Gionekeva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in a program broadcast on the United States CNN on January 2 that the related restrictions around "national security" are increasing.Geopolical factors are leading to global economic division.If the economic fragmentation continues, it will eventually cause the global GDP (GDP) to lose 7%, which is roughly equivalent to the sum of France and Germany's annual GDP.
The world economy has performed very stable and orderly in the global wave. The economies of various countries have developed well, and the work of rich and weak help in the world has also done well.obviously decrease.Even with severe natural disasters, with the joint assistance of other countries, it will soon overcome difficulties and enter the normal development track.Human beings once had a sense of the world, and various conflicts, wars, and terrorist activities were rare.
However, I do n’t know when the trade protection has risen, unilateralism, geopolitics, scientific and technological blockade, key equipment export restrictions, etc., have caused the global supply chain and industrial chainIn the state of splitting, splitting, and splitting, many countries have adopted a tragic means of hurting the enemy for one thousand and self -damaging 800, and even the regional political conflict became more and more serious.This continues to develop, not only is it difficult to ensure stable growth in the global economy, but it is also likely to fall into the edge of serious recession.
Throughout the global economic crisis in the history of world economic history, it is caused by decision -making errors, economic predictions and judgment errors, deteriorating supply and demand relationships, excessive competition, etc., which are all issues of economic and economic categories.solve.The four stages of the economic crisis -crisis, depression, recovery and growth are also economic issues.Capitalists can pour the unable to sell milk into the sea, nor do they give it to the poor. The purpose is to control the market, control prices, and control supply and demand relationships, and achieve stability of profits. There is no more meaning in other aspects.Even if some political factors are mixed, in general, the impact on the economy is not great.
However, the current situation is very different from previous crises. Political factors determine the global economic direction and various fragmented and splitting phenomena.Whether it is trade, technology, production, supply and other fields, it is controlled by various political factors, political means, and ideology, and "political economics" is extremely strong in today's world economy.Once the economy is abducted by politics and controlled by ideology, the world economy cannot be operated according to market laws, values, and economic operations. It will change with the government's will, and even changes with the will of someone.For example, Argentina's new president Mirley has caused major changes in Argentina's economic policy and "leap", and many seemingly impossible policies appear in Millai's hands.
If the world economy is fell into fragmented, split, and division, most people may think of former US President Trump.It was his birth of the sky that caused the world economy, world trade, and globalization to have never had severe blows and impacts.The trade protection and unilateralism he promoted made the globalization that was playing well and was suddenly rushed.His successor did not change his wrong practices well, but instead unscrupulously promoted trade protection and unilateralism, and adopted extremely strict technical blockade and policy restrictions on other countries, especially China.
I do n’t know that the occurrence of friction between the two economic powers is really a fairy fight and the people's suffering will greatly affect and affect other countries.The fragmentation of the world economy at present is the direct result of this friction.Whenever a little global awareness and a little global economy, the common prosperity of the global economy will not use "national security" to limit the global economic development, and will not set up countless boundaries and fences on the market, which will cause cooperation and exchanges of countries in the world to be seriously cut off.EssenceIf it wasn't for trade protection, the global financial crisis had already left, and the world economy had already entered a benign development track, and the world economy would not develop at a very low level.
It is also because of this, the warning of the IMF president is extremely important. Countries in the world, especially major countries, should listen to the voices of international economic organizations and the voices of global.At the same time, look at the status quo of the world economy, see those who live in poor areas, let go of careful thinking, establish a big pattern, look at and deal with problems from the perspective of global economy, let the world economy return to the road of globalization, according to the global dividend dividend,It is required to formulate the country's development planning and development goals. Do not let the world economy split again, and do not make the global industrial chain more and more fragmented.
The author is a Chinese financial commentator
