Recently, a major event happened in Wuhan, China, that is, the driverless taxi launched by the radish fast running company, almost subverting the entire online car rental market, worried that artificial intelligence snatched a large number of drivers for their rice bowls, the first time they faced new technologies, they faced new technologiesBringing threats.
According to relevant statistics, in the past month, the order volume of radish running is more than 3 million orders.The market has been occupied by driverless taxis.A large number of online car drivers said that the amount of receiving orders was significantly reduced, and the income was nearly one -third compared to the previous shrinkage.
I asked relatives in Wuhan and found that if you refer to the current development trend, you can believe that the taxi driver and long -distance truck driver will really decrease significantly in the future.
The first is that the unmanned cars running for radish are very obvious.First, safety is guaranteed, and unmanned cars are very stable. They will make reasonable judgments and operations based on the surrounding environment in advance. Whether there is a car suddenly turning or a pedestrian on the road, it can quickly respond to responding to it quickly.Come over and make braking accurately.For this reason, there was almost no accident in the ride of radish in Wuhan. The problems that occurred were basically hit by someone's car, or a strange pedestrian who encountered a snake -shaped position.
Second, it is not only safe, but also very cheap.According to relatives, the same journey, if you use Didi to call a car software, the price is almost 25 yuan; and if you run fast with radish, it only takes 12 yuan, which is almost folded.
Why is it so cheap?The reason is very simple: radish running is unmanned, saving the labor cost directly, and unattended taxis are almost 24 -hour operation. Compared with ordinary taxis, the number of orders has increased by nearly 1.5 times.A space to reduce costs.Therefore, people in Wuhan now know that it is cheaper to run radish for driving.This is the core reason that it can quickly seize the market.
more profoundly and extensively affecting social forms
The emergence of artificial intelligence taxis is enough to change the form of urban and citizens. It is comparable to the appearance of Taobao that year, or it will have a deeper and wider influence on China's social form.
If this car is running 24 hours on the street, commercial competition will lower the price, and then the price is reasonable to close to the buses. A large number of people may not need to buy their own car.It is troublesome to own a car. Various costs, parking and charging troubles each year must have insurance, and the trouble of driving and traveling traffic.
Why is there a traffic jam?Because there are too many cars on the road, there are only one person in most cars.If you use information technology to be arranged reasonably, more than half of vehicles can be reduced on the road.If the entire road is transported, there is no need for so many cars at all, one tenth may be enough.The development of intelligent technology can solve this problem and greatly reduce social resources consumption.
This will be a huge social change.Like any great technological progress, unmanned taxis and future unmanned trucks will greatly increase consumer benefits and improve social efficiency.Like Taobao's appearance, it has rebuilt human -machine trust in some way. In the future, society does not need so much private car.
As long as it is social change, there will be adjustments to the distribution of interests.Now, taxi drivers are facing the challenge of no rice bowl.However, standing at a high degree of history, every social change faces this situation, which cannot stop the advancement of technology, because productivity development is the backbone of promoting society.Women's workers in the industrial revolution are facing laid -offs. They do not prevent textile machines from being popularized. Workers will not prevent the machine industry from coming.
It must help the taxi driver transition
For taxi drivers, this is indeed extremely cruel.Society should help this group for a certain time so that they can go through this difficult period.This is the test of the Chinese government and Chinese social management in the times.
Every social change will inevitably face the coordination of interests between members of society.Why can mobile phone payment be promoted in many countries so far?Because the interest relationship cannot be quickly coordinated, the vested interest groups block the progress of society.This is the so -called influence of production relations on productivity.
Who can quickly solve these social problems, who is the leader to promote the development of social productivity; which country has such an innovation ability to lead the future world.Because the liberation of productivity is the force to truly promote social progress and cannot be blocked.
It can be estimated that the truck driver will be replaced, or the workload that can be connected will be greatly reduced.The truck driver has too much work, overloading, fatigue driving, etc. This time, there is a chance to solve it at the same time.At the same time, due to the popularity of unmanned technology, freight costs will definitely decrease.At the same time, countless related industries in smart cities, smart logistics, and smart warehouses will achieve huge management benefits due to the reduction in transportation costs.
People focusing on worrying about the main concerns: forming capital monopolies, causing a lot of unemployment, and derived social management, that is, the government has the ability to deal with and complete technical upgrade and smooth employment.
The result of maturity of technology is that unmanned technology cannot be monopolized by a company.Now just in the Chinese market, there are several people who have similar abilities.With the further development of technology, it will become mature technology, that is, technology that companies with a certain scale can master.Therefore, there should be no possibility of technical monopoly.
Unemployment is indeed a big problem, and it may be a group and concentrated outbreak. If it is not handled well, it will have a significant impact on society.Because online ride -hailing, express delivery, and takeaway are the storage pools of unemployment problems in society. Many other industries in other industries are easier to enter this industry; now they are impacting again, the problem is more serious.
This is also the main test of government administrative capabilities. Whether this problem can be better solved is the key to whether this "social -technical change" can be successful.People can explore more methods, for example, just like the Western proposal to tax on the robot, tax on unmanned cars, or levy specific social management expenses for such operating companies, for a certain period of time to transfer job training within a certain period of time.Compensate the current taxi driver with unemployment subsidies, and gradually reduce this cost with the age, or use this transformation fee as the pension of the driver.Unmanned taxi companies can digest this cost, because the market has broad development prospects, and the capital market can also play leverage and guidance.
The final question is the government's ability to complete this social change or transformation?Perhaps not every government in the world has this ability, but the government -oriented government -oriented government -oriented government has the ability to accept challenges. While accepting unprecedented technological changes, we should balance as much as possible and adjust social interests.Welcome to the arrival of a new era.
The author is a researcher at the Western International Financial Research Institute in Chengdu
