On August 10, US President Biden Biden said at Utah's political fundraising activity that China's economic growth has slowed down, the unemployment rate remains high, and the population of retirement has exceeded the labor population.He is worried that this second largest economy in the world will become a "timing bomb" that may threaten other parts of the world.He also made up a sentence: China is "troubled" and "this is not wonderful, and he will do bad things when the bad guys are in the situation."
Biden also described China's "Belt and Road" initiative as "debt and noose", because participating countries must accept some terms to obtain funds.Since then, in addition to the "debt trap", there is another adjective to the Belt and Road in the Western vocabulary.China is not only a unique strategic opponent, but also a "bad guy".People still remembers that on June 20 this year, in a fundraising activity attending California, Biden said that Chinese President Xi Jinping was a "dictator".
Some people say that Biden is a bit dementia, so it is often incoherent and forgets diplomatic etiquette.However, some people say that Biden is a sophisticated diplomat and strategist, and is a tumbler in American politics. His provocative words are definitely not a word, but a heart.China seemed helpless for a while.But the so -called "one is so great, can it be?" This kind of embarrassing thing can be used on the state of etiquette!For strategic considerations, although Beijing swallowed her tolerance, it must have gritted their teeth secretly.
The United States is now a social liberalism, conservative eagle factions, and the relationship between reorganization with the allies since Bayeng came to power. It just happened to encounter Russia's invasion of Ukraine.China, two -sided operations, diplomacy and strategic deployment seem to be successful, so they are a bit confessed, and Xi Jinping has not been regarded as a matter of recovery.But it is dangerous to despise the opponent.This is reminiscent of the fables of "Han Lu Xun" in the war country.
The book says this: "Han Zi Lu, the dog of the world. East Guo, the cunning rabbit at home.Extremely, the dogs are abandoned, and the dogs are all died. "White words: Legend has it that the fastest dog running the world in ancient times was Han Zilu, and the fastest and cunning rabbit was Dong Guo.One day a Han Zi Lu chased Dong Guo, and ran five laps around the three mountains. Han Zilu still did not catch up with Dong Guo. As a result, both were exhausted.A farmer just passed by and easily picked up Han Zilu and Dong Guo.
The United States, a Hanzi Lu, is now proud of it, thinking that he is invincible.But the master's confrontation may be the most dangerous mentality.A abandonment of realism in the Kissinger era, returning to ideological leading diplomacy, believes that American democracy can conquer the world, and everything can be resolved by the strong force of the United States. Poor soldiers are also extremely dangerous.Biden not only inherited Trump's policies for China, but also further strengthened the siege, and introduced various restrictions to try to combat China's development, and to put Dongguo's death.However, the Eagle of Washington still felt that Biden did not do enough.
The American Foreign Affairs Magazine published an article by two scholars of the think tank "American Compass" and Gabriela Rodrigez, Gabriela Rodrigez, two scholars, believed that they believed that they believed that they believed that they believed that they believed that they believed thatRisk -free alone is not enough.They claim that through investment and supply chains to corrode the free markets and systems of the United States, the United States should be completely decoupled with it, just like dealing with Russia, revoke China's most beneficial country treatment, and impose tariffs on China's imported goods.At the same time, the United States must also establish a wider partnership with allies with the same values.To put it simply, it is enough to China and cannot be soft.This is completely the thinking of Han Zilu.
The world view of the American eagle, based on the powerful military power and tanks of the United States, is also based on the stereotypes of the so -called autocratic system.Some scholars believe that the Chinese economy has now suffered from "Economic Long Covid". The government has strong intervention, the economy has lost its vitality, and the economic miracle has reached the end.In contrast, the United States has become a greener ranch, which gives the United States an excellent opportunity to change strategies in the United States. Instead of curbing China, it is better to make better choices, let Xi Jin Pingxian work, and make the economy.Isn't it more time -saving and labor -intensive?
In short, from the perspective of Han Zilu in the United States, China, this Dong Guoji is already endless, can catch it, in the words of Biden's words, the timing bomb is about to explode.But if we read the book of The Fourty Turning, it may feel that the "time bomb" of the United States is about to explode, although the author of this book uses another metaphor.
The fourth turning was published in 1997. The two authors William Strauss and Neil Howe proposed the theory of four seasons of the development of British and American history. About 80 years of cycle, there are spring and summer in each reincarnation.The four turns in autumn and winter, or are rebirth, awakening, decomposition and crisis (winter), covering about four generations.From the end of the Middle Ages (1435) to the end of World War II, a total of six turns have been experienced. Since 1946, it has entered the seventh turn. This turning point is now entering the winter (that is, the crisis phase).
In 2007, Strauss died.But Hawie continued the research of the two and published the fourth turning (The Fourth Turning Is Here).The United States is currently in the fourth turning, and this stage began in the world financial crisis in 2008.Since then, Trump was elected president in 2016, and the crown disease suddenly occurred in 2020. With the increasing population of populism, the fighting of political parties, lack of trust, government failure, etc., it was a signs of the crisis.It is no wonder that some Chinese believe that China is rising, and the United States Han Zi Lu is falling and is out of breath.This is the so -called Dongshengluo.
But in the opinion of the author of this book, this is just the cycle of spring to autumn, winter and spring.Since winter is here, will spring be far away?It seems that more and more Americans believe in the four seasons, because most of the "inferences" of this winter seem to be fulfilled.Some Chinese read this book, and they may feel that the United States has become a "timing bomb."
Then who is a "timing bomb", it seems that no one has said it yet.From the perspective of outsiders of our bureau, first of all, both countries have their own serious internal problems that need to be resolved.These problems such as weak economic, high unemployment rates, slumped investment, racial contradictions, gaps between the rich and the poor, political parties, social tear, etc. are not well dealt with "time bombs".
Secondly, who has superior systems, do not have to brag about self -proclaiming, or slander each other at all, not to be intertwined, or to change the system of others.Because the system is superior or not, only time can be proved.Before the time has not made a ruling, what the two sides should do is not to do the dragon fighting tiger that must be defeated, or creating more weapons with more lethality.The complex and multi -end political, economic, and social issues use valuable resources to improve people's lives.
Third, if the United States and China ignore everything, continue to fight, and chase like Han Zilu and Dong Guozheng in the fable, and they will inevitably lose both.But in the fable, farmers have picked up two dead goods, as if the fisherman said by another fable, but the world in reality none of the farmers and fishermen.The United States and China, which are defeated, will also be harmed throughout the world order and economy.
The author is a former journalist, a former member of the Congress
