Since October 7, a fierce conflict broke out with Haha, and China's statement has also attracted much attention.
For a long time, the Arab countries including Palestine, including Palestine, hoped that China can play a greater role in the Pakistana issue; China has always believed that the Palestinian issue is one of the main factors that threaten global security.Especially since the successful mediation of Shay conflict, China hopes to see that the Pakistan conflict has become another focus of China's mediation.However, there are significant differences in the nature, geopolitical background, the willingness to mediate the dispute, and the relationship between China and the dispute in terms of nature.This article believes that there are five major challenges in China's mediation.
First of all, the essence of the Papa conflict is the survival of the two countries and it is difficult to mediate.The conflict between the two sides lasts for a century. After five large -scale wars and countless small -scale conflicts, they are mixed with national hatred, religious contradictions, territorial disputes, and resource competitions.Some factions between the two countries regard each other as the number one threat to survive in their own country, and they regard the compromise to each other as a serious damage to national security.Land, drinking water and other resources in Palestine are limited, and the population of the two countries is growing, and both sides are competing for limited living space.Following this logic, Israel has continuously promoted the construction of settlements on the west bank of the Jordan River to eat the Palestinian community.The Israeli Prime Minister Natana has publicly threatened to put on the west bank of the Jordan River into Israel.This is why the bilateral peace talks have not been retreated since Madrid's peace process.
Secondly, Israel lacks willingness to mediate.Successful mediation is the result of both sides of the dispute.However, in the Baza conflict, Hiroshi lacks the willingness and motivation of mediation.The comparison of the strength of the dispute will affect the willingness of the mediation. The more disparate the gap between the strength of the two sides, the obvious the asymmetry, and the greater the difficulty of mediation; the obvious party with power advantages is unwilling to introduce third -party intervention, reduce their own advantages, and the deferred willingness will naturally decline.In the Pakistan conflict, Israel has an absolute advantage, and it has a strong diplomatic relations with economy, military, and diplomatic relations with developed countries.As the weak, Palestine wants to internationalize the conflict as much as possible to seek the help of the international community; Israel is the opposite.
In addition to the Gaza Strip, Trioli almost controls the Palestinian region, and also possesses the Gelan Highlands, constantly eating the west bank of the Jordan River.Israel is the beneficiary of the status quo, and of course it is more inclined to maintain the status quo.From the perspective of short -sighted Israeli politicians, acceptance of mediation is not good for Israel.
Once again, China ’s influence on both sides is still limited.Different from Iran and Saudi Arabia, China and Israel and China and Palestine not only have a much less economic and trade dependence, but also do not have China and Iran and Saudi Arabia in terms of political mutual trust and security cooperation. This will affect China's influence on the two countries.China and Shay are comprehensive strategic partnerships. They are the largest trading partners of the two countries for many years and their main oil importing countries.Although China and Israel are innovative and comprehensive partnerships, the United States is still the largest trading partner in Israel, and China depends on imported high -tech technology and products from Israel.Although in recent years, cooperation in infrastructure in the construction of China and Israel has continued to expand, it has also faced the interference in the United States.
Politics, Israel has followed the United States and the United States on issues such as Xinjiang, and has lower trust with China.In terms of security, China lacks influence, and has an incomparable impact on the security of the United States on the safety of coloring.For Palestine, China and Palestine have established strategic partnership shortly.Although China has always firmly supported Palestine's career in terms of morality, in recent years, high -level high -level visits have been frequently visited and have a high degree of political mutual trust.However, the scale of China -Pakistan economic and trade exchanges is still relatively limited. In 2022, bilateral trade volume was only $ 158 million (about S $ 220 million).Moreover, in the middle school donation to the United Nations Real East Palestinian refugee relief and engineering (UNRWA), the United States has always been the largest donor of single funds.For example, the donation of the United States in 2022 was US $ 340 million, ranking first, and China donated $ 1 million, ranking 36.However, it is worth noting that China has gradually increased the amount of donations in recent years.
Then, compared to Saudi Arabia and Iran, whether it is Israel or Palestine, domestic political forces are more diverse and complicated, and internal contradictions are more profound. Different political forces have different attitudes to mediation, and their attitudes to China are also different.The difficulty of mediation is increased.
Inside Baza, whether it is the competition between Israeli left and right parties or the serious differences between the factions of Palestine, it indicates that the conflict has been embedded in the political and social structure of both parties.EssenceOn the Palestinian side, Hamas's attack has shown that it will seem tough to the end, and the Hamas participation in Eva Kato is hard to say.In terms of Israel, internal political forces and political orientation are equally complicated.In recent years, the extreme right -wing forces in Israel have developed rapidly. They refused to coexist with the Arabs. It is necessary to annex the entire Palestinian region and then quickly.To promote the restarting peace talks, it is necessary to establish a in -depth good relationship with the main factions within the two parties to achieve influence.
Finally, the mediation is unable to get rid of the influence of the United States.Although the unconditional support for Israel has gradually lost the identity of the Middle East peace host, the United States still has a huge influence on Israel, even if it may be inadequate even in the Pakistan conflict, it is still even more defeated.The close relationship between the United States and Israel is well known. It can be said that the core interest of the United States in the Middle East is to ensure Israel's national security. Since World War II, the United States has reached US $ 300 billion in military in Israel a year.Therefore, China mediates Shay to bypass the United States, but the mediation is unable to bypass the United States.
The challenge facing is also a room for progress. To become the real mediation of the Pakistani conflict, China must continue to strengthen the cooperation between the two parties in various fields such as economy, trade, politics, and security, enhance the influence on the two countries, and the two countries, and the two with the two countries, and the two with the two countries, and the two with the two countries.The contact of various domestic political factions must further communicate with countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other regions on this issue.In addition, the Pakistani conflict cannot bypass the United States. China still needs to seek cooperation with the United States to become promoters of peace talks with one.In the end, it is necessary to wait until the conflict has developed to the "mature stage". Both sides believe that violence is not supplemented. When they are willing to seek mediation, external mediation will work.
The author is a doctoral student at the School of International Relations of Peking University
