Not long ago, the statement of the "common values" of the two major democratic countries in India and the United States may sound inspiring people, but they do not constitute an alliance.The key to India -US relations is the balance of strength with China and the role of India in it.
When Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Bayeng in the White House in June, many observers believed that an evolved anti -Chinese alliance was forming.But such an idea is a bit overgressing.As the Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng clearly states that even in the multi -pole world of "enemies and friends", it is still possible to maintain long -term partnership, but the establishment of a formal alliance is not considering.
In the post -colonial era, India has a long history of the unbelievant of alliance relations.But it has also been focusing on China for a long time, and it has been the case since the outbreak of the Himalayan border war between the two countries in 1962.During the Carter administration, I was sent to India to encourage Prime Minister Moraji Desai to support the establishment of a South Asian nuclear weapon area to prevent the rapid development of nuclear competitions between India and Pakistan.Indian officials who received at the time told me that they did not want to compare with Pakistan in South Asia, but wanted to be compared with China in East Asia.
After the terrorist attack in 2001, the United States and India started a 20 -year "second track" conversation between the United States and India who still kept closely with the government with the government.Including Kissinger and Richard Holbroke.Like Indian participants and the United States, they are worried about AL QAEDA in Afghanistan and Pakistan (also known as base organizations) and extremist threats, but they also clearEssence
Indians are also worried about China, but they want to maintain a good relationship on the surface and the opportunity to enter the Chinese market.For a long time, China has been one of the largest trading partners in India, but its economic growth rate is much faster than India.Based on market exchange rates, China accounted for 3.6%of the world's GDP (GDP) at this century, but India did not reach this level until the 2020s.
In the 2000s, as China's economic growth far exceeded India, the Indians participating in the "Second Rail" talks not only worried about China's support for Pakistan, but also worried that it had grown globally.As an Indian strategist says: "We have decided that our (we refer to the United States )'s disgust is lower than the degree of disgust to China." This is a long time ago.Small -scale conflicts broke out in the region and caused 20 Indian soldiers to be killed.
Since then, the Indian -American Alliance has been greatly strengthened.Ten years ago, the four -party security dialogue meeting held by the United States, India, Japan, and Australia was diluted as much as possible; but now, the four -party security dialogue has been vigorously promoted and promoted to the government's head level.Today, the joint military exercises in India and the United States are more than that of any country.
However, this status quo is still far from alliance.More than half of India's weapons are still imported from Russia, and (with China) have become the main buyers of sanctioned Russian oil, and often vote in the United Nations to oppose the United States.In fact, India still refused to condemn Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022, just as it did not condemn the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan in 1979.Although it is the world's largest democratic country, India has not defended Ukraine for democratic countries.Its primary task is to ensure that we can continue to purchase weapons and oil, while avoiding further pushing Russia into China's embrace.
Although Bayeng invited Modi to participate in the two Democratic Summit in the United States, there were many critics in the West and India condemned Modi to the narrow Indian nationalism.Not long ago, the statement about the "common values" of the two major democratic countries may sound inspiring people, but they do not constitute the alliance.The key to India -US relations is the balance of strength with China and the role of India in it.
In this regard, the importance of India is constantly increasing.Earlier this year, India has surpassed China to become the world's most populous country.As the Indian population increased to 1.4 billion, the Chinese population has been declining, and its labor force has reached its peak.In addition, the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6%this year, becoming the fifth largest economy in the world, and this growth rate is faster than China.If India continues to grow at this speed, in the middle of this century, the economic scale may be equivalent to the euro area.
Because of many people, nuclear weapons, huge troops, growing labor, strong elite education, entrepreneurial culture, and close relationships with a large number of influential overseas diaspora, India will continue to become an important factor in the global balance of strength balance.EssenceBut we should not forget it.Relying on India alone cannot balance China, because China has a great leading development in development.China's economy is still five times that of India, and poverty in India is still a common phenomenon.Among the 900 million Indian labor ages, only about half entered the labor market, and more than one -third of women were illiterate.To make India's growing population a economic asset rather than potential negative, training is essential.Although China's labor population has reached its peak, the average education level is higher.
Although trade decoupling in key strategic fields, India still does not want to give up the opportunity to enter the Chinese market.It participated in the security dialogue, but also participated in regular meetings of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).Although India no longer hangs alliances to their mouths, they are still not interested in restricted alliances.The basic logic of the average political politics determines that India and the United States seem to be destined not to form an alliance, and they can only establish long -term partnership.As long as the two countries are still worried about China, this partnership will continue.
Author Joseph S. Nye, JR is a new book for the former American Assistant National Defense Minister of the United States to professor at Harvard University?The Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR To Trump) Original Title: India and the Global Balance of Power Copyright: Project Syndicate, 202 3.
