China's economic performance in the first half of this year has aroused heated discussion.Although the 5.5%growth rate obtained is not only significantly higher than the growth rate of developed countries, but also far higher than the economic performance of major developing countries, such as India, Vietnam, and Brazil, it still disappoints many people.There are two reasons. One is that in the later stage of China's epidemic prevention and control stage, economic growth slowed down significantly. Last year, it only achieved a growth rate of 3%. The production potential was greatly suppressed.
When the epidemic prevention and control finally let go, people's expectations for economic recovery are very high.In the case of lower bases last year, 5.5%growth rate is generally lower than people's expectations.
We can understand the dilemma facing the Chinese economy from four aspects.From the outside, in the first half of this year, the global economy is still in a fragile recovery period. The growth of major economies is generally lower than the potential growth level, which affects global investment confidence as a whole.Coupled with the increasing international geopolitical confrontation in recent years, the normal operation of the global supply chain and the international trading system has been greatly interfered with.These factors have affected China's export performance in the first half of this year, and the contribution of net exports to growth has even become a negative number.
From China, it is difficult to completely disappear in a short period of time for the epidemic in the economy. People's psychological fear and concerns have not yet dissipated, which will affect the willingness of investment and consumption.Some policies introduced in China in the past few years have aroused panic and misunderstandings of people. Market expectations and confidence have been hit, and the private economy is the first.It is expected that weakening, lack of confidence, and insufficient power are the main problems that affect economic growth.
The long -term economic structural problems are more contradictory when the economy is weak.In the past 40 years, the motivation for China's economic growth is mainly exported to the outside world and investing in inside.But the motivation to drive the economy has been obviously insufficient.
China has begun to boost the demand for the domestic market, but domestic investment demand has been different in the past.Infrastructure investment in traditional categories is close to saturation points, and the role of the national economic pillar industry played by real estate for a long time is also diluted.The transition to the new model of new infrastructure and real estate is a correct direction, but it still takes a long time to complete.
Under this situation, China has shifted the focus of development to stimulate domestic consumer demand.During the epidemic, residents' consumption was greatly suppressed. After the epidemic control was released, consumption showed a large growth trend. In the end, the growth rate of consumption expenditure contributed to the economic growth in the first half of this year.Pull the economy.Therefore, further excavating consumption potential is of great significance for the stability of the Chinese economy. At least it can alleviate economic pressure in the short term and create a new time window for long -term structural adjustment.
Not long ago, the Political Bureau of the Mainland Government and relevant ministries and commissions densely introduced policies and measures to stimulate consumption to encourage consumption, including supporting car, electronic products, home furnishings and other consumption, promoting sports, leisure, cultural tourism and other services.Consumption.As the debt risk of local governments has continued to rise, it is unlikely to launch large -scale financial stimulus measures.In the external environment of high interest rates and strong dollars, monetary policy must be very cautious.Therefore, this consumption stimulus is mainly policy encouragement and recovery confidence, including measures that promote urban renewal and promote the development of private economy and stabilize the economy -related measures, rather than directly issuing cash subsidies such as consumer vouchers.Local governments at all levels have also launched encouraging consumption policies with local characteristics.This big measures are believed to have a good effect and support the economic growth in the second half of the year.
Stimulating consumption is more significant to optimize long -term economic structure.China's consumption consumption accounts for the total domestic product (GDP) ratio. Although it has increased in the past, it is still less than 39%, which is far less than the world's average level.This model is difficult to continue.China's long -term development must greatly improve the consumption of residents and truly become one of the three driving carriages that are beneficial to economic growth.The improvement of consumption also finds a new way for domestic excess capacity and provides new profit guarantees for Chinese companies.Without the needs of the consumer market, companies will lose their motivation for development and innovation.
Although the promotion of consumer demand has a short -term and long -term benefits, the improvement of sustainable demand also faces many difficulties and challenges.In the long run, the continuous booster of residents 'consumption depends on the growth of residents' income, mainly for wage income, operating income and asset income.China's current challenge is that residents' income growth is lower than the level before the epidemic. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in the first half of 2022 and 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents across the country increased by 5.0%and 6.5%, respectively.The growth rate of each year.Slowing income growth will lead to insufficient endogenous motivation for consumer durable growth.
The factors behind the growth of wage income are employment.China's employment situation is facing great challenges, especially the employment of young people and migrant workers is particularly serious.The development of the economy, especially to vigorously support the private economy, is the key to solving employment and income income.What is related to this is the operating income of residents.Because small and micro enterprises have been greatly impacted in the epidemic, it has affected the increase in the operating income of residents.
It is worth mentioning that in more than two years, the valuation of China's stock market has fallen, which has a great impact on the property income of more than 200 million retail investors.The downturn in the real estate market has greatly reduced revenue expectations by relying on real estate to obtain investment and rental income.
Therefore, increasing residential income is the result of multiple efforts. It is necessary to increase residential income from various perspectives, including strongly supporting the development and employment of small, medium and micro enterprises, stabilizing the wealth effect of the real estate market and exerting the capital market.Continue to increase the overall income of residents and boost the long -term consumption.
Another important issue is how to stabilize and improve people's marginal consumption tendencies, which is not only willing to pay for people's income to consume instead of savings.This largely depends on people's expectations for the future.In the past two years, Chinese residents have shown excess savings. This is not only affected by the epidemic, but also related to the aging of the population and the insufficient social security system.The active consumption willingness of aging groups is not strong, and young people have difficulty employment, which have a negative impact on consumption.
In short, the persistence of China's consumption level is extremely important, but it also faces huge challenges. It is necessary to combine with a new model of building China's economic development, and even the reform and adjustment of the entire social security system.Not only to increase the number of consumption, but also the consumption upgrade, which is compatible with the model of the overall and high -quality development of the economy.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Associate Professor of Li Guangyao School of Public Policy
The English Electronics Magazine "ThinkChina" (ThinkChina "
