The current status quo of Chinese housing, one is how to digest in the face of some cities that have serious excess housing, and the other is how cities that are short of housing supply to some extent can increase supply.It can be seen that the real estate reform that determines the real estate is to resolve these problems and make comprehensive and specific deployment in institutional reform.The core of the real estate reform must promote the complete steering of the Chinese real estate market.
The Mainland Government Central Committee reviewed and approved on July 21 on July 21 on July 21 on the Mainland Government's decision to further deepen reform and promote modern Chinese -style modernization (hereinafter referred to as decisions) anchoring the goal of socialist modernization in 2035, focusing on deployment deployment, focusing on deploymentIn the next five years of major reforms in China, real estate reform is the main content of these important reforms.
The major reform of the Chinese property market in the next five years is to prevent the new model of resolving real estate risks, restructuring the development of the Chinese real estate market, and creating conditions to rebuild the Chinese real estate market.To achieve these policy goals, the real estate market must be fundamentally transformed in nature.It can be said that after the Third Plenary Session, the nature of the real estate market will fundamentally change, which will have a huge impact on China's economic growth methods and economic industrial structures, residential wealth concepts and living conditions, and we must pay close attention to this.
From 2003 to the end of 2021, the price of China's real estate market has only risen, which has continued for nearly 20 years; the biggest driving force for rising lies in the fully financial melting of housing nature, and the excessive expansion of bank credit.For example, the balance of bank loans from 1847.5 billion yuan (RMB of RMB, about S $ 342.1 billion, the same below) in 2003 rose to 2.4873 billion yuan at the end of May 2024, which was 135 times in 2003.Housing is over -ended, and the real estate market has naturally become a market speculation.During this period, in the eyes of Chinese residents, buying a house to make money became a kind of worship, and almost all residents poured into the real estate market through financial leverage.This has created an unprecedented prosperity of the real estate market and promoted the rapid economic growth. However, it also created a huge real estate bubble, causing severe excess housing and huge risks in the financial market.
Since the second half of 2021, when the Chinese government introduces policies to prevent real estate risks and extrudes real estate bubbles, the market has completely reversed, housing prices have continued to fall, investment demand for house purchase suddenly disappears, housing investment and sales have declined sharply.Real estate companies' defaults and bankruptcy have emerged, a large number of housing inventory increases, and the real estate market is expected to reverse, which has caused the nature of the real estate market to completely change.For more than two years, with the general decline in housing prices nationwide, and the demand for investment in house purchase has disappeared, the government has introduced a series of epic market rescue policies, but it is not available.Because in fact, the Chinese real estate market has completely transformed into a market dominated by consumers. The government wants to boost the market through previous stimulus housing investor policies and stimulate the purchase needs of housing consumption. The effect must be very small.
Because, although national housing prices have fallen for more than two years, many cities have also fallen greatly, but the current level of housing prices in most cities is still very far away from most housing consumers.For example, in more than two years, many cities and local real estate bubbles have basically been shattered. Cities with housing and real estate housing prices abound.However, whether such housing prices have reached the level of payment of most people, it is quite uncertain.
For example, the most widely circulated case on the Internet is that Tianjin Wuqing has a 80 -square -meter housing. From 2016 to 2017, house prices reached 20,000 yuan per square meter.10,000 yuan.After the price turned sharply, when the epidemic was unsealed, the market value of the house fell to 720,000 yuan, while the latest transaction price was only 390,000 yuan, a decrease of more than 75%.Some analysts believe that although this situation is the phenomenon, it also means that the price of housing in many cities has completely fell over.But this is not the case.
We can use the UN housing price income ratio to calculate.According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the per capita disposable income of the nation's residents in the first quarter of 2024 was 1539 yuan. If this is calculated, the per capita disposable income of the nation's residents in 2024 is about 45,000 yuan.The disposable income is about 90,000 yuan.The United Nations can bear the income ratio of housing prices from 3 to 6. The per capita of Chinese family couples can afford the income ratio of house prices is 270,000 to 540,000 yuan.In other words, this set of housing fell to 390,000 yuan, although the total price fell 75%, but only residents with a disposable income above the average can be able to bear it.In cities such as Wuqing, Tianjin, due to the underdeveloped economy, residents' disposable income level is basically under the national average.Therefore, although this house fell to 390,000 yuan, it was not that most residents in the city had the ability to pay.This is the situation in Tianjin, and many third- and fourth -tier cities in China are the case.
House prices are moved down six to 10 years to complete
It can be said that because the real estate bubbles of most cities in China in the past are too large, once the housing is declined, the level of housing prices in many cities is a trend, and it takes six to 10 years to this downward movement to only six to 10 years.The completion of the market clearing can make the housing consumption demand in most cities be released.In other words, in terms of the current market situation, the decline in house prices may be a long process.This also means that Chinese real estate has actually become a market that is completely dominated by housing consumers.
Also, the decision -making deployment is to build a new model of China's real estate development, that is, farmers' essential citizenization to reshape the real estate market.The prerequisite for the new model of real estate development in the future is to decide and make housing a consumer product that fully needs to improve residents' lives.In the decision, this is very clear.Because, as a product, housing has a completely different characteristic from other products. Housing is both consumer goods and investment products.The same housing is different in its nature. Its supply and demand relationship, pricing foundation, and pricing method are completely different.
The new housing development model is to build a diversity, multi -level, and diversified housing consumer market.The diversity of housing consumption is mainly to choose a way for each resident to choose to meet the demand for living according to their economic constraints and personal preferences.Therefore, it was decided to put the "establishment of a housing system for rent and purchase and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development" in the first article of the real estate system reform.As far as China is concerned, to establish a housing system for rent -and -purchase, the core problem may be to establish an institutional arrangement that is completely conducive to housing leasers.In this regard, there will be a series of new system innovations in the future real estate reform.
Also, the Chinese real estate market is reshaped through citizenization of rural population and the reform of the land system.Because, as far as the current cities are concerned, in cities below the third line, housing is basically in severe excess.It is understood that the living conditions in these cities are basically met (many cities are basically one person, not one set, very few exceptions), so in these cities, the demand for affordable housing is also small.The shortage of housing is basically in first -tier cities and a few second -tier cities.Therefore, the current status quo of Chinese housing, one is how to digest in the face of some cities with severe excess housing, and the other is how cities with shortage of housing supply increase the supply.It can be seen that the real estate reform that determines the real estate is to resolve these problems and make comprehensive and specific deployment in institutional reform.
It can be said that the core of determining the real estate reform is to promote the complete steering of the Chinese real estate market and transform into the leadership of housing consumption.This change will have a huge impact on all aspects of China's socio -economic life.
The author is a Chinese economist
