In recent months, the economic climate conversion of mainland China has changed, the sky clouds have turned dark, the economic stagnation and shrinking are shrunk.The National Bureau of Statistics announced in July economic data. The year -on -year growth rate of industrial production, social zero consumption, and fixed assets was 3.7%, 2.5%, and 3.4%, respectively, all lower than market expectations, and the central bank had to cut interest rates again.It is generally worried that China has entered the mud shimmer, and it is difficult to reproduce Qingtian in the short term.
The official claim that the economic recovery after the epidemic is "wavy development and twists and turns", but the waves presented on the market only see the fall, and the curve has not seen upward.Although the service demand is released, the scar is expensive; the manufacturing industry cannot see structural recovery, but the shadow of comprehensive atrophy is available.It has been fully liberalized for more than eight months, but the economy has not returned to the growth path before the epidemic.Promoting banks to support the real estate industry's bailout, which is far from meeting the urgent market demand.
China's economy has deviated from the growth path, and the gap between consumption, investment and foreign trade has not effectively narrowed.This is almost the only one since the reform and opening up.The most destructive is the real estate market. The breach of breach of contract and the fund chain is abound. The confidence is low to the bottom of the valley, and the downward pressure is still bottomless.
Overall, the main reason for the current economic downward pressure is the main reason. From a macro perspective, the total demand is insufficient. From the micro perspective, it is a bad confidence. From the perspective of specific performance, the external demand and export are declined.Demand for abnormalities, poor consumption demand for residents, and negative investment in private and foreign investment.Of course, there are international factors, but the main needs are insufficient internal demand.
In July, exports increased by 14.5%year -on -year, and exports plummeted reflected the slowdown in foreign demand, and it was difficult to recover in the short term.The economy will continue to slow down, and shrinkage will also intensify.
The most lethal is that social retail consumption is dragged down by goods retail, especially home appliances, furniture, home improvement and other real estate consumption.%Drop to 3.9%.The serious decline of real estate investment has a significant impact. In July, the sales area and sales of commercial housing, the year-on-year growth rate fell to -28.9%and -28.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment dropped to -12.1%.
It is different from the normal state that the residents' medium- and long -term loans have a negative growth. On the one hand, the demand for house purchase is sluggish, and the other reason is that the asset yield is declining, resulting in residents repay the loan in advance.These shocking data point to a problem, that is, tightness, which is more lethal about economic development than inflation.
Although the official reduces the cost of physical financing, stimulates the demand for residents and corporate credit, and accelerates the growth rate of infrastructure investment, expands the overall demand, and has a little effect on the economy, the main problem is that private enterprises and private confidence in the future of the futureAs a result of weakness, the overall economic momentum is weak.
In the past two years, the real estate industry has been sluggish due to too much on, and it has created a credit crisis in hand delivery as a leading company in real estate and related chain companies.In addition, due to the government's increased efforts to monitor and rectify, the financial and Internet industries have been impacted, and costs have to be reduced.The supply side is constrained to form a clear constraint on economic recovery.After the government has failed to increase the effective supply in time after the anti -epidemic prevention of the epidemic, relieve outdated restrictive measures, provide support for enterprises in terms of financing and employment, and promote the rapid recovery of related production capacity. It has also become a failure to boost demand for demand.One reason.
Exchange rates and credit vote for China's economic prospects.Since the beginning of this year, the renminbi has been depreciated by more than 5%. If the economic weak state continues, the RMB will face a greater reverse wind, and it will be difficult to turn back.In July, China ’s credit growth hit a record low. The number of new loans was 345.9 billion yuan (about S $ 64.5 billion), a decrease of 89%from the show in June, and significantly below 679 billion yuan in July 2022. This is 2009 in 2009. This is 2009. This is 2009. This is 2009In November of November, the minimum new loan volume showed a risk of tightening risks, and the pressure on economic growth increased.
House leaks are overnight, and the largest real estate companies Evergrande and Country Garden are facing debt repayment crisis. The largest asset management company Zhongrong Trust is also thunderstorm. The market is worried that I do n’t know how many unscrupulous bombs will be detonated.Although these unblied bombs are visible as the pain of the transition period, they will inevitably lower the market confidence and tighten the metropolitan stones.
In July, the bank loan of China fell on the cliff, and other major credit indicators also showed that the demand was weak. Tong contraction was not just concerned, but was imminent. The official steps adopted by the official could not reverse the deflation.Once the shrinking becomes generally expected, it will further intensify.Because if the price of various products is expected to continue to fall, it will postpone the purchase of high -priced goods such as houses and home appliances. As a result, it will further suppress economic activities and even force the price to reduce the price.The lower willingness to consumption, resulting in a decrease in expenditure, will cause the economy to fall into a spiral state.
The investment behavior of enterprises is also the same.The price of product prices is usually accompanied by income and profit decline, and companies tend to suppress investment and personnel recruitment.This is the case for "lost" Japan. In the 1990s, prices fell, which led to the lack of investment in enterprises. The economy was in a state of stagnation for a long time. The government's various stimulus policies and the central bank's negative interest rate policies had little effect.
The People's Bank of China can only slow down interest rates. Because the RMB depreciation and capital outflow are very large, it is not as loose as the Japanese government. It is even more unpredictable to boost the effect of boosting the economy.
What to do?The priority is to revitalize the demand to reduce interest rates greater than ever before, followed by the confidence of restoring the real estate market with extraordinary means, and it is necessary to adopt very means in a very period.China should remember the lessons of Japan in the 1990s. It must be fast and large. It is necessary to increase the adjustment of macro policy, increase the motivation of commercial and consumer engines, focus on expanding domestic demand, boost private enterprise and public confidence, prevent economic downturn and decline and economic downside and economic downside and economic downside and economic downlink and economic downlink and economic downlink and economic downlink and economic downlink and economic downlink and economic downside and downstream.The risk of shrinking.
The author is the former chairman of the Central News Agency and a senior media person in Taiwan
