Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

Author: Li Mingzhu

The world enters the year of the Super Election, and the key elections will be carried out in more than 70 countries and regions."Political risk.

The International Consultation Institution Eurasia Group recently released a report, ranking the US presidential election at the top of the world's major political risks in 2024.According to the report, the United States is the most divided and most serious "advanced industrial democratic country" in the world. No matter what the election results, it will exacerbate its domestic division.

U.S. election campaigns have started, whether the current president of the United States has won the second presidential term, or the former President Trump has once again "rolled back", which has attracted attention.The potential transformation of the US political pattern has also laid uncertainty for politics.

"This statement has a certain reason." Zhang Jiadong, a professor at the US Research Center of Fudan University, told Hong Kong Zhongtong on the 11th that the outside world is generally worried about two things. One is that Trump will overthrow Biden's policy, especiallyPolicies involving international events such as Aidu and other international events have produced subversive effects.Secondly, if a certain party does not accept the results of the election, it may repeat the "Congress Mountain Incident" similar history, leading to domestic political turmoil in the United States.

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The results of the election will also spread to the economic field.At present, American society has mixed economic transcripts of Biden, and large -scale fiscal expansion has caused debt sustainability.However, if Trump comes to power, the unilateralism of "priority in the United States" may split the Western world again and confuse global trade.

Looking at geopolitics, especially when the Palestinian -Israeli conflict has not stopped fire, why is the US election called the number one political risk in the world?Judging from the Middle East issue, some analysts believe that the US election may lead to the reshape of relations with the United States and the Middle East.

Zhu Yongbiao, Executive Director of the "Belt and Road" Research Center of Lanzhou University, told Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency on the same day that if Bayeng was elected, the continuity and stability of the Middle East policy in the United States will be stronger, but because the United States is slightly scorched on the Middle East issue, the United States is slightly burnt on the issue of the Middle East., Later, it may be more tangled.If Trump is elected, it may be more jumping, which will bring greater variables to the US Middle East policy and the entire Middle East situation.However, there will be no fundamental impact in the direction, and the United States will have strategic contraction in the Middle East.

From the perspective of the Asia -Pacific region, in recent years, the United States has stepped up its strategic layout of Indo -Pacific, put together the "small circle" to incite confrontation, which has caused the situation on the Korean Peninsula to rise and the South China Sea issue has continued to rub.As the US elections approach, the pace of the United States cannot be ruled out, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula may face challenges.

Under the fight between the United States Democratic Party and the Republican Party, some comments described the US election as a duel on the edge of the cliff.The results of the US elections are still unknown, but there is no doubt that this election will affect the global nerves.

However, Zhang Jiadong also said that the risk of the US election exists objectively, but whether it is the global number one, it is necessary to analyze from different perspectives.The United States is the world's great country, and the uncertainty of the election is also high. Its risk can be regarded as the number one political risk of the world; but whether this risk is the largest compared to other risks, it is difficult to say.The outside world should not exaggerate the concept of "number one risk".