According to the three situations stipulated in the principle of Article 8 of the Anti -split State Law, the author tries to refine it.condition".
According to the headline report on September 12, Lianhe Zaobao reported that when Professor Milsheimer, University of Chicago attended the Geed Political Summit Forum on the 11th, said that the most likely reason to explode the Taiwan Strait War was "Taiwan announced its independence"; Harvard UniversityProfessor Ellison, the founding dean of the Kennedy Government College, also believed that if Taiwan announced its independence, it would be likely to become the fuse of the Taiwan Strait War.
This is political and military common sense.As long as you pay attention to the Taiwan issue, even if you ask an old farmer in mainland China, if Taiwan is independent, should the mainland be fighting?The answer to the eight -nine nine is "hit".
But for professionals and interests, staying in Qian Qian is not enough to quench thirst, and you can further ask: How can the Taiwan Strait avoid war?In addition to Taiwan independence, what other options can detonate the Taiwan Strait War?Which Taiwan independence actions in Taiwan will trigger a fierce rebound or even martial arts in the mainland?For example, will Taiwan restore the secret study of nuclear weapons, will the mainland be indifferent?To answer these questions pragmatically, you may wish to study the core strategies of the United States and China to China.
The strategy of the United States is blurred
From 1979, Sino -US Construction has been paid until 2020, and the previous American government did not distinguish between party factions, and the complete expression of Taiwan's policy was: "A China 'policy based on the three joint communiqués of the Taiwan Relations Law and China and the United States."Taiwan Relations Law, China and the United States, three joint communiqués, one China, and three phrases for three phrases.The effectiveness of domestic law is higher than that of the national agreement, the international treaty, and the presidential administrative order.
This specification expression was upgraded after 41 years, and a phrase was added.On July 16, 2020, two telegrams from the US National Security Consultant Obrain, the then National Security Consultant, were the interpretation of the content of Taiwan's military sales in August 17 and the "six guarantees" of Taiwan.On August 31, the semi -official Organization of the United States in Taiwan (AIT) established in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Law announced these two decryption telegrams.
Six guarantees that the Reagan government, which is born 38 years ago, has long been a public secret.According to Li Jieming, director of the Office of the US Association in the Taiwan Association, on July 14, 1982, he notified six guarantees when he met Jiang Jingguo in Taiwan.There are no sources. "Obviously, the effect is not as good as the Sino -US joint commissions, and it is not as good as the Taiwan Relations Law.
Since 2020, the Trump administration's complete expression of Taiwan's policy is: "Based on the Taiwan Relations Law, the three joint communiqués of China and the United States, and the Six guarantees of the United States '" one China' policy. "Four phrases.At the same time, it is obviously more open and efficient for China's restraint intention.
Although the Bayeng government has frequently played Taiwan cards, it did not break through the strategic blurred of the four phrases of the "One Middle School" for Taiwan's policy and core logic. There are three evidence: First, Bayeng claims to "coordinate defense" Taiwan many times.Even if the error of patients with dementia, the White House or the State Council will quickly cool down many times as usual to clarify that the policy of the United States No. 1 Chinese China will remain unchanged.Motor rights are the lying strategic in themselves. Sending troops is a cooperative defense. Only sharing intelligence is a coordinated defense. Selling weapons in advance is also a coordinated defense.At the audit hearing, multiple members of the two parties demanded that the Bayeng government has a clear strategy to Taiwan, but Bernus clearly opposed it, insisting that "the United States to maintain a strategy is correct", and also opposed the United States to make clear cooperation on Taiwan to make clear cooperation on Taiwan.Defense commitment.
If there are "hypocrisy" in Chinese diplomacy, there is "cute" in the despicable US diplomacy. The position is clear, the means are spicy, and there is no concealment.In a word, the effectiveness of the policy of the United States is one arrow and four sculptures: deliberately blurring sovereignty and maintaining cross -strait splitting; continuously expanding Taiwan's international space; testing the Chinese government's tolerance bottom line; isolation, interference, delay, and even interrupting China’s ChinaRise.
China's strategy is blurred
At present, the strategic initiative of the Taiwan Strait situation is still in the hands of the United States.The United States has a lot of experience, a lot of restraint, and a lot of means.
