Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
Mainland China announced a few days ago that it intercepts the harmful biological ocean hip -pink pink and suspend the mango input in Taiwan.The Ministry of Agriculture of the Taiwan Agriculture responded that since 2018, only two batches of mangoes have been detected, but it is prohibited from entering by Lu Fang with strong means, which does not match international practice.The mango production season is from May to July. It is currently coming to an end. This year, the mainland mango this year is only about 1,000 tons, accounting for a limited output of 174,000 tons.Farmers' income.
Although the impact is not great, one week before this incident, Lu Fang just had a chemical material "polycarbonate" on the ECFA earlier list of early ECFA collection lists.Anti -dumping measures, the tax rate is between 16.9%and 22.4%. If it is finalized, it will be converted to anti -dumping tax, causing the Taiwan industry to worry about the suspension of ECFA by the ECFA.In addition, Lu Fang announced on April 12 that 2,455 products such as 2,455 products including Taiwan's control of agricultural products, tortual chemical products, and textiles were exported to Taiwan, which involved an investigation of "trade barriers".However, it can be postponed at the latest until January 12 next year. It happened to be the day before the Taiwan election. Many Taiwanese people believe that it has a strong political meaning.
Later, the Ministry of Commerce of the Land Fang announced that Taiwan unilaterally restricts a large number of mainland products input, violating the WTO and the spirit of ECFA, and will study the discount of tariffs on Taiwan products to provide Taiwan products in accordance with relevant regulations.However, Sun Yafu, the vice president of the Maritime Association, did not agree, and pointed out that the officials and the media of the mainland never said that they would suspend the ECFA, both of which were hype of Taiwanese media.
In the face of these cross -strait trade disturbances, how should we interpret it?The two sides of the strait are members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and they are regarded as the WTO norms.However, when the rules are implemented, it is unlikely that there is no room for operation, and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have different inertia-Taiwan adheres to the WTO's "Rule-Based" trade.; But the land side has been affected by the concept of "super limited war" for a long time, and trade is naturally affected by politics.Therefore, when Taiwan accused the mainland as a "political consideration", it said that he did not understand the thinking of the other side.However, knowing that Lufang has political considerations, Taiwan cannot give up this huge market lightly because other markets cannot be completely replaced; so the best strategy is to make the other party's self -standards as much as possible while trade with it, and strive to reduce risks.Improve the overall and long -term trade gains.
Based on this, we must realize that when cross -strait relations continue to deteriorate, trade will inevitably encounter more and more opportunities to take the opportunity cup, including the fierce use of agricultural product quarantine issues, and various prohibited products from entering the station. ""Contrary to ban Taiwan goods input, ECFA's early collection list or completely canceled.If Taiwan is unable to fully transfer the export target, it must work harder to reduce the "excuses" that may be used on the other side -including improving the effectiveness of the self -quarantine of agricultural products, the active opening of the products imported by the land to the side year by year, and research in various supporting adjustment mechanismsSelf -stop ECFA, or choose to further review and restart the consultation, complete the entire set of cross -strait free trade agreements (FTA) as soon as possible, and transform "sugar -coated poison" into "milk honey", especially on both sides of the strait to apply for CPTPP to join CPTPPBelow, the two sides of the strait should be signed by the two sides of the strait as the other members.
In fact, the Tsai government should consider it carefully, and re -complete the ECFA containing "trade trade" and "service trade" on the other side, in exchange for the opposite side of Ge Taiwan to join CPTPP and RCEP to allow greater market forces to play a role, let the Taiwan economy make the Taiwan economyPlay more effectively and accelerate economic development.As long as this is announced, the opposite side should not increase "political considerations". After completing the effect, Taiwan's goods exports will be more tax -free, and the development of the service industry can also get a soothing opportunity.At present, the traditional manufacturing industry in Taiwan is unable to face the severe atrophy of tariffs and the development of deformed industrial structure; the service industry lacks sufficient markets, unable to make significant investments, it is difficult to improve productivity, and it is caught in a "revenue stretch trap".Before the Sunflower Study, the average monthly income of services and manufacturing is 3,000 yuan, which has expanded to 8,000 yuan last year. This problem does not solve it, and it will be a "black hole" that any governor must face.
Mango, polycarbonate, and ECFA are independent at first glance, but they are actually closely related. The overall solution is the right.
