Source: Bloomberg
China has made the most prefecture -rescue plan to curb the decline in the stock market, which has led market participants to skeptical.It is hoped that the crushed investors believe that if the weak economy is not fundamentally repaired, any rebound will be fleeting.
A series of rare good news, including considering the establishment of a Pingzhong Fund, Prime Minister Li Qiang called for adopting "powerful and effective" measures to appease the market, etc., the benchmark stock index rebounded on Tuesday (January 23).However, due to the inadequate cases and economic performance in the past, the economic performance is still sluggish, and the long -term government policy is unknown, which has caused investors to doubt whether the rise can last.
If the rise is not maintained, it increases the risk of further deterioration of market confidence.As the domestic stock market has fallen for three consecutive years, and the proportion of the global investment portfolio has shrunk rapidly, this situation is probably not the official.
"Chinese government officials are almost sure to say to Xi Jinping that the stock market plunge is a risk of stability," said George Magnus, assistant researcher at the China Center of Oxford University."Investors abandon Chinese stocks not only for general valuation, but also because of the degradation of the entire economic policy and the political environment. To restore confidence, it may need to make major changes in these two aspects." The latest package plan includes a flat -standard fund of about trillion yuan (about S $ 380.2 billion), highlighting the urgency of action to take action.Since the top of 2021, the Chinese and Hong Kong stock market evaporated a market value of more than $ 6 trillion (about S $ 8 trillion).The value of China's stock market has never lagged behind U.S. stocks so much.
The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index rose 2.8%on Tuesday, the largest single -day increase since this year.A base index of Mainland China closed up 0.4%, which had fallen to five years before.
"Considering that the Chinese stock market has fallen to such a low level, and the current holdings are so low, the market popularity and stock price rebound in the short term, which will not surprise me."Strategic director Aninda Mitra said."But whether it is supplemented with a more wide and far -influential package reform, it can continue to be doubtful."
It's no wonder that investors will be suspicious.China has a case of mobilizing policy resources to stop bleeding in the market, but successful people.During the decline in 2015, the "National Team" was reportedly spent 240 billion U.S. dollars in the summer, but with the end of the purchase operation, the stock market resumed the decline.
A policy error at the time was memorable. The fuse mechanism introduced by the securities regulatory authorities not only did not reduce market volatility, but instead hurriedly flee the market.
Last year, a number of efforts adopted to reverse the decline in the stock market, including lowered transaction stamp duty, and the "national team" to buy ETFs, also had little results.Entering the new year, the pace of selling has accelerated, including technical factors such as some structural products triggering losses and other technical factors have further increased pressure.
All of this shows that when economic problems have not been resolved, the stock market is at least just a bear market rebound. According to the market that seems to be willing to do in BeijingSell.
"Experience in 2015 shows that unless there is a larger stimulating plan to solve economic problems, even if the government increases its purchase strength, the rise may not be sustainable," MichelleLam said.
The Spring Festival next month is approaching, and the urgency of the Chinese government's end of this round of pluys will also heat up.
The leadership is unwilling to see that at the New Year party, it accounted for about 60 million retail investors in the Chinese stock market to express dissatisfaction.
If you have no confidence in the economic recovery, investors will continue to wait and see.Some of the world's largest fund management companies have chosen to withdraw because they believe that risks are too high.
China faces many economic problems and require structural reforms.The population atrophy is not good for consumption, the situation of geopolitical tensions curbs Beijing's ambitions, and the real estate market is deeply in trouble. All of them have exacerbated the pressure of economic shrinkage.
"In the end, even if funds are sufficient to support the market, it cannot solve other problems facing China, such as restrictions on the United States, weak economy, and unemployment," said VEY-SERN LING, managing director of Union Bancaire Privee.
