Although the selection of the six states of Malaysia is only the election of the state level, the central leaders of the party factions have ended, and some have personally became candidates, such as the Minister of Defense and the UMNO Acting Chairman Hashan, and the Minister of Communications and democratic actions.The secretary -general of the party, Lu Zhaofu, all played in the respective hometown of Morilan; the Prime Minister Anhua and the heavyweight leaders of the opposition party were supporting the selection.This reflects a certain extent that the state election meeting has a significant impact on the Malaysian Federation and the overall politics.
Hadi, chairman of the Islamic Party in the wild, recently pointed out publicly that if the party led by the party's victory in the state in the state, it will not inevitably affect the replacement of the federal government.This is of course the exaggeration of Haikou during the campaign to inspire the morale of the national alliance, but it also confirms that all walks of life speculate that the party's political ambitions should be governed by the central government.
Before the parliament of these six states was dissolved, the National League and the Pakatan Harapan ruling three states.Most of the circles believe that there are no suspense in the three states of Jilandan, Ding Jianu, and Kedah, and may even win all or almost all state seats.As for the Pakatan Harapan, there is only a high chance of winning in Penang. Other Selangor and Semimiland states are currently in five or five waves.
Because the Pakatan Harapan was in power with the absolute advantage of more than two -thirds of the state seats before, even if the national alliance did not win the ruling power, as long as the Greek League's seat advantage is broken, it can be claimed thatFor victory.Even though the national alliance only won the Selangor or Samililan with a micro -poor, four or two or five to one, the national alliance was a beautiful victory.If even Penang, which is regarded as the Pakatan Harapan, is won by the National League, of course, the national alliance will win.
The unity government led by Anwar currently claims to have two -thirds of the administrative advantages in Congress. On the surface, it is quite stable. Under the blessing of restricting the replacement of the party's replacement of the party, theoreticallyThe five -year term is completed.However, more than three years ago, the Pakatan Harapan government led by Mahathir also had more than two -thirds of seats in Congress, but fell down after the setting of Sheraton's coup.In the same year, at that time, the Minxing Party and the Friendship Party also governed Sabah with more than two -thirds of the state seats, but more than a dozen states of State members were collectively inverted overnight, resulting in the state government fell.
If the current state selection results are maintained three to three, and the national alliance fails to break the advantages of two -thirds of the two -thirds of the State State in the Pakatan Harapan, the unity government should maintain it.If the Pakatan Harapan can break up the advantages of the National League in the Gendrone and even the two -thirds of the state seats, the Anwar and the unity government will be as powerful as the rainbow, resolve the so -called green tide dominated by the Iraqi Party, and can be more axis to carry out each of them.Item reform.
If the result of the selection of the state is a great victory of the National Alliance, it is declared that the members of the Parliament who support Anhua will be appointed.
These members are most likely to come from the UMNO non -mainstream factions that are eager to move, or they may also come from Anwar's Justice Party.If they are accused of violating the instructions of the affiliated party to support Anwar, they are expelled from the party, and the reflection job is not noticeable, allowing them to continue to maintain a seat.As long as there is enough parliamentarians to have a heart and publicly state, even if the Congress is not held to vote for trust, Anwar may still be stepped down.
This is why the government attaches great importance to state election.Especially Anwar, in the past few weeks, go to the platform to help the election.In the last election, Anwar's daughter, Nu Lulu, was cold and failed to keep Anwar's Penang Parliament constituency for many years. It shows that even in Penang, which has been in power for many years in Pakatan Higa, the green tide is unstoppable.If the Pakatan Harapan loses Penang's ruling power or loses a large number of seats, Anwar will have no face, and the political and ambitious family who are eager to move will wait for the opportunity.Therefore, Anwar's aid schedule is too busy, and even important diplomatic activities have been moved to Penang to reduce the hard work of the boat and car and strive for more time to touch the voters.After a few weeks after the election, the undercurrents in politics may be the meat in this round of states.
The author is the chief consultant of the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute) senior researcher Malaysia Pacific Research Center
