Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
On October 3rd, the Armenia Parliament accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court through the Roman Statue terms. Although this decision seemed to have nothing to do with other countries, it would actually make Armenia a legal responsibility in Russia President Vladimir Putin.Armynia's arrest warrant for his execution court.The Russian side made it clear about this, and the Kremlin claimed that the decision did not meet Russia's expectations for its partners, and had questions about the current Armenian leadership.
Nikolpashinyan and Putin's official disagreement for many years.Pashniyan took the stage in the country's demonstration in 2018, which has caused Russia's doubts. Even if Pashniyan guarantees that it will not stir up the geopolitical situation of South Caucasus, it will not help.
In 2020, Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, broke out with Armenia. As a "ally" Russia with bilateral defense treaties and members of the Ji'an Organization (CSTO), Russia did not try its best. In the end, Armenia lost its control for nearly 30 years.The territory of Azerbaijan, and about one-third of the Jaca-Karabakh, who lived in the international recognition of Azerbaijan.
Although Russia sent peacekeeping forces to Naka to prevent conflicts between the two sides, Azerbaijan directly attacked Armenia territory in September 2022, and began to block the only channel to Naka in December. Russia, which is moving in UkraineUnreasonable gesture.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan once again mobilized Naka, Armenia did not dare to send troops to fight, Azerbaijana recovered Naka back in one day, the local government of Nakaka was arrested one after another.The local Asians who had a century -old racial hatred of each other fled to Naka. It was originally estimated that about 120,000 Armenian population was estimated. Now it is likely that only 50 to 1,000 people are left. UN observers have visited local towns a few days ago.null.
Like the defeat in 2020, the Amenian people went to the streets to protest Pashniytan's weak protection.It is also generally believed that Russia, which has continued to improve diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan in recent years, acquiesce in Azerbaijan Army, just to punish Pashniyan's official attitude towards the West after many years of protection.Speaker Pelosi visited, and in September this year, the Prime Minister personally led the team to send humanitarian rescue supplies to Ukraine for the first time, and welcomed the U.S. forces to conduct joint military drills in Armenia (press: the latter two are the signs of the signs of the army in Azerbaijan.It happened below).
After losing Naka, Pashniyan continued to criticize and criticize relying on Russia in a strategic error.This has also become the reasons behind Armenia to join the International Criminal Court, and even ignored Moscow last week that this was a "extreme hostility" warning.
As Pashnan accused Azerbaijan officials in the Nakaka race cleaning, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court to better investigate Azerbaijan in international law.This is obviously a symbolic action that Pashniyan officially relies on the west and try to leave the scope of Russia.
Although there are media reports that Pashniyan has officially proposed to the Russian side's guarantee that the arrest warrant will not be performed due to Putin's visit, Pashniyan himself has stated that Armenia has rely on the Rome Plot through the Rome Romance that he has relied more than years for many years.Neither the security system and allies are effective, and the various tools of Asia and Russia's strategic partnerships not only ensure the external security of Armenia, such remarks signal that it decides to demonstrate to Russia.
On the same day of joining the International Criminal Court in the Armenian Congress, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna also visited Armenia and reached a contract with subgroups in the future.Cologne also stated that the French has asked the European Union to join Armenia into the EU for the same time to assist Ukraine's military aid system.
France has a population of nearly 400,000 to 600,000 Armenian, and national political parties are also inclined to support Armenia regardless of their positions.After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the European Union began to increase natural gas from Azerbaijan as a source of alternative supply outside Russia. Therefore, only mediation characters in the conflict between Asia and Ah Afghanistan will only criticize Azerbaijan in "export surgery".There is no practical action.But one of the major countries that claim to sanction in Azerbaijan at the European Union include France.
It seems to have become a good relationship with the Russian eagle since this year, and Pashniyan obviously comes for Russia.
Although Azerbaijan has a member of Turkey, Azerbaijan, the script of Armenia's "throwing into the West" is different from Ukraine to NATO, but it is almost clear.This is not only the political orientation of the Pashyan government, but also unwilling to be "betrayed" by Russia (especially young people).
Will Armenia be "military punishment" like Ukraine?
For Armenia, which is also known as "ally" today, Putin does not need to take it in person.As the Ukrainian war ended, Moscow officials probably did not want to transfer resources to take care of their background.It can be seen from this Nakaka Flash Warfare in Azerbaijan that Azerbaijan itself is capable and willing to take the role of punishing Armenia. What Russia wants to do is to do nothing.
Especially, after Retu Naka, Azerbaijan has another major political requirement for Armenia: At present, Azerbaijan has another territory Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan is separated by Armenia territory. Afang has been asking forTo open a border between Armenia and Iran, a Zangezur Corridor managed by Azerbaijan to connect the two places.This disguise to cut off the AII border, infringe on Armenia sovereignty, and make Armenia more geographically isolated. Of course, it is not accepted by Armenia. Therefore, related disputes have always been a major obstacle for negotiations between the two parties.Since the force of force can "solve" the problem of Naka, can the problem of the Zaguzer Corridor be solved in the same way?
Different from Ukraine's situation in Europe, Armenia is surrounded by Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Iran. It is unable to support the West even if they have heart assistance, not to mention whether the West has a major question itself.
