Source: Zhongshi Electronic News
Industrial and Commercial Times Review
The results of the investigation of trade barriers to Taiwan, which were originally expected to be announced on October 12, the Ministry of Commerce of the Mainland "spoiled" early on August 17: It determines that Taiwan does have the rules of violations of the WTO (WTO) rules of the mainland.Unfair trade.The State Council also emphasized that based on this "study suspension or partially suspended the preferential tariffs under the ECFA term"; the voice has just fallen, and on the 21st, it is announced that it will suspend the suspension of Taiwan mango into the mainland from now on.Because this is the first time that the mainland government has settled or adjusted the release of ECFA for such a clear message. For a while, the Taiwanese industry felt the trend of mountain rain.
It is foreseeable that: with the increase in the downward pressure of the mainland's economy and the high nationalist emotions, the mainland government is bound to be more active to benefit the benefits of Taiwan.If the government still cannot change the passive defensive strategy of the past at this moment, and predict its actions and advance deployment, it will not only lose the opportunity to solve the problem, but also put cross -strait relations into an incredible situation.Again, at this moment on the cross -strait economic and trade arrows on the string, if the mainland government cannot correctly interpret the strategic intention of the mainland government to Taiwan, it will not be able to propose a strategic response strategy.
Although ECFA (Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement Agreement), early collection of goods accounted for Taiwan's exporting mainland, from the highest 26 % to about 16.9 % last year., Transportation, Machinery, Textiles, including 521 industrial products and 18 agricultural products, and 18 agricultural products have been exempted from nearly 10 billion US dollars tariffs.If ECFA's 539 early collection lists have been canceled, and even as requisitioned by petrochemical products a few days ago, large companies in these traditional industries must only be responded through overseas production layouts, while small and medium -sized enterprises will face more severe seriousnessMarket competition.
However, the stopping of ECFA is not the biggest crisis in Taiwan.Because Taiwan enjoys a substantial surplus on the mainland, under the premise of determining that Taiwan ’s trade barriers to the mainland’ s existence on the mainland, whether it is required to open the land -based products based on fair trade, or a punitive tariff on Taiwan ’s infusions, or even to Taiwan, or even TaiwanTake restrictions on import measures, etc. For Taiwan, there will be an unprecedented economic and trade storm.
In recent years, with the changes in the international situation and the low cross -strait relations, the mainland government has proposed various "benefit platforms" measures, and it has also implemented "extreme pressure" in politics, military, and economic and trade.Because cross -strait economic and trade bonds are relatively close, the mainland government's restrictions on Taiwan in the economic and trade field are particularly easy to make Taiwan "feel".
The newspaper theory reminded last year that it should face the economic and trade risks of Taiwan after the mainland government, especially the mainland's magnetic Taiwanese enterprises to weaken Taiwan to weaken Taiwan's economic momentum, and forced the Taiwan government for economic and trade sanctions to force the Taiwan government.Accept negotiation.Say is still in the ear. Following the two years of agricultural and fishery products forbidden and processed food registration disorders, the mainland government has sacrificed trade barriers to Taiwan this year, levy carbonate (PC) anti -dumping taxes, and recycling ECFA tariffs for profit benefits.Information.However, in the face of the repeated recruitment of the mainland government, in addition to the "inertia" of the Tsai government's criticism, the Tsai government can only give the taxpayer to subsidize with large coins, or propose a diversified market strategy.The reason for this is due to the misunderstanding of the strategic intention of the mainland government.
In fact, with the expansion of the United States -dominated Western countries, the mainland government has more clearly emphasized the main axis of Taiwan's policy, and the promotion of "economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation" has been emphasized to emphasize "economic and social integration and development."For example, after the mainland government has set up this year for cross -strait exchanges this year, and whether Taiwan has not opened mainland professionals to come to Taiwan, even if the cross -strait relations are relatively tight, many provincial and municipal officials in the mainland still expressed their hope to go to Taiwan to exchange exchanges.At the same time, at the same time, from the central government, from the central government, from the coast to the inland, the recent expansion of various types of mainland provinces and cities, such as "Taiwan Week" and other types of economic and trade activities, hoping to attract more Taiwanese companies to develop in land.On the one hand, these measures of the mainland government are of course to establish a closer cross -strait economic and trade bond; on the other hand, they hope that Taiwanese companies can play the driving force for the upgrading and transformation of mainland industries;
In other words, under the strategy of integrating the development strategy, the mainland government's implementation of the best situation in Taiwan's policy is the cross -strait exchanges that resume the dialogue and restore the past, and even further promote cross -strait industrial cooperation.For the mainland government, the recycling of the past benefits Taiwan, and at the same time, the "benefit measures" are limited in the "poor Taiwan" strategy of companies to Taiwan and Taiwan, which will not only stir up the risk of Taiwan's nationalist emotions, but alsoIt will make the soul on both sides of the strait that meet the road.Therefore, the enthusiasts through economic and trade policy tools are not the best strategy choice for the mainland government; how to maintain or even strengthen links, and at the same time constructing Taiwan's economic and trade structure to land on land is the real strategic goal of the mainland government's economic and trade in Taiwan.
Faced with the economic and trade strategy of the mainland government, Taiwan can choose to push the boat smoothly, or it can also go against the water; each choice is accompanied by the corresponding risks and opportunities.In a word, under the premise of mastering the strategic intention of the mainland government, Taiwan should set a feasible short and medium -term goal based on the international situation and the reality of cross -strait reality; under the reasonable allocation of resource allocation, the pros and cons of different choices will be invested.Any wish or a tiger Feng He will put Taiwan into a larger and incredible crisis.
