This theoretically successful power adventure with only one -third of the natural success. Successfully becomes the capital of the capitalist's showing off. The people's property is built on the bubble, showing the wealth and excessive adventure to the social atmosphere.; Two -thirds of the probability of the probability of the sky form a large hole, like a black hole, devouring the wealth of the whole society, and letting people feel helpless.

After Evergrande Group and the actual controller Xu Jiayin fell down, the singer of the Qing Dynasty opera player Kong Shang Ren Taohua fan "See him from Zhu Lou, see his banquet, and see him collapsed!"People did not suddenly discover, but they were watching it. It was not just Evergrande, but also a lot of leveraged real estate companies.

"Give me a fulcrum, I can leverage the earth." Children who have learned about physical leverage in junior high school have learned about physical leverage.Who will let you leverage?However, in the Chinese real estate industry in the early 21st century, some people really used leverage to leverage 9.6 million square kilometers of real estate. Its characteristics were: using limited capital for financing (leverage), and then leverage funds as capital(Leverage on leverage), leverage on lever as a re -loan of capital ... This infinite leverage and many real estate companies, so they leveraged the real estate in China.

There are only three types of leverage funds: First, the housing prices involved in real estate projects (regional real estate) have been rising. The price increase houses can be sold smoothly. First of allThe net profit obtained can make up for the interest of N time leverage. The remaining income is the profit profit of housing companies and leverage gamblers.The second is that when the real estate project involved is at a stable price, the interest of N times and the profit of developers can be obtained.The third is that when real estate goes down, cash inflows cannot be recovered with cash. Developers' repayment of maturity interest has become a problem, and huge losses will occur. Transfer wealth, escape, and escape is an inevitable option.

The theoretical successful power adventure is only one -third of the natural success. Successful success has become the capital of capitalists to show off the capital.The failure of the second probability is to form a large hole, just like a black hole, devouring the wealth of the whole society, and letting people feel helpless.

Marx said: 100%of the capitalists will take risks, and 200%of profits will despise the law, and 300%of profits will follow everything in the world.Most people know that the profit margin of a real estate project cannot be 100%, so it is judged that the developer will not take the risk, but you are wrong. For developers with N times, he has developed a lot of projects with lever.The profit percentage depends entirely on his leverage.This matter represents a huge lack of social supervision.

First, the lack of industrial and commercial registration and law.

Company Law stipulates that shareholders are responsible for the amount of capital contribution.The company's sponsor and shareholders have not delivered the money, physical or unwanted property rights, false capital contributions, and deceiving creditors and the public, or order to make corrections, except for fines of less than 5%or less than 10%of false investments.Criminal Law stipulates false capital crimes and the crime of evasion capital: the non -delivery of the currency, physical or unfered property rights, false capital contributions, or the company's promoters and shareholders violated the company's regulations to withdraw their capital after the company was established.If there are other serious circumstances, a fine of less than five years in prison or detention, and fake funds for false capital funds or more than 1%or less than 10%of the funds or more.If the unit is offending the crime, the unit is punished, and the person in charge and other directly responsible persons who are directly responsible for them will be sentenced to imprisonment or detention of less than five years.

Leverage housing companies are playing with two types of tricks in the capital field: one is to use its own funds as registered capital and real -time capital; the funds that are blended with leverage are used as capital reserve.Another is to directly use leverage as a registered capital, income -collecting capital, and capital reserve, that is, all capitals are borrowed.Since the money of others borrowed, there is always a deadline and interest.This is not consistent with the definition of capital. The capital does not need to repay and pay interest during the company's operating period.

The second is in the processing method and parameters of the accounting method project (third edition) and other business processing, the lack of content or improper expression must be determined accurately.

Capital reserve is usually regarded as permanent capital and belongs to the category of capital.Capital provident fund comes from capital (or share capital) premium, accepting cash donations, transfer of funding, foreign currency capital conversion difference, other capital provident funds, non -cash asset preparations and equity investment preparations.

The funds of leveraged real estate companies are included in the capital of the capital provisional subject, which is funding for financing, not the legal channel for the source of capital, and is paid liabilities, and they usually set the interest cost of internal funds for their descendants.Before the profit distribution is required, the descendants are drawn from the descendants.

Project evaluation methods and parameters (third edition) are methods that should be followed by evaluation of construction projects; but they believe that this capital reserve has a quasi -capital nature after limited conditions.In fact, only after strictly limited its debt repayment sequence liabilities, and belonging to the interest, it has some attributes of the quasi capital, and the real situation is just the opposite. This is a high -interest, taking opportunity to allocate funds.

Third, there are major loopholes in bank credit control, loan review, and approval.

Before the 1990s, Chinese real estate companies were small. Most of them belonged to small and medium -sized real estate companies led by local governments. The development scale was limited. Banks could well determine their capital and control the risk of assets and liabilities.In the second half of the 1990s, Hong Kong real estate capital was introduced into the Mainland. In some provincial capital cities and hot cities, large -scale films were developed. Some developers registered capital only 1 Hong Kong dollars.Some sources are that shareholders have their own capital injection, and some are borrowing funds. Due to the differences and supervision of domestic and foreign social systems, financial systems, etc., it is difficult to judge its own funds and interest -free capital attributes of their capital sources.In terms of capital penetration, there is a certain difficulty, so the bank a certain loan amount is awarded by the bank, which actually belongs to the tentative credit increase.

After seeing this vulnerability, some domestic capital capital began to enter real estate crazy, but the capital was limited. They saw the huge profit of real estate and adopted extremely crazy financing -construction -sales model: For the government and banksAdopting domestic and overseas listing of capital raised capital, later went crazy to borrow money at home and abroad, used the borrowed money as capital, invested in registered housing companies in various places, and injected capital with capital as capital.In order to prevent banks from discovering that his capital was insufficient, he set up his descendants and grandchildren companies, a series of control relationships, making it difficult for grass -roots loan banks to penetrate and judge their capital and liabilities.

Because these real estate companies are developed nationwide, there are many, long lines, and wide faces, the head office of each bank has the responsibility for controlling total credit: that is, first understand the total capital of the group's real estate enterprise and the total equity of the real owner's equity, Determine the initial asset -liability ratio that should be controlled, that is, the level of financial leverage; secondly, find out its new real estate investment plan, count the profit level of various projects evaluated by various branches of its banks, determine its profit and loss, and then determine the new new new.The level of leverage of increased or decrease, increase or decrease its credit limit.But in fact, the head office of various banks did not do enough.

The bank supervision department has a significant responsibility: if the financial regulatory authorities have found that various banks have a cumulative 100 billion or trillions of trillion yuan in credit to one real estate group enterprise.100 million capital, reform and opening up for decades. Where can I have so much capital?Even if IPOs in many places, it can be counted.

Fourth, the policy of healing.

Clarifying the disease and cause, the group can find the policy of healing.

One is: to improve laws and regulations, block legal loopholes, and determine the legal responsibility of supervisors of various departments, It is not allowed to bear the responsibility of the risks of illegal adventure.

The second is: clarify the principle of responsibility, and for foreign financial institutions, they have experienced real estate development in major countries. They should have the professional knowledge and judgment ability of institutional investors, and should bear their over -financing responsibilities.Even when there is a problem, it signed a contract with the illegal developer that is not conducive to a third party, and it also belongs to the two parties to conceal the facts and maliciously collude. The contract is invalid.

The author is a bank loan appraiser in Shandong