Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Lu Yi
China Electric Vehicle shocked European auto manufacturers at the "German International Auto Show" (IAA) in Munich this year.At the six -day Munich Motor Show, many Chinese brands such as BYD, MG, Zero Run, Xiaopeng, and Avita came from strong.Europeans finally couldn't sit still.On September 13, Ursula Von der Leyen, the Chairman of the European Commission, announced that it was announced in the European Parliament of Strasbourg to issue an anti -subsidy investigation of electric vehicles in China.In this statement, only one group of politicians cheered, but immediately let the European industry jump.
Why did the European Union take it?
As early as July this year, the European Union was about to launch anti -dumping and anti -subsidy surveys of Chinese -produced electric vehicles.The reason is that the European Union is uneasy about the entry of Chinese electric vehicles into the European market. They are worried that electric vehicles imported from China will pour into the European market at a very fast speed and scale, thereby threatening European local electric vehicles.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) data shows that 16%of electric vehicles sold in Europe in 2022 were imported from China. At that time, Thierry Breton, the European Union's internal market commissioner, said that "in favor of a dumping survey of Chinese electric vehicles and imported from China from ChinaThe rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles has become a problem facing the EU industry. "
Data show that China has ranked first in the production and sales of new energy vehicles for eight consecutive years.In the first quarter of this year, China also surpassed Japan for the first time and became the world's largest exporter.
First look at a set of data. Data from SART Automotive Research Company show that the share of Chinese auto brands in the European Union market has increased from less than 1%in 2021 to 2.8%this year.In the electric vehicle market, the sales of Chinese manufacturers accounted for 8%of total sales, higher than 6%last year and 4%in 2021.In the first half of this year, the sales of electric vehicles in Europe in Europe were almost the same as the year in 2022.China's share in the European electric vehicle market has increased more than doubled in less than two years.
It is worth mentioning that in the European pure electric vehicle market, Volvo, MG, and Polar Star, the top three brands in 2022, are also European car brands acquired by Chinese car companies, accounting for European pure electric vehicles.8.6%of the market share.The European Commission, which caused an anti -subsidy investigation, said that China's market share of electric vehicles sold in Europe has risen to 8%and may reach 15%in 2025.8%, it doesn't seem to be very high, what is so nervous about the European Union?You know, in 2018, this data is only 0.1%.
Price advantage comes from subsidies?
The European Commission said that the rapid growth of Chinese trams in the European market is mainly due to the general price advantage of about 20%compared to European models by Chinese electric vehicles.This is indeed a fact.Chinese trams have a high cost -effectiveness than European tram brands.
But EU members believe that this price advantage is mainly from government subsidies.Feng Delin said, "The global market is now full of cheaper Chinese electric vehicles, and their prices are lowered by huge state subsidies, which distorts our market." Is this so?
In fact, China's new energy vehicle subsidies have been retreating.2018 is the starting point of a significant retreat of bicycle subsidies. The subsidy threshold increased from 100 kilometers to 150 kilometers from battery life. Subsidies for low endurance vehicles generally reduced by more than 10,000 yuan (RMB S $ 1874).Increased.Beginning in 2019, the maximum subsidy amount has dropped from 50,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan, and the subsidy threshold has been significantly increased to more than 250 kilometers.Since this year, China's new energy vehicle subsidies have begun to fully and retreat.From 2020 to 2022, China New Energy Vehicle subsidies have declined at a rate of 30%per year. Starting from January 1, 2023, the subsidy policy has been completely canceled, and the policy of free purchase tax for new energy vehicles is retained.
On the other hand, in the US inflation reduction bill, the subsidies for new energy are more than US $ 300 billion (S $ 409 billion).EU countries have strengthened subsidies for new energy vehicles since 2020, more than 6,000 euros (S $ 8731) in Germany, 5,000 euros in France, and 3,000 euros in Italy (the old car is replaced with 2,000 euros).
"Government subsidies" are not unique to China, but as long as the price is low, it is naturally hung with the Chinese government subsidy.However, it will not say that the supply chain of the upstream and downstream industries of Chinese automobiles has been very complete, and the scale has further brought the cost advantage, and the long -term accumulation of the network industry is superimposed, which allows the final product to achieve any other car at the same price.An experience that companies cannot give.
When Chinese car companies struggled to fight for the new energy track, the old European car companies were eating old books.On the one hand, to maintain the competitive advantage, only 20%-25%of the gross profit margin is maintained; on the other hand, if you just want to make a lot of money, the gross profit margin is less than 30%-40%., Quality control and user experience, behind it is the mission of independent innovation, and the industrial upgrade of the footprints step by step, while some EU politicians have paid the Chinese people's unremitting efforts as "subsidies".
How impact does it affect Chinese car companies?
