Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
The International Credit Institution Institution Suddenly, August 2 suddenly reduced the US debt letter rating, etc., removed the United States' consistent 3A top letter -of -letter evaluation, and lowered to AA+. In addition to shocking the global financial market, it also accidentally triggered the US Treasury Secretary.And the crowdsmist's lips and tongue battles.
The current US Treasury Secretary Yellen strongly responded for the first time, criticizing the "arbitrary" and "cited information for out of date."Yellen has accused Fitch that has not considered the US economic toughness, low unemployment, decreased inflation, continuous growth and innovation.Sammes, a former US Treasury Secretary and currently a professor at Harvard University, said that despite the reason that there is reason to worry about the long -term trajectory of the US deficit, the US debt repayment capacity is unquestionable.
However, the two Paulson and Gatener, who also served as US Treasury Secretary, agreed with Fitch.Paulson, who served as Treasurer during the Bush administration, pointed out in an interview that "the US's fiscal trajectory is indeed worrying. The United States is a wealthy country. We must take action in the next few years to change the fiscal trajectory." Bao Sen'sGatner, who was successor and Obama, also said that "the necessary actions must be taken before the problem becomes tricky."
The Ford of the focus of public opinion stated that the reduction of US debt -based evaluations, which reflect the worsening of the United States in the next three years, the huge government in the government, and continuously expanding.Before Fitch, another letter of critics, S & P (SP), had reduced the US letter rating from AAA to AA+in 2011. At present, only Moody's Sini agencies remain in the three major letter rating agencies still maintaining the American Credit Rating in AAA.
Three credit evaluation agencies issue credit assessment and evaluation on bonds of governments and enterprises in various countries and enterprises, so that investors have referenceThe selection of information is different, which makes it difficult to avoid argument.However, it has been the world's largest economy for a long time, and the issuance of Treasury bonds has ranked first in the world. The debt letter evaluation has always been AAA -level United States. In just ten years, two of the three institutions have been.The rating has been reduced, and naturally attracted attention.However, in addition to the professional perspective of credit rating, people observe from some more macro perspectives, and they cannot make some auxiliary references.
Unlike bonds issued by general enterprises, the quality and debt capacity of a country in one country are relatedThe situation is related to fortune.The United States' international status has continued to rise since World War II. With the strength of the comprehensive national strength of the United States, and the condition of the US dollar as a high -quality international currency, no one will doubt the debt letter or debt capacity of the United States.However, the concept of the "debt limit" established by the U.S. Congress in 1917 for the first time in 1917 was repeatedly raised under the habit of ignoring financial discipline. Since the 1960s, the cumulative upper limit of debt has been increased by more than 70 times.The United States has always been regarded as the only overlord in the world, and of course it is not a problem.The problem is that after the end of the last century at the end of the last century, it changed its change in the new century.The two anti -terrorism war beaten the United States and the debt was high. In 2008, it was hit by the Century Financial Tsunami in 2008. It has to be quantitatively loose, so that the debt of the US government has continued to rise rapidly, accounting for about 35%of the GDP in the 1980s.Rising to 58%in 2000, soaring to the current 120%of 2023.
It is even more noteworthy that during this period, China, which has always been inconspicuous, began to rise rapidly. Not only did the economic and comprehensive strength come to the United States, but also made the relationship between the two countries tense. For this reason, from Trump to worship to worship.The various sanctions and decoupling adopted by Deng have also caused harm to the US's own economy.At the same time, we must also see that for various reasons, in recent years, there has been a wave of unprecedented "going to the US dollar" in recent years. There is no doubt that in the long run, it will also constitute potentially on the US debt letter.The adverse effects.
Looking deeper, as well as Fitch, in the past 20 years, the national governance capabilities of the United States have been significantly declining. This will not only weaken the market's confidence in US fiscal management, but this trend will further deteriorate the United StatesGovernment's financial quality.From this perspective, the S & P and Fitch's decline in US debt letters have caused a lot of controversy, but maybe these two believers are necessary to maintain their own credit.Will Moody's follow -up, or when to follow up.
