Source: Bloomberg
Author: Greg Ritchie, Philip Aldrick, John Stepek
A new survey of Bloomberg found that after the next election of the UK, the Labor Party will be the best result for the stock market and the pound, because although it has passed a catastrophic mini budget to Tellas, it has passed.The Conservative Party still failed to win the confidence of global investors.
About two -thirds of financial professionals said that the Labor Party led by Keir Starmer or the party -based alliance will win the "most conducive to the market."For the Tori Party, which has long been deemed to be the natural partner of the business and the financial industry, this statement is tantamount to a loud slap on the face.
Although Prime Minister Sunak has been working hard to stabilize the economy since he replaced Trask last year, as much as 80%of the participants of 227 Markets Live Pulse surveys, as high as they have not fully restored their confidence in British assets.The respondents reported that they were investment group managers, traders and retail investors.
Tellas promised that the cost of borrowing in the UK was rising.One of the political heritage she left to the British is the rising loan interest rate, and now most interviewees predict that house prices will fall by 10%-20%or more.Investors also predict that the yield of bonds that reflect the borrowing rate is also higher than US Treasury bonds for many years.
George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura, said: "The market often believes that the Tori Party has better ability to manage the economy, but the current situation is that they have a mess in finance."
The poor polls of the Conservative Party were very different from the 2019 2019. At that time, Boris Johnson victory over the leader of the Labor Party, Jerry Cormi, who advocated nationalization and workers' participation.Investors were rejoicing for Corbin's defeat, and the pound and British stock market rose.
Since then, Stammer has softened industrial policies and shows goodness to London Financial City. He has gradually guided the Labor Party to return to the leaders of the former leader and the support of Tony Blair with the support of the middle voters.
The Brexit and Johnson blatantly disdain the worry that the business community has paid the price to the single market in Europe, which all harm the reputation of the Conservative Party to manage the economy.
Sunak, who has worked for hedge funds and served as a banker in Goldman Sachs Group, has been working hard to rebuild the bridge with business and EU and to appease the market with restrained budgets.But the depth of scars left by Tras, Brexit and Johnson could not heal for a while and a half days.
After the mini budget was announced in September last year, the pound fell against the US dollar to a historical low, and the British Treasury yield soared.The current British bond yield is still high compared to other countries.Although this largely reflects British inflation is more stubborn, it gives the Labor Party the opportunity to attack the Conservative Party.
The downturn in the property market
Sunak faces the leading advantage of up to 20 percentage points in the election polls, reflecting the multiple blows of the economy has received a multi -crash of Brexit trade barriers, living cost crisis and soaring interest rates.
There are households who are usually standing on the side of the Conservative Party, and this group will be a key battlefield for both sides in a general election that will be held next year.NATIONWIDE data shows that British house prices have fallen by about 5%over a year ago.
In the Bloomberg survey, more than half of the respondents expect house prices to fall by 10%-20%from peak to trough.This view is pessimistic than most analysts.The Niraj Shah forecast of Bloomberg Economic Research will be reduced by 10%; research consulting companies Kaitou macro will fall by 10.5%.
The strong labor market and the stable financial situation of many mortgage owners prevents housing prices more intense callback.However, the surge in credit costs has led to a significant decline in transactions. If hundreds of thousands of owners are re -mortgage for the existing low fixed interest rate mortgage loans, they will be frightened by the new month.
Reconstruction of the Labor Party
Before Blair achieved an overwhelming victory in 1997, chicken -tailed shrimp was brought out at the reception of the wine club to entertain the executives for appetizers. Now Stammer also adopts similar offensives to win business and financial elites.
Since replacing Corbin, Stammer has abandoned the nationalization plan.He and Shadow Treasury Minister Rachel Reeves ranked among the Davos Forum, fighting for the support of the Conservative Party, and showing the private equity company.
Reeves, who has served as a bank economist in England, promises that it will be more active and promote the development of key industries such as life science as a growth point.She guarantees not to launch a wealth tax and say that it will reduce supervision.
Former Conservative poll experts, Andrew Cooper, currently played for the Labor Party, said that the biggest risk of opposition parties "is the public that the public believes that their economic plans are unsustainable."He also said that the Labor Party was very careful when promoting his own economic ability, just like holding "a dance floor of the Ming Dynasty vase through the dance floor of the shoulder."In his words: "They have a huge leading advantage, but do not want to say anything to be clumsy."
Strequent stock market
Bloomberg survey also found that about three -thirds of investors believe that the Blue Chip's benchmark FTSE 100 Index will continue to lose the world in 2024."We have always heard that the United Kingdom has been cheap for many years," said an interviewee, "Maybe some large and mature economies have lost their magic, and will it be cheap?"