Chinese electric vehicles currently sold in the European market are the European brands acquired by Chinese car companies or models with the background of European brands, such as SAIC MG, Dongfeng Yijit, Geely Link, Smart.Among these brands, except for SAIC MG and SMART, the rest are mainly produced in Europe, so although they are included in the Chinese brand in sales, they will not be affected by counter -subsidy investigation.
SAIC, SMART, BYD, Great Wall, Jianghuai, Xiaopeng, etc. produced in China, car companies exporting to Europe will become the main targets of this survey, but only the sales of SAIC and SMART European markets are relatively high.The current sales of other brands in Europe only account for less than 1%of the total sales volume of the car company, which is minimal.
Looking at it further, SAIC MG and SMART are produced in China and exported to Europe.Among them, SMART has a small sales, and Mercedes -Benz still holds 43.397%of the brand. It is also the largest shareholder of Geely Motors. The anti -subsidy survey has limited impact on it.SAIC MG is the brand that is most likely to be affected by the survey of the subsidy. It is produced in China, sold in Europe, and has a considerable sales.In the first half of 2023, MG sold 45,000 units in the European market, and it is expected to exceed 100,000 units throughout the year. It is one of the fastest -growing car brands in the European market.However, MG has been sold in Europe for many years, and the price has not fluctuated due to the changes in China's new energy vehicle subsidies. It has maintained stability for a long time. It is difficult to prove that its price has benefited from China's new energy vehicle subsidies.Moreover, MG's local distribution network in Europe is huge. During the process of SAIC's defense, the cooperation of importers and dealers in Europe can be an effective help for SAIC defense.
In the long run, the observation window in the next 2-3 anniversary.At the Munich Motor Show, Chinese new energy vehicle companies became absolute protagonists, and Chinese companies exhibited mass production models.Although European car companies have also come up with the best new energy vehicles to participate in the exhibition so far, most of these exhibition vehicles are models that will not be launched in the market from 2025 to 2026.After two to three years, the models that will be released are equivalent to the current level of mass production car technology in Chinese car companies, which means that in the next two to three years, in the face of the products of Chinese car companies, European car companies have almost no power to fight back.The European automobile industry has shocked huge.It depends on how much Chinese car companies can seize the market share during this time.It should be said that under the circumstances that there is no competitiveness at all, Europe wants to respond to the competition of Chinese car companies before its next -generation new energy vehicles is launched, and trade methods such as anti -subsidy investigation are almost the only choice.
However, Chinese car companies are currently not dependent on the EU market. Even if the anti -subsidy survey has made a positive conclusion, it will not have a significant impact on the operating conditions of Chinese car companies.
Who is injured in the lessons of the car
Chinese electric vehicles are of course not the first industry to be stared at.As early as 2012, the United States and the European Union initiated anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on China's photovoltaic exports at the same time, and levied high punitive tariffs. China's photovoltaic exports fell by 30%-40%instantly.
But soon, the surviving photovoltaic enterprises and the national authorities soon realized that core technology and industrial chain and supply chain are the real "destiny".China's photovoltaic industry began to tackle.On the one hand, the government actively introduces related industrial policies. On the other hand, photovoltaic enterprises are painful and innovative.A large number of enterprises adhere to the belief of "not leading the lead and not expanding production, not in the neck and not involved", and continuously increased the investment in scientific research investment and scientific and technological innovation.Highly autonomous industry.At the same time, Chinese companies that rely on the world's largest consumer market, through continuous trial and error verification process, and then expand the production scale reduction and improve quality, and finally accumulate comprehensive advantages to form a positive cycle.
After fierce competition, Chinese photovoltaics have been levied overseas again in technology, costs, products, and services, while European and American companies in the high walls and among the sidelines have not produced any epoch -making innovations.It is also this time that the European Union finally understood that whether it is a "double anti" survey or a technical blockade, it can no longer be encircled in the Chinese photovoltaic industry. If it continues to do this, it will only be itself.So in 2018, the European Commission issued an announcement- "Anti -dumping and anti -subsidy measures for Chinese solar cells."
China's photovoltaic anti -wind turning reveals a simple truth: swimming can only be learned in swimming, and market competitiveness cannot be protected.
Bloomberg published a comment article on September 13 stating that Europe's attack on Chinese electric vehicles was "Play with Fire", which hurt European consumers and also affected Chinese enterprises' willingness to invest in Europe.France thinks that there is a tough capital, but if the Chinese side counterattacks, there will be no less chips in their hands.After the investigation, Europe was worried about recruiting Chinese counterattacks, and it was better to focus on itself and improve the competitiveness of electric vehicles.
In fact, from photovoltaic and wind power to new energy vehicles, it has its consistency: China is passively beaten but actively seeking changes, while Europe and the United States are dragging in the inherent advantageous industry. This is the root cause of the industrial gap.EssenceAnd this is also doomed to be useless.
