Dragon Tiger Yue, Longma spirit, dragon and phoenix is ​​auspicious idioms with dragons often have auspicious meaning.Does the annual will bring auspiciousness to the market?In this issue of wealth management, please investment experts to talk about the investment direction of the year.

Since 1928, the median price return rate (excluding dividend returns) of the S & P 500 Index Dragon is 7.8%, which is slightly higher than the median return rate of all years.

Dahua's private bank investment strategist Chen Dade provided the United Morning Newsletter's past dragon market data and found that the stock market performance of the Dragon Year was slightly higher than the overall average.

The Singapore Strait Times Index has only three dragons, and the median return rate is 8.1%.The Japan Nikkei 225 index was as high as 22.7%from the median annual year in 1949.

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However, Chen Dade reminded that the past market performance cannot predict the future direction, and some market dragon data is limited, which may not be representative.

The Swiss Bank (UBS) Fortune Management Zheng Wangqing, Chief Investment Director of South Asia, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that although the return on the stock market in the lunar calendar is generally positive, it has also experienced some years with the worst return rate.For example, the Internet bubble rupture in 2000.

He said that Dragon Nian is considered the most auspicious among the zodiac signs, and the dragon is also the most powerful animal in the zodiac signs, often representing power, strength and good luck.

In 2024, the five elements belong to wood, and wood represents growth, creativity and endurance.Therefore, Mu Longnian is full of energy, vitality, and vitality, which is usually related to major historical and political events. For example, in 1964, US President Johnson signed the US Civil Rights Act, which is the iconic legislation of the United States in civil rights and labor law.

The United States, Russia and Britain and others have successively held the election of the Mulong annual materials full of political colors

Zheng Wang Qing pointed out that 2024 Mu Longnian is likely to be full of political colors.In 15 months, 63%of the global domestic GDP will conduct presidential and parliamentary elections.The biggest influence is expected to be the United States, Russia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and British elections.

He said: "In the short term, political elections are usually the root cause of fluctuations, but as polarization deepen, populist and nationalism rise, the uncertain factors related to elections have increased significantly."Studies have shown that uncertainty will rise significantly in the months before the election, and the uncertainty of polarization elections has increased, bringing asset price fluctuations and slowing investment, because waiting for the election results to decide whether to invest in the choice of investment.Value is higher.

Long has been linked to the success of ambition and desire, combined with the flammable elements of wood, which may experience turbulence this year.The competition between countries may increase, and the situation of geopolitical tensions has developed to an unreasonable level and affects trade and capital flow and asset prices.The cracks between the global southern (Africa, Latin America, and some countries in the development of Asia) and the two major groups in the West will deepen, which will have a significant impact on the macro and investment prospects of developed economies and emerging economies.The greater geopolitical and policy uncertainty will accelerate the pace of diversification of the supply chain, thereby sacrificing efficiency.

Looking at the year of the dragon, Chen Dade said that the market is currently at the end of the economic cycle, which is equivalent to the autumn in the four seasons.At this cycle, fiscal and monetary measures are tightening, economic growth has slowed down after its peak, the unemployment rate is at a low level, the human market is tightened, the corporate profit is disappointing, and the merchant's mood is not good.

Although the market has been climbing high recently, Chen Dade pointed out that this is not because of the fundamental improvement, but because the market is expected to pay interest rates at the central bank.

"But the central bank does not cut interest rates soon, and the discount rate used to calculate the corporate valuation (Discount Rate) will not fall quickly. At the same time, the profit margin of the enterprise will continue to decline."

On the occasion of waiting for winter, Chen Dade suggested to make some adjustments to investment portfolios, reduce stocks, put funds into fixed income products as insurance. As inflation decreases, bonds will become more and more popular.

He suggested that investors choose investment -level bonds to avoid junk bonds. The latter generally refers to bonds with credit rating at BB or below. The possibility of breach of contract is relatively high. Investors may not get back to the principal.

