In recent years, the political dynamics of Malaysia, Thailand and other places have implied that Taiwan's generations of duels are becoming inevitable. This development has constituted a potential challenge for the goal of pursuing unified pursuit of mainland China.

Tomorrow (January 13), Taiwan ushered in the four -year presidential election.This election is like a predetermined festival, attracting people around the surrounding people to set off and fly to the selection.Many people said with a joke that if you miss this time, you may no longer have the opportunity to witness such a grand occasion.

Compared with the tight political situation in previous years, this year's election atmosphere seems relatively mild, and traditional unified opposition gradually enables generations in the family.After the polls are closed, there is no data to guide the direction of public opinion. Obviously, you can perceive that the "three coffee supervisors" (the meaning of the Taiwanese, the meaning of the triangle) is Ke Wenzhe -he was seen by the older generation of the Blue and Green Party.For "liar", but it has won politicians supported by wide young people.

When writing this article, Ke Wenzhe's YouTube subscriber has exceeded the 1 million mark, five times more than Lai Qingde, and 35 times to the classmate.Last weekend, although the number of people on the scene of Ke Wenzhe seemed to be less than the opponent, the viewing records on the Internet reached an amazing 110,000.Behind this number is a revolution in Taiwan's young people on traditional political expression.These young people do not want to organize their feet, do not take tour buses, and do not go to the scene because of the free bento for free, but they are dissatisfied with the status quo, and they are dissatisfied with the status quo, the problem of corruption, low salary, education reform, energy shortage and political integrityWaiting for social problems, they have their own distinctive attitudes and demands.

Why can Ke Wenzhe rise?The answer may be related to Cai Yingwen.

Since the era of Ma Ying -jeou, the identity of the Taiwanese people has gradually inclined to localization. The Sunflower Movement and the Hong Kong anti -delivery of events have further accelerated this transformation.The change of identity has driven Taiwan society's perception of the nature of the government.In this context, traditional cross -strait policy supporters are gradually marginalized, and the "two countries" have become the default consensus of most people in Taiwan.However, the claims of the two countries have conflicts with the Constitution of the Republic of China, which are mainly reflected in whether they need to amend the constitution to resolve the conflict between the sovereignty and governance of the Republic of China.But once the constitutional amendments, the bottom line of the two sides of the strait has been destroyed, and Taiwan cannot bear the risks brought by this.

Tsai Ing -wen proposed the "four persistence" during his term, especially emphasizing the point where cross -strait is not affiliated with each other.The dispute provides a new definition for the nature of Taiwan's government.It turns out that this strategy effectively condenses the most extensive public opinion support and allows politicians, including Lai Qingde, have to comply with this trend.

"Four persistences" not only change Taiwan's political discourse, but also indirectly allow the focus of the election to shift from cross -strait relations to internal affairs construction and social policies.Just as the foundation of the house needs to be firmly supported to support the beams, a society's consensus on the nature of the government can provide a foundation for discussing a more constructive policy.Looking back at the past elections, cross -strait relations have always been an unshakable issue in Taiwan, often causing Taiwanese society to be polarized.Lack of solid and unified political identity, the public cannot shift attention points from dividing political issues to more constructive public policies, and cannot fully evaluate the government's administrative effectiveness.

Observing the history of East Asia's developing countries, you can see the economic growth under authoritarianism, and ultimately promote the transfer of welfare countries.The situation in Taiwan is unique. Prior to the introduction of Tsai Ing -wen's "four persistence", the society's perception of the nature of politics could not be unified for a long time.On the basis of this division, the ruling party tends to lean social welfare to those supporters who are extremely supported by the unified independence issues.

With the "Four persistence", Taiwan's social identity has become more clear and concrete.Young people have begun to have the opportunity to get rid of the long -term tangling of the unification and independence, and instead pay attention to more issues directly related to their own lives.Under the rotation governance of the Blue and Green Party, social problems such as high housing prices, unbalanced income, lack of political ethics, lies and corruption are common.It has not been expected.In this regard, Ke Wenzhe has naturally become the hope of young people who criticize the status quo with the image of integrity and diligence and in -depth concern for internal affairs.

Statistics show that young voters have much support for Ke Wenzhe than elderly voters.In Taiwan, more than half of the voters in Taiwan occupied more than half, and became the ticket warehouse of Ke Wenzhe in this election.With the changes in the age structure of voters, the people's party is destined to usher in the rise of supporters.If you can get more than a quarter or even higher votes, it means that Taiwan ’s political territory will shift from unified independence to a new era of generations.

In recent years, the political dynamics of Malaysia, Thailand and other places have implied that Taiwan's generations are inevitable. This development has constituted a potential challenge for the goal of pursuing unified pursuit of mainland China.If the subsequent Taiwan elections have determined that the internal affairs issues can be placed on the dispute over the independence of the same independence, and the strategy of dividing Taiwan society through the political system's cognition of Taiwan will be greatly weakened.At the same time, the united front strategy that it has rely on for a long time will also face severe tests: mainland China may no longer be able to selectively anchor the ideological form of Taiwan's specific political parties, but to directly face Taiwan's mainstream public opinion and social consensus;It is almost impossible to accept the two countries that legalize the two countries under the "four persistence" framework.Therefore, regardless of the results of this year's election, the tension between the Taiwan Strait and the phenomenon of potential war of war seem to be far away, which has a dilemma of continuous and profound dilemma for cross -strait relations.

The author is a assistant professor at the School of Public Policy, the National University of Singapore