Source: Bloomberg
The exchange rate of the ruble is falling, and the Wagner rebellion's Yu Bo is still rippling. The war in Ukraine has been 18 months old and can't see the end.
According to four people close to the Kremlin, although senior officials and business tycies spread their anxiety in the future, Putin had prepared for the fifth term in the March 2024 election.
One of them, and another person who is closely related to the government, said that the Russian Central Bank's urgent interest rate hike last week was not only a response to the decline in rubles, but also part of the widespread efforts to suppress inflation before the election.
If the election is not considered, the central bank may wait until the next monetary policy meeting.According to the current situation, the central bank is facing pressure from Putin's staff, requiring a stable exchange rate and preventing actual household income from further decline.
A person familiar with the matter said that the government is still formulating a three -year budget plan to provide sweets before the election, including additional stimulating measures that may accelerate inflation, which has increased the urgency of controlling ruble exchange rates.
"Domestic political factors tend to support the tightening monetary policy," said Alexander Isakov, a Russian economist in Bloomberg's economic research."If the ruble continues to depreciate, it will cause the inflation rate to rise by 1-1.5 percentage points, and the price of prices will reach the peak at the wrong time, just on the eve of the March election next year."
Although few people think that Putin's control of power is facing any imminent threat, after the attempted rebellion of Wagner's mercenary leader Pricig, Putin's authority as a stabilizer was hit by a major blow.
The Kremlin hopes to use this election as an opportunity to show that Putin is a widely supported leader. Not only does it control the domestic situation, it is also a bamboo in the face of the United States and NATO.
Although many countries refused to impose sanctions against Ukraine with the United States, the European Union, and allies, Putin still had to give up the BRICS leader summit this month, highlighting his international isolation.The existence of the International Criminal Court of Putin made the Russian leader's visit to a dangerous thing, even if it was a friendly country such as South Africa.
His response to the Wagner rebellion was weak, but later he did not punish Perigen, which surprised the elite class, aroused the possibility of officials' possibility of high -level internal fighting or further challenges.The dissatisfaction of Russia's poor performance on the battlefield is still fermenting.
The main goal of Pryoh's rebellion -Minister of Defense, Shohurgu and Chief of Staff Gracimo, are still in their posts, but according to the two insiders, he tried to make them work hard.It has received some support from key national security agencies.
According to five familiar people who know the situation, security hardships hope that Shaoyu is replaced to increase the efforts of war, including comprehensive mobilization and martial arts.But so far, there are no signs that they will be removed from office.
Putin, 70, has been the longest in Russia's long -term power since the modern history of Russia. If he works in the Kremlin until 2030, he will tie Stalin.After modifying the constitution to allow him to do two more term, he could even do it until 2036.
"Putin himself does not feel weakened. He believes that he is at its peak, full of confidence in himself, optimism or even ecstasy," said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the consulting company R.Politik."Even Putin's closest accompanying personnel can question his decision to participate in the election."
Although the worries of the Russian elite are increasingly rising, Putin is still very popular for ordinary voters.According to the LEVADA Center of Moscow's independent research institutions, Putin's personal support rate is as high as 82%.
