With the economic downturn, the demographic dividend disappears, the people's house purchase rate is expected to decrease, the house cannot be sold, and the sales cash flow cannot be realized.At this time, the real estate industry is like a person who is bleeding while transfusion, and the number of blood transfusion is less than the number of bleeding. Can he live?

Following Country Garden, it is the same as my original judgment, which is the same as my original judgment.The sword is sealed, regardless of state -owned enterprises and private enterprises.It can be said now that from the results, people who formulate policies are not very clear about the logic of real estate operations.I have worked in the bank for many years and have been a senior executive of credit management. Later, after resigning from the bank, I went to the real estate company to be the financial director (CFO), and I still know the real estate.Therefore, I want to talk about the problems and solutions of real estate from the following points.

1. What is the essence of China's real estate problem

In fact, everyone can see very clearly. The essence of China's real estate is based on entity. The essence is to do financial business. It is a capital pool business.Why do you say that?Because the entire financial management model of real estate is called "supply and marketing", which is the basic formula of land supply, sales, sales, and repayment, not the "profit equal income reduction" from the traditional corporate financial model.It establishes a capital pool through supply and marketing, and this fund pool is not a closed management of real estate and one real estate, but puts all the real estate funds inside, and then it seems to be a lot of money, but because it is because of a large amount of money, but because of because of a large amount of money, but because it is a lot of money, but because it is because of a large amount of money, but because of because of a large amount of money, but becauseThe economic downturn cannot be supported by the physical profits, so the east wall is dismantled to make up the west wall. Some houses have been sold, but the tax on the construction of construction is still left on this real estate without corresponding funds to support.Therefore, the entire development of real estate in China is unsustainable.It will bring the collapse of real estate, the pain of buyers, and a huge burden on the country to end.

2. Where is the root cause of real estate problems

The key to

This problem is that everything is always based on high bars, high liabilities, and high turnover. This "three highs" can be unobstructed. It is based on China's high -speed growth of the economy since the reform and opening up of China.Began to rise, to sales, the more you cover the plate (editor: refers to the intention to sell the price, the Property Hoarding) rose, the more the process is based on the continuous economic growth.The valuation of this asset also declines with the economic downturn.In addition, the central bank's three red line policies directly seal the throat, directly cut off the main source of blood transfusion of real estate.With the economic downturn, the demographic dividend disappears, the people's house purchase rate is expected to decrease, the house cannot be sold, and the sales cash flow cannot be realized.

At this time, the real estate industry is like a person who is bleeding while transfusion, and the number of blood transfusion is less than the number of bleeding. Can he live?

There is also a system problem.That is, there is no competent department from the beginning to the end of the real estate. It seems that they are all controlling. In fact, the policy is their own politics. There is no unified and coordinated policy to supervise real estate.The most prominent manifestation is that real estate is not managed according to the financial model of the enterprise, but is managed according to its own supply and marketing return model. This is unsustainable.However, this problem has not been paid attention to, including taxes including finance, including urban construction departments.

3. How to solve the problem

First of all, allowing real estate to return to the entity must be managed in accordance with the financial models of traditional enterprises, and establishing an operating mechanism of capital constraints and cost constraints. This is the most critical first step.Secondly, rebuild the real estate industry operation system.The incremental project shall be separated from real estate investors, builders and sellers, and shall perform their duties, responsible for each, and shall be managed according to the project and the management of funds will be closed.

The purpose of this is to remove the cash pool of housing companies, cancel the financial attributes of housing companies, reduce the size of housing companies, and reduce the impact of problems on a single enterprise on the country and society.

Third, the real estate stock project on the existing market is led by the state to establish a company similar to the US two -bedroom (compilation: the two largest housing mortgage institutions in the United States).Bonds can be issued to raise funds to operate, centralized management, and classified operations.It is both stable in the market and flexibly.

Fourth, the state establishes a special department to lead the operation, construction, financial and sales of centralized supervision of the real estate industry to ensure the healthy and stable operation of real estate.

The author is the Deputy General Manager of China Retirement Bank