At the end of the cycle, the product performed well, but once the economy falls into decline, demand declines, and the price of goods will weaken.

He also suggested investors deploy funds in the fields of defense, such as healthcare and non -cyclical fields to hedge the political risk of grounding.The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut will help the real estate investment trust (REIT), and now you can pay attention to local REIT.

Bond performance is optimistic

The market is generally expected to land softly this year.Stefan Hofer, the chief investment strategist of LGT Private Bank, said the economic slowdown in the first half of this year will move towards soft landing to avoid the economy of shrinking.The overall US human demand is declining, but the number of jobs is still at a high level, especially the construction -related human demand continues to grow.He expects that the US economy will actually increase by 2%this year, and inflation can return to 2%in the third quarter, and the Fed may begin to reduce interest rates in the middle of the year.

Hawater predicts that, compared with stocks and cash, investors are more optimistic about bond investment in the first half of the year, and investment -level US dollar corporate bond yields remain good.As the Fed started to cut interest rates in the middle of the year, funds will return to the stock market.

He expects the Bank of Japan to tighten the monetary policy in April or later. Because the interest rate gap is narrowed with the US -Europe interest rate cuts, I believe this will drive the yen to appreciate against the US dollar.Ascend to 130 levels.

Hoffero is optimistic about Japanese companies and investment outlook.He pointed out that after the reform of corporate governance, Japanese companies are now more focused on creating shareholders' return, and coupled with the depreciation of the yen in 2023, leading to a record high of corporate profits.Although there are currently clear signs that consumers and asset prices continue to rise, natural disasters and political uncertainty factors will weaken economic prospects in the short term.

China's real estate market may continue to weaken. Until 2025, Hoffer expects China's economic growth this year will be milder, about 5%.He believes that the valuation of Chinese stocks is close to a long -term low, and investors are waiting for substantive stimulus measures to re -enter the market.However, before the introduction of new development, the Chinese stock market may lag behind other Asian markets.

The Year of the Dragon is conducive to the fire and the earth industry

The Dragon Year Outlook Report studied by Bank of Malayan pointed out that the Year of the Dragon is conducive to the fire and the earth industry.Data, real estate and mergers.

Zheng Wangqing said, the elements and growth and expansion of woodIt is related to Zhang, so this year is conducive to cyclical and growth industries, such as real estate and technology industries that are sensitive to interest rates, especially global interest rates, which may decline this year.American technology companies should be one of the main beneficiaries of artificial intelligence -related hardware and software demand.

He also believes that this year is beneficial to bonds and stocks.Weak economic growth should help reduce interest rate expectations.The market will not reduce interest rates to less than 4%in the next five years.He believes that it is now a good time to increase holding of high -quality bonds (especially high -quality government bonds and investment bonds).Similarly, the low rate of interest rates and bond yields will also promote the stock market, provided that the economic shrinking is avoided.

Chief Investment Office of Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management is optimistic about high -quality bonds and stocks in developed markets in basic asset allocation, which is expected to be superior to cash returns.In terms of asset allocation in the field, Standard Chartered recommends buying US communication services, technology and medical care, as well as Chinese consumer disposable supplies, communication services and technology industries.

The Lunar New Year often promotes gold price

The

IG market found that the prices of gold in the Lunar New Year often promote the price of gold because consumers buy gold jewelry as a gift.However, due to the rise in US debt yields this year, the US dollar has strengthened, and the price of gold has fallen by 1.8%. DWS Global Chief Investment Officer BJ? RN Jesch believes that the price of gold will continue to rise.

Chen Dade pointed out that the environment of interest rate cuts generally benefits gold, because gold is a product without interest.

Regardless of the market trend, Bri Zhe, the chief investment director of Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management Group, reminded investors that investors should figure out what is their investment goals?How long is the investment period?Most importantly, how much is the ability to withstand the decline in investment portfolios?The key to successful investment discipline is that whether it is emotional influence or economic needs, do not be forced to sell to avoid excessive permanent losses.

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