden government before?
Ukraine was abandoned. In fact, it was a hot topic before Russia invaded Ukraine (February 24, 2022) and the war, and now it is a hot focus.It now seems that Ukraine is abandoned by the Trump administration. It is also a high probability that the degree of abandonment is light and heavy.
Some signs are not at the end of Qing Ping.Trump has repeatedly claimed that if he was elected, he could end the Russian and Ukraine War in 24 hours.The Washington Post reported on July 7 that people familiar with the matter revealed that Trump said privately that he could force Ukraine to abandon some territories to end the war by pressure.Give it to Russia.
On July 15th, after being nominated for Trump's vice presidential candidate, Wans said in an exclusive interview with Fox TV that he also believed that it should be promoted by Russia and Ukraine.The United States can focus on the real problem, which is China. "China is the "biggest problem" and "biggest threat" in the United States, and the United States supports Ukraine's dispersion.
Secretary of State Brillings see blood even more.He talked for the first time at the Aspert Security Forum on July 20 that Trump's possibility of recovering the U.S. assistance commitment to Ukraine after winning the election.Any US government will formulate its own policies, "it is impossible to determine what to do in the future.""If we take back the promise of assistance to Ukraine ... I guess this possibility. However, fortunately we still have about 20 allies to continue to do this."
On the other hand, in the previous term, what kind of personality and behavior of Trump has been known globally.Proficiency is preferred, and morality is second. Of course, whether it is beneficial to its individual and the United States in advance, of course, there are still exaggerations.
From the characteristics of Trump, Ukraine is likely to become an abandoned son in the United States.However, even so, if Trump enters the White House, he will not abandon Ukraine, but only requires Ukrainian President Zelianzkiski to abandon the border area of Crimea and Donbas.
Calculate the gains and losses
Of course, this is "very Trump", that is, his businessman's character determines that it is necessarily the case.Biden's U.S. government has injected the most to Ukraine, which seems to be huge investment in Trump.According to the Kill World Institute of Economics (IFW), it has listed and quantified humanitarian, financial and military assistance (including weapons, ammunition and equipment), which has promised and transferred to Ukraine as of April 2024, and ranked first in the United States.Since February 2022, the Bayeng government has promised to provide Ukraine with more than 42 billion euros (about S $ 61 billion) for military assistance, and nine countries ranked in the United States.Such as Germany's 17.7 billion euros, 9.1 billion euros in the UK.
A businessman who can use benefits first and even see the benefits of profit can make these huge investments be drifting in vain?Of course, there must be some returns and profits.For example, Ukraine's promise of the reconstruction of the post -war is mainly based on the United States.More importantly, if Ukraine does not agree with Trump's plan, Trump will obviously not let Bayeon's previous assistance and investment become black.If Ukraine insists on fighting, Trump has to continue to support, even if money and material quantity have decreased greatly; otherwise, with its savvy businessmen, this bloodless investment cost will be too large.Unless Trump believes that there will always be a greater sinking cost in Ukraine, it will consider abandoning Ukraine in an all -round way.
On the other hand, even if you see the benefits, it does not mean that Trump does not consider morality at all, that is, how to establish and maintain the image of the United States to host justice and maintain world order in the world.Based on the United Nations Charter, support weakness, support righteousness, and help to prevent anyone from infringing the territorial integrity or political independence of any member country in a force, and it is also the basic spirit of "peace under the United States".
If Ukraine succumbs to Russia's force and let it go, or to force Ukraine to exchange peace with land, the image of the United States' responsible great power will collapse, and the justice face since the Second World War will become ugly.This is also a gain and loss that Trump abandoned Ukraine.
Another more important gains and losses are that if you abandon Ukraine, it will largely repeat the history of World War II.At the beginning, Britain and France believed that Hitler would be satisfied after receiving the Su Taiwan area, and successively published a Declaration and French Declaration with Germany and Germany, thinking that it could avoid the outbreak of European outbreaks, but in March 1939After the German occupation of Czechoslovakia, it was Wanglongwangshu and invaded Poland on September 1st. Britain and France were forced to declare war against Germany.
If the United States abandon Ukraine, of course, it is different from the appeasement during World War II, but a appeasement of a rotten project.With the help of brothers in the world, the world has assisted Ukraine for more than two years, and only the first 10 countries to assist Ukraine have reached nearly 100 billion euros.If the United States suddenly abandon Ukraine, it is possible to make Russia win, and the latter's ambitions will never be limited to Ukraine, but Eastern Europe and Western European countries;Lost again, "making the United States great again" is just a joke of Trump.
If the Trump administration can bear all this in the future, it can give up Ukraine.However, as the former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Herbust, also said on the Aspert Safety Forum: "If Trump cuts off the aid of Ukraine, Ukraine will collapse, which will be a major failure caused by Trump to the United States.This failure will make the Bayeng government's embarrassment and damage caused by the unable to withdraw from Afghanistan.
From these perspectives, Trump has no intention to make Ukraine a abandoned child, and it is not easy to implement.Moreover, the European Union and European countries will not make Ukraine a abandoned son, and they know that the lips are cold.When Ukraine is abandoned, the next step of Russia's iron hoof will slap their country, and their people will be slaves like Ukraine for generations.This is a price that everyone cannot bear.Therefore, Ukraine's probability will not become international abandoned children.
The author is Beijing scholar
