The dust of the six states in Malaysia is settled, and the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional successfully defended the original snow, Penang, and Senmori regime.This three -to -three situation means that the overall political territory of the Malaysian Kingdom has not changed subversive changes. Chinese votes still tend to Pakatan Highlights, and Malay votes continue to dump towards the National Alliance.Although in terms of votes, the National League received 49.3%of the general votes, far exceeding the 36.1%of the Higong League and 13.4%of the Barisan Nasional, but considering that the Pakatan Harapan and BN have jointly joined forces, the acquisition rate of the unity government and the National League only has only the voter rateThere is a difference of 0.2 percentage points, which is basically similar to the layout after the 15th election.
Under this premise, extreme changes will not occur in the short term in the short term. In additionThere will be more movement.This is because the unity government led by the Chairman of the Justice Party is a three -pointer or close to the three -thirds of the three states, and they have 17 seats in these six states.The gap is defeated, such as the Most of the Meidan Garden in Selangor, the goose Stega and the Sungxi Gandis, only 30 votes, 58 votes and 167 votes.This slight difference makes them believe that they are defeated to the voting rate, not the national alliance.
Although the overall achievement does not seem to be very pessimistic, if the state selection results are opened and analyzed by the state and political parties, we can clearly notice that the green tide does have a trend of nearly one step.
First of all, in the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional combination, UMNO is the worst party in this state. The number of states of the campaign is the most (108 seats), but only 19 seats can be won.The 42 seats campaigned by Dengzhou were overwhelmed, and the winning rate was only 17.5%. The number one in the members of the three major alliances of the Pakatan Harapan, BN and the National League ranked second.There are only one seat in the seat, and the winning rate is only 2.8%).
However, the Democratic Party has not been able to win any seats in elections at all levels in the past five years. It is not optimistic in this state election, so it can achieve zero breakthroughs.UMNO is anxious to prove that it still receives the support of Malay voters, coupled with the party chairman of the vice -prime minister, Ahmad Zahi, and the aximal chairman of the Senzhou Yandou seat, Mohashan, to supervise the war.Galatin, a candidate for the Minister of Senzhou, was also elected at the top of the gourds he was running. Compared with the Democratic Party, UMNO seems to be the biggest loser at the bottom of this election.
Second, as the biggest enemy of UMNO, the Islamic Party is aggressive in the election. The results after the election also confirm that this momentum is not an illusion, because it won 106 seats in the 127 seats of the campaign, with a winning rate of 83.5% as high as 83.5%In addition to the Senzhou, the Iraqi Party won in the five states who were running for the election, and even achieved the excellent record of winning in the two states, so it was the biggest winner of this state election.In addition, in the two fortress states that Pakatana ruling, the Iraqi Party's seats in Selangor increased from a seat in 2018 to 10 seats, and Penang also increased from one seat to 7 seats, which means that the Iranian party's penetration power on the peninsula has deepened.
In addition, in terms of the number of seats alone, the national alliance swept 146 seats in the state selection, accounting for 64.6%of the 245 seats. On the contrary, the unity government only received 80 seats, accounting for 35.4%.Crossing hard.If the seats are split, the Iraqi party has increased by 36%compared to 2018, and the Turkistan Party has soared 233%.Of course, if on the Pu voting, the total voting rate of the unity of the government is still slightly higher than that of the National League, but the growth of the number of seats is still compared with a country that implements the "winner all" election system, and the political interests brought about by the election system are still better than the thanThe total voting rate is more direct and far -reaching.
Third, according to the tendency of voters voting, the average voting rate of this state election is 70%. If further split according to the racial structure, the voting rate of Malay, Chinese and Indian voters will be 70%, 65%and 69%.Among them, 73%of Malay voters chose to support the National Alliance. As for UMNO, the support rate in the Malay community has fallen to 26%.In addition, in all six states, the support rate of Malay in the National Alliance has increased. Snow, Penang, Mori, Ji, Dan, and Deng are 63%, 69%, 56%, 82%, 73%, and 71%, respectively.Compared with the 2022 election, the increase is between 60 and 20 percentage points.
indirectly leading to the conservative of Anhua policy
This also means that UMNO's efforts to fight for the Malays in recent years have declared failure. Its sphere of influence and representativeness in the Malay community are being swallowed by the National Alliance, especially the Iraqi Party.This situation also caused the effect of the unity government's expectation of 1+1 equal to 2, because the fading of UMNO forces also prompted the Pakatan Harapan except for the beautiful performance of the Democratic Party (97.9%of the victory), and other member parties, other member partiesThat is, the record of the Justice and the Integrity Party is not as good as expected, and the winning rate rate is only 45.8%and 25.8%, respectively.
The three situations that appear after the election of the Malaysian Six State elections will not directly impact the Anwar government in the short term, but it will bring long -term challenges to the united government.Because the Malaysian group's support for the unity government and UMNO will indirectly lead to the development of the Anwar government in terms of policy and delay some forward -looking policies and system reform promised in the 2022 election.Of course, as for the high degree of conservativeness, it depends on how much pressure will be given by Umno grassroots to the state election led by Ahmad Zahi.What is the tolerance.
This means that the greater the pressure on Ahmad Zahi, the greater the actions of the anti -Zahi faction to promote the party's competition, which also means that Umno has exerted greater pressure on the enlightenment of the Pakatan Harapan in the united government.Although UMNO has lost the support of most Malay people, it is still a facade that supports the unity government that will not ignore the rights of Malay people.In addition, Anwar did not want to see the division of Wuxing, and even Ahmad Zahi was forced to step down, because this result may cause Umno to re -examine the cooperation with the Pakatan Harapan, thereby increasing the risk of the unity government early.Therefore, the long -term probability of uniting the government has become more conservative.
The author is the journalist and political scholar of Raman University of the Malaysian current affairs
