The rise of right wings and increasingly popular, which is closely related to the demand for solving the way of solution in the dual economic and political dilemma.The Russian and Ukraine War is a turning point. It is difficult to completely stifle the public opinion of the survival crisis. The two factors are destined that Europe will inevitably turn right, but the process will be very slow and tortuous.
Le Pen was blocked by France's Right Right, which made the European Left Alliance relieved: Macron disbanded the parliament, and finally blocked Le Pen's national alliance outside the Gate of the French government, winning the leftist in the next two yearsThe interests of the left in Europe will not be subverted for the time being.However, Macron must face a new dilemma, and co -govern with a suspended parliament with a "left, middle and right three -point world".Both have great impacts.
EU's right turn is a strategy narrative for the left election
In the past three months, the topic of the Western media has fired the topic of "EU Right Turning", which has made many people who lack of understanding in Europe's current situation really think that "rightist turning the sky."In fact, Le Pen -National Alliance, the "extreme right", is at best the "nationalist" and "Europeanist" that globalists do not like.European media constantly use the narrative of "rising right -wing radicals will cause Europe to be dangerous" to warn voters, and use the sense of crisis consciousness to re -assemble the left power.Subcerence.
Europe's political hidden rules after World War II are that mainstream politicians must form a "Cordon Sanitaire" during the election to block the right -wing forces outside the European government.The predecessor of the National Alliance (RN) was the National Front (FN, established in 1972), led by Le Pen's father, Jean Mali Le Pen.In the party, there are members of the former Nazi SS in France, who has been the right -istal party party by French society for many years, and is blocked outside the French politics by the "health barrier".Since Le Pen succeeded his father to become the head, in the case of the media, after 10 years of hard work, he "excreted toxins for his father's party."The "detoxification" measures include: In June 2018, the National Front was renamed as the National Alliance, the image was used, and the anti -Semitism was abandoned.Policies, such as strong opposition to immigrants, even proposed that illegal immigrants cannot enjoy free education; advocating nationalism and economic and trade protectionism.In international political positions, she is an opponent of the United States and NATO.Compared with Macron that France (the European Union) should not be the same as the United States (the European Union), the direction is the same, but the attitude is much stronger.
Is the Financial Times former Russian reporter John Lloyd, published by Marina Le Pen, published on the British website Unherd?(Marine Le Pen is Not Far-Right) said that these media warnings that already have some ritual characteristics lack empirical analysis.In the movement of the European right -wing political parties such as the National Alliance, there are almost not many extremely right -wing elements: "They are suspicion of European (alliance), but they are not Brexit. They exclude large -scale immigration policies (which European countries todayThe government does not exclude?Proposal does not pose a threat to the democratic government. "
Laudie pointed out that the National Alliance is no longer regarded as an extremist protest movement.For many people, no matter what the slander said, it provides a credible political program.
Macron's ruling dilemma will weaken the European Union
In order to block Le Pen, Macron was forced to dissolve the parliament to cause the party to suffer severe frustration. In the next two years, he will face the dilemma of severely weakening the ruling ability.Who should he choose to be the Prime Minister now?Without any party to get an obvious majority, any party as the Prime Minister is easily overturned in Congress.This means that France has become a difficult country in the short term.This political dilemma will make France do nothing in the European Union.
In the EU 27, Germany and France are tied with two leaders.Since Merkel's refugee policy in 2015 has caused unimpreced permanent damage to Europe, Germany's political reputation has begun to decline rapidly.Since the Russian and Ukraine War, due to the de -industrialization reasons, the German economy has declined, and Macron, France, has therefore become the "one brother" of the European Union.
Macron follows the route of the right, right, right, and right. This route is also pursued in international politics. It maintains a balance between the United States and China.The United States has an independent foreign policy, and it has also announced that NATO has entered a state of brain death (these these are not fundamental conflict with Le Pen), but they immediately returned to a globalist position as soon as they encountered pressure.His attitude is often criticized in the EU leadership that pursues globalism and pro -beauty stand, but it can contain the beautiful horses of the European Commission Chairman Feng Delin.Now, a weakened French president will have a decline in influence and leadership on the EU, which is very conducive to the left.
The role of the European Parliament is exaggerated by the media narrative
In recent years, the biggest problem in Europe is economic and security issues.There are 720 seats in this year (tenth) European parliament elections, 15 more than the previous session.On the whole, the number of seats in the middle and right and right party groups had a total of 317 seats, an increase of 23 seats from the previous session. The number of seats in the middle, left and left wing groups in the middle, middle, left wing, and left.This situation caused the European media to exclaim "the European Parliament turned right on the political trend."
In fact, the role of the European Parliament is not so great.The EU's administrative and legislative power is concentrated in the hands of the three institutions: the EU Council has legislative power and some administrative powers. It is a decision -making agency. It is composed of the EU head of state or government head. The chairman will be rotated by a member country for half a year.The European Commission is an administrative institution with initial drafting of potential new laws.The European Parliament represents citizens of various countries.In terms of legislation, the European Parliament is the weakest of the three institutions.
According to historical experience, in the European Parliament in the three -party talks with the European Commission and the European Union's Council, it may take months or even years to bargain on legal issues in order to truly achieve an agreement and become a law.What you want.Therefore, despite the increase in right -wing members, the impact on the EU's policies is limited.Because foreign policy is an exclusive field of the European Commission, Feng Delin, a hawk to China, is expected to be the chairman of the European Commission again.The European Parliament does not determine the European Union's foreign policy. Even if members consider and write a large number of foreign policy reports and resolutions, they do not have any binding power.Therefore, the European media rendering that "the right turn will cause huge harm to Europe" is mainly to election and evoke the strategic narrative supported by the camp, not the truth.
New Fear of Zuo Media: The EU will be extremely split
The rise of the right and increasingly popular, which is closely related to the needs of European people in dual economic and political dilemma.For example, French youth has always been the most left in the middle, but one -quarter support Le Pen.The Russian and Ukraine War is a turning point. It is difficult to completely strangle the public opinion of the crisis of survival. The following two factors are destined that Europe will inevitably turn right, but the process will be very slow and twists.
1. Traditionally, the mainstream European political parties have been broken in unanimously in the country and the European Union level.In the current EU 27, the national governments of the six countries have been led by the extreme right -wing parties or their shadows are involved. They are Italy and Finland., Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and Czech Republic.Outside of the Six Kingdoms, the Swedish Democratic Party, the Right -wing of Sweden, has become the second largest party of Parliament.In the Netherlands, the Dutch Liberal Party of the Right -wing populist Verdes has become the largest party in the lower house after the 2023 election.Although Germany and Belgium's far -right parties have not yet entered the government, their influence is growing.
2. As a result of the left turn of France, even those with a left camp are slightly happy.When the leftist leftist in Paris celebrates the victory, the media changed from the "right to the right" narrative to "divide fear" narrative:
British Broadcasting Corporation: The French Parliament's election is amazingly reversed: the real power struggle has just begun (July 9)
Wall Street Journal: European politics new pattern: four -point cracking (July 9)
The most frustrated leftist is the words that the leftist is the words: the world newspaper columnist Kobman said to the BBC reporter: We know who lost, but we don't know who wins.
In the long run, changes in the European political pattern are also greatly influenced by the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.The results of the US election in November 2024 and the impact of the US dollar tide on the European economy cannot be underestimated on the changes in the European political pattern.
The author is a Chinese economist in the United States
