Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
Ukraine has launched a counterattack for more than two months.In addition to drones attacking Moscow and drones to attack the Black Sea and Russian ships, there are only two reference frameworks that people use to understand the counterattack situation.One is the "Kharkiv Model" in September last year, and the second is the "Kherson model" from August to November last year.
The so -called "Halkov model" is that Ukraine quickly defeats the Russian military defense and recovered thousands of kilometers within a few days.The so -called "Hermuson model" is the war of consumption with the defendant through the front line, and then cooperate with the attack on the enemy's back -duty supplies. In the end, the opponent's resistance ability, so retreat on its own, just as the Russian army last November last yearIt decided to withdraw its only base on the west coast of Dnieper River.
Except for the early June 4 counterattack or the breakthrough attempts on July 26, for more than two months, the front line of Ukraine has not found a breakthrough space.Foot and Western training do not meet the needs of Ukraine, and the mainstream analysis of NATO countries says that this is the insufficient training of the Ukraine and failed to make a joint military operation.
Although the analysis of the reasons for the Ukraine's counterattacks is not as good as expected, the basic consensus of people is that Ukraine's counterattack will not be the repeat of the "Halkov model", but the unpredictable "He Hyphus".Elson Model ".Some Western analysts that show that the Ukrainian army's lack of training believes that the current outlet allows the Ukrainian army to counterattack in a way they know instead of NATO guidance, even if this takes longer.
The thinking framework of this "Halkov model" and "Hermuson model" is of course simplified to the battlefield situation.Although analyzing the world must not be inseparable from simplified models, simplifications that are not suitable may cause us to ignore the key elements that have not considered the model.
Today, this key element comes from Halkov in Northeast Ukraine and Lugansk.When people's attention focuses on the three -line counterattack of the Ukraine of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, the Russian army greatly strengthened the offensive at the front line of Lugusk and was close to last year.In September, Ukraine's key city Kupiansk, a key city that recruited Halkov.
By August 9th, the city government of Kippyandsk announced that it was preparing the evacuation plan for the local civilians. It is expected that more than 11,000 people, including 600 children, need to withdraw.Although in March of this year, under Russia's continuous bombardment, Kippizusk also called on civilians to withdraw to a safer place, but the situation at this moment is not the same -Kippizusk has been the Russian army since the end of last year last year.One of the goals promoted in the West, but its progress is extremely slow and can be ignored. However, according to the recent news of Ukraine, the Russian army has deployed 100,000 tanks, more than 900 tanks, 555 artillery, and 555 artillery in mid -July this year.The 370 self -running cannon has also made significant progress. Now its closest front line is only a few kilometers.
Even though military analysts generally believe that the offensive against Kippyusk is only a measure that the Russian army wants to scattered in the southern and southeast of the U -military attention, but we cannot rule out that this is actually Putin's attempt to defeat Ukraine's counterattack in one fell swoop.War and strategic operations.
Although material conditions are extremely critical to the victory and defeat of the war, psychology is also an important factor in determining strategy -otherwise, Russia and Ukraine will not be in Bakmut (Bahkmut) Thousands of soldiers have been fighting for tens of thousands of soldiers to this day (press: Western analysis means that Ukraine has not counterattacked at this moment, one of the major reasons is that they have not abandoned Bach Murut in time).
At present, when Zeelianzki has to admit that the Ukraine counterattack is slower than expected, the Ukrainian soldiers have shakenDissatisfied with the results of the battle and accusations with each other.
If you can only advance slowly in Ukraine, the Russian army has made a breakthrough in the front line of Halkov.Oskil River can even quickly enter into Ukraine's most proud "Halkov" battle, I am afraid that Ukraine's current hot resistance and determination will be hit by catastrophic.Ukraine's counterattack is likely to lose on psychological factors.
Just as the main force of the Russian army in September last year was dealing with the Ukraine counterattack in the south. At this moment, the Urpical counterattack was also concentrated in the south. The front line of Halkov could be regarded as a relatively weak point on the Ukraine's defense line.Essence
In this regard, Ukraine must also face a practical dilemma.If the Southern Army is transferred to Halkov's battle, this is likely to give up the only time to counterattack in the next two or three months; if the original counterattack deployment in the south continues, Halkov's break will not only let UkraineLosing a battle may also cause Ukraine to lose the entire war.
This shows that this is indeed a potential "fatal blow" planned by Putin.
