Ye Dehao: If the U.S. Congress refuses to appreciate Ukraine, what other ax is there i

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

After McCarthy, the former president of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress, was dismissed, the Speaker of the Republican Party, "Running Horse", was officially launched. Many face -to -face politicians were on the competition.People, who voted the next day to choose the candidate of the Speaker, and then submitted to the conference for formal voting.Since the United States is about to face the threat of the federal government again after November 17, the "old problem" of the new financial appropriation bill will still be the "new problem" of the new speaker.Among them, whether/how should it be supplemented with the upcoming funding and funding, it will still be a place for soldiers.

Different from the Speaker "Running Horse"

The reason why the federal government can avoid causing a shutdown on October 1 is that one of the major reasons is that McCarthy removed the Senate's US $ 6 billion (about S $ 8.2 billion) to subsidize Ukraine in the Senate to avoidCauses further controversy within the Republican Party.At that time, the Democratic Senator at the Ukraine had tried to delay the passage of temporary funding and asked to re -join the aid of Ukraine. He was worried that the Ukrainian issue had a good opportunity to put this necessary bill, but it was eventually persuaded by others.

Among the currently known Speaker of the House of Representatives, the differences in the continued assistance to Ukraine.On the side of supporting the aid, there are the Republican second figures and the majority of the House of Representatives Skalisse. Its policy route is similar to McCarthy.The party is far better than McCarthy, especially after being hit by the anti -Trump gunman in 2017, he was seriously injured and returned to Congress, but he currently suffers from blood cancer.

On the party that opposes the aid, there is Jim Jordan, the chairman of the House of Representatives of the House of Representatives.Jordan is one of the founding members of the “Freedom Caucus” and a loyal ally of Trump in the House of Representatives. It has a conflict with the mild faction in the party. HoweverAfter a good relationship, to a certain extent, it eluted the past anti -building taste.On the standpoint of Ukraine, Jordan showed that Ukraine was not the most urgent agenda for Americans. Last week, he voted against the 300 million aid -funded vote.

Affinance of Funding for Aid: Not voting but not voting

Although Bayeng took away 6 billion Ukraine's appropriation in the U.S. Congress on October 3, he had not voted, and he had talked with the G7 countries, the European Union, Poland, Romania and other core aids, indicating that the ginseng and the two hospitals on the mountains of Congress showed thatThere are cross -party aid consensus, but on the 4th, he publicly acknowledged that he would "worry" that the United States would not be able to keep up with his promise.

Bynden's two statements have no conflict.With the support of Ukraine, most of the members of the two parties are supported by the two parties.In the nearest assistant voting, the Senate on September 21 passed the temporary appropriation of $ 6 billion in favor of 25 votes against 25 votes.In military training), the proportion of members of the support and opposition is 311 to 117.In any normal use parliament, this proportion has made people feel at ease of the United States.

The question is that more than half of the US Republican Party, especially in the House of Representatives, questioned the assistance of Ukraine, as shown in the case of McCarthy's cases under the opposition of only eight of the people's members of the party.With the ability to ride the whole party and even the will of the House of Representatives, when the dispute over the fiscal year, the dispute is trapped in the mud, the next speaker is likely to remove Ukraine's funding to slow down the party's discriminationTo vote at the conference (even if the vote is supported, most of the members are supported).

Under these crisis, the voices of the American political circles have proposed that the "one -time solution" strategy should be adopted on the issue of Aid Ukraine, institutionalized the United States to assist Ukraine, or significantly increased Biden's required $ 24 billion in US $ 24 billion.The amount of assistance in the aid, directly seeking aid funding for Aid Ukraine after the election that was valid until the end of 2024, so as not to be approved by this assistance of Ukraine, the Ukrainian issue has once again become a political debate on the Mountains of Congress.

Of course, this is Ruyi abacus.But if Congress really can't pass Ukraine, is there any other ax that can be used?After expressing his concerns about the US aid Ukraine on October 4, Biden also made up a saying that he had "other methods" to continue to assist Ukraine.What are these "other methods"?