On March 14, 2005, the third meeting of the 10th National People's Congress of China passed the anti -split national law during Hu Jintao.The author believes that this is one of the most beautiful things to work in Taiwan in the 45 years of reform and opening up in China. It has set a clear high -pressure red line for Taiwan independence, and also publicly wakes up the United States what is the bottom line of China.Taking this as the boundary, the mainland has more determination and endurance, firmly grasped the tactical dominance of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and focuses on China's strategic vagueness of Taiwan's policy.
Anti -split national law prefix is rarely crowned with the "People's Republic of China", leaving a wealth of imagination.Article 2 stipulates that "there is only one China in the world, the mainland and Taiwan belong to the same China, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China cannot be divided"."People's Republic of China".
Article 8 of the Anti -split State Law is the core terms and the most violent clauses. In essence, the State Council of the People's Republic of China (that is, the Central People's Government) and the Central Military Commission (that is, the Supreme Command Department)., Defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity: First, the split forces of Taiwan independence cause the facts of Taiwan to split from China in any name and way; 2. The occurrence of major incidents that will cause Taiwan to split from China; 3. The possibility of peace and unity will beWithout the loss, the country has to take non -peaceful methods and other necessary measures.
These three situations can be mounted to meet one of them.However, it does not specify what is the facts, major incidents, and completely losses; the specific conditions of martial arts have not stipulated the right to define, interpreted, initiative, and motor rights in mainland China.
On October 22, 1984, Deng Xiaoping spoke the core strategy of the mainland in the third plenary meeting of the Central Advisory Committee in the third plenary meeting: "We insist on seeking a peaceful way to solve the Taiwan issue, but there is no always no never.The possibility of abandoning non -peaceful ways, we cannot make such a promise ... We cannot rule out the use of force. We must remember this. Our next generation must remember this. This is a strategic consideration. "To cover it, Deng Xiaoping's logic is to stop the war.The threat war is not for the final war, but to curb the war, logic and the effectiveness of nuclear weapons.
The United States deliberately blurred its strategic strategy for Taiwan's policy. China ’s anti -split national law is also deliberately blurred, and both countries have to protect their core interests cleverly.China and the United States' strategy will not cause misjudgments, but they are more cautious. They can restrain the solution of Chinese military forces or interfere with the US forces in the United States, which can achieve strategic balance.
13 trigger conditions of Wutong
China's legislative practice is generally the National People's Congress and its Standing Committee formulated laws, and then the State Council has promulgated an administrative regulations as a refined support. However, it has not been promulgated for the implementation of anti -split national law for 18 years.According to the three situations stipulated in the principle of Article 8 of the Anti -split State Law, the author tries to refine it. It may trigger the mainland's active martial arts against Taiwan, which may be called "13 possible options for the Taiwan Strait War" or "Mainland Wu13 trigger conditions ".
1. Taiwan officially announces independence; two, Taiwan officials change the "national number" (such as "Taiwan Republic"), "territory" or corresponding constitutional amendments;Refusing to negotiate peacefully with the mainland; 5. Taiwan does not use the existing "national name" to establish diplomatic relations with the sovereign state;ForeignThe army enters Taiwan's golden horse;Known nuclear weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons); 10. Taiwan's force attacks the mainland (such as the threat of attacking Shanghai, Hong Kong, and the Three Gorges Dams into action); 11. Taiwan has continued to be seriously serious due to independent movement; 12, Taiwan continues to provoke the mainland with gradual independence and maliciousness; 13. Other triggers defined by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Mainland Government and the Standing Committee.
The last one is the bottom clause.People with a little common sense in China's politics clearly know that China's actual highest authority is the "leadership of all" the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government and its Standing Committee.In the hands of the Central Political Bureau of the Mainland Government and its Standing Committee.
Mills Heimer also stated at the forum that it can be clearly seen from the case of the Russian and Ukraine War that unless China is confident that it can quickly achieve a decisive victory, it will not easily launch the war.This is a one -way perspective of American scholars.I don't care.The outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war has indeed further reduced the probability of the Taiwan Strait War. The so -called "today's Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan" is mostly a fallacy of malicious speculation. The author will recently write another article to explain the views, logic, and arguments that are different from Mils Hemie.
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
