In addition to the mainstream predictions of the Taiwan election, the DPP Lai Qingde was elected, and the Kuomintang Hou Youyi became weak.In the case of Tsai Ing -wen's two sessions, "Democratic Progressive Party" is still a dream of Nanke.Not only did the Kuomintang fail to turn over salted fish, it was accompanied by the rise of the people's party Ke Wenzhe.
The rise of Ke Wenzhe, many people think that it hurts the Blue Camp, but at least this election is a voter foundation of the Green Camp.Compared with the data of these two elections, it is obvious that Tsai Ing -wen's voting rate in the last election was 57.13%. Lai Qingde's vote rate was 40.05%, which was shocking.The votes of the previous Korean Yu Yu's votes were 38.61%, and the voting rate of Hou Youyi was 33.49%, which was not very retreat.
For the Blue Camp, this shows at least three points: first, the basic market of the Kuomintang is still; second, because it is not a ruling party, the issue of Tsai's internal affairs and diplomacy will naturally not affect the wind of the Blue Camp.Comment, but if the Blue Camp comes to power in the future, it may not be able to lie down like this; third, the fatal point is that even if the Taiwanese people are dissatisfied with the green camp, they have not naturally transformed into support for the Blue Camp.This is a major hidden danger for the future of the Blue Camp.
Election policy is impulsive
In addition, the problem of the leadership of the Blue Camp is still the same.In the last election, Guo Taiming was indignant because of the defeat of the Kuomintang's preliminary election in the Kuomintang Party.The battle for candidates also caused the Kuomintang internal consumption very early.Throughout the election process, whether the candidate Hou Youyi and Guo Taiming, or the old veteran Zhu Lilun and South Korea, were all dreams of dreams and ambitions.In contrast, although the Green Camp also has factions, it is often possible to quickly reach a consensus consensus.As for Ke Wenzhe of the "One Party", naturally there will be no serious factional division such as the Kuomintang of the Centennial Store.The electoral policy caused by this internal division was uncertain, which eventually led to a complete failure of blue and white integration.
The leadership of the Blue Camp did not realize that the selection and white integration were greater than the disadvantages.This can not only achieve the rotation of political parties smoothly, but also slowly digest some Baiying supporters through reasonable operations.But in terms of Bai Ying, it is not the case. The combination of Bai choice and blue is more disadvantaged, especially for the future of Baiying.Even so, Lan Ying did not make enough concessions after Bai Ying agreed to discuss, and lost this rare opportunity.
For the Green Camp, this election also shows at least three points: First, it is very obvious that the people of Taiwan are not satisfied with the current government.Secondly, Taiwan's internal affairs may become the leading factor of the election in the future, and the importance of Taiwan -land relations is gradually diluing.Scholar Lu Xi finally mentioned in the duel in Taiwan that this is because "traditional unified opposition gradually allows generations in the family."My supplementary opinion is that any of the areas in a split state will deepen with time to deepen the localization and localization tendencies.Third, the DPP's votes are divided into Baiying, and most of them are young people votes.Therefore, how to obtain the trust of young voters, learn directly from Baiying, and even seek cooperation with Baiying, rather than blindly targeting fighting and struggle, will be a possible issue in the future of Green Camp.
In addition, the relative public landslide during Cai's ruling is still an important crux.Since Tsai Ing -wen was elected in 2016, it immediately caused a large collapse of the nine -in -one elections in 2018 due to a series of new policies.After the second party, this situation happened again. In 2022, Jiuhe repeatedly repeatedly defeated the defeat, which directly led to Cai's resignation as the party chairman.The same encounters of Cai's two times are related to the rebound of the traditional right -wing conservative forces in Taiwan's traditional right -wing conservative forces.
three -party checks and balances
Therefore, how to obtain more public opinion support in the next government will be a major challenge for Lai Guan.Especially considering the losing seats in the Legislative Yuan of the Green Camp to Blue Camp, it can only be reluctant to support it with lame.
Overall, we also found an important trend that Taiwan's past two -party politics has really become a three -party checks and balances (the new party in the past cannot be counted).There is a major difference between this situation and the past polarization politics. In addition to the opposite competition between the two party politics and the ability of the governance and political governance itself, there are also the ability factors of party operations.After this election, Taiwan officially entered the era of more complex party games, negotiated cooperation and interest exchange.The vertical and horizontal means between parties will also test the political wisdom of the blue -green and white camp leader.Because a minority of policies want to govern and want to be effective, they must cooperate with other parties.This may become the norm of politics in Taiwan's political parties in the future.
The political cooperation errors between blue and white this time, whether it is blue or white, will be a mistake that cannot be made in the future.In the future elections, the interest replacement ability of other party factions, especially when the election is in the case, is very important.Therefore, no matter how Green Camp and Blue Camp deal with the challenges from Baiying, this ability to compromise and cooperation will largely determine the future development of these political parties.
In any case, the benefit of democratic society is that voters have the right to vote.Although Taiwan's politics is destined to be more chaotic in the future, this is also a kind of happy trouble and the appearance of normal society.
The author is a local literary and historical enthusiast and religious researcher
