Source: Bloomberg
Molly Smith
Two key indicators of the US labor market began to move in the same direction in March, but the overall value is still very different, causing questions about which signal indication is more significant.
Although the new non -agricultural employment was 303,000, the highest level in the past year, the investigation of Household Employment showed that the new employment was about 500,000 and the first three months was decreased.Although the gap between the two has narrowed over the past, the overall difference is still at an unusual level.
The employment report issued by the US Labor Statistics is composed of two investigations. One is an institutional investigation. The number of employment and salary data comes from this; the other is a resident survey for calculating the unemployment rate.The scale of residents' investigations is small, and the error values are relatively large, which is why economists pay more attention to institutional investigation.
Other indicators in the US economy are still strong, such as the number of unemployed relief people and consumer expenditures are consistent with high non -agricultural employment data.
Sarah House, a senior economist in Wells Fargo, said that the data surveyed by the institution and the data of residents' survey can sometimes occur. Generally speaking, the latter will gradually move closer to the former.But for the large differences between these two data, she doesn't want to rashly concluded.
"This is what I worry about most," House said in an interview."In view of the strong recruitment speed, I expect the data of residents' employment survey will accelerate, at least narrowing the current gap."
Natural reasons
There are differences in the differences between these two indicators.The household investigation and measurement are people, and the company's investigation and measurement are employment.Therefore, if more people are engaged in several tasks at the same time (the number of such people has risen steadily since the end of 2020, and the growth rate has accelerated in March), then the number of new employment will be boosted.
One of the reasons why resident employment indicators jumped in March is the increase in the number of self -employment, the highest level since August 2021.
There are also issues on the impact of immigration.The United States Labor Statistics said that "institutional surveys and residents' investigations may include at least some unlicensed immigrants", and they cannot determine whether the immigrants have legal identities.Many economists said that the recent surge in the number of immigrants has boosted the growth rate of potential employment, but some people have different views.
Santander US Capital Markets LLC Chief Economist Stephen Stanley said that because immigrants are more likely to play "cash workers" and engage in technical work such as gardening, cleaning, and painting, the employment survey of larger enterprises may not be accurately reflected in accurately reflected the employment survey.The employment of these people.