Bayeng's "Other Methods"

First, mobilize other Ministry of National Defense or the State Council's funding to help Ukraine.This method only requires the consent of the leadership of the relevant committees of Congress.At present, the leadership of these committees has the "aid" of the two parties, so it is probably not a problem.To express opposition, more than half of the two hospitals will pass the resolution.However, the US aid obstacles in the United States are not voting in Congress, but because the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives does not allow the House of Representatives to vote, so it is unlikely to constitute an obstacle.

The second is to use the "PRESIDENTIAL DRAWDOWN Authority" to directly send the existing arms of the Ministry of Defense to Ukraine.This is actually the common practice of the United States military in Ukraine, because the use of existing arms losses Ukraine is more direct. Many aid funds allocating funds are actually only used to replenish these armaments sent out.However, the upper limit of the President's appropriation rights in the fiscal year in 2023 is 14.5 billion US dollars, and there is not much room for room after normal use, and if Congress explicitly does not pass the appropriation to supplement the military reserve that Bai Deng decided to send out, this will also be destroyed within the Ministry of National Defense.Resistance.

Third, the requesting Congress is not nominally used to aid Ukraine, but the Ministry of Defense or the State Council's security assistance appropriations are actually used to aid Ukraine.Both departments have always had various international security assistance allocation funds. For example, in the relevant documents of the State Council in 2023, anti -drug, anti -terrorism, mines, anti -nuclear diffusion, peacekeeping, military training, foreign military financing and other categories of various categories and other typesDeling requirements.Because many Republicans oppose the aid of Ukraine's voices are actually a political performance ("Is Ukraine more important than preventing border refugees from pouring in the border?", "Is Ukraine more important than concentrating to stop China's threat?") If the appropriation of the new fiscal yearBeing able to remove the name of "aid Wu" and then "secretly crossing Chencang" to these "security aids", these packaging may be possible to obtain acquiescence by the Republican opposition from the aid.

Fourth, the foreign military financing plan of the State Council is used to borrow money to Ukraine. It is hoped that the future Congress will help Ukraine repay the repayment by paying funds in the future.The U.S. State Department has always provided the power to provide such borrowing plans. In 2014, it was used in Iraq when it was urgently needed to fight for ISIS. On September 25 this year, Washington also reached 2 billion with Poland.The US dollar loan agreement is used to support Poland's defense modernization.Although this method will increase the liabilities of Ukraine in the short term, it is a feasible way out.

Five is to use the "national defense remaining supplies" with a strong bureaucracy to assist Ukraine.The United States often specifies some weapons and military materials every year as "defense remaining supplies" and then transports them to its allies, from fighter planes to tents.All military departments of the Ministry of National Defense only need to recognize that such materials are exceeded that they need it, and then they can be submitted to the State Council to decide who to give it to, but this is similar to the "yard sale" method in the United States.If the side is not included, Ukraine wants to get these arms, and you must find ways to find a way to return to Ukraine from the US warehouse generals.

This approach looks quite clever, and of course it will cause people to oppose it, but it should be impeccable in law.And even after legend, Bayeng decided to provide the ATACMS ground -to -ground missile at the ATACMS of Ukraine in SeptemberThe "professional" judgment of the U.S. military can also judge them as "remaining materials" (ATACMS is replaced by another missile this year).Therefore, the breadth of "national defense remaining supplies" is not low.

The "other methods" in Biden's mouth cannot be separated from the above items.

From the perspective of the existence and feasibility of these "other methods", in fact, even if the U.S. Congress is serious, the Biden officials who have been in office for more than a year still have different means to continue military and finance support.Ukraine.The scale of assistance may be less than ever, but when the EU's aid commitment to Ukraine has surpassed the United States (regardless of its own funding for EU countries), the sustainability of the Russian and Ukraine War will not quickly disappear due to the hesitation of the United States.