Source: Voice of Germany

Author: Zhan Weik

2024 Taiwan elections for a few half a year, Ke Wenzhe, Hou Youyi, Guo Taiming, and their supporters have made a group. The DPP candidate Lai Qingde, who should have been one -to -three, seems to be able to watch the three of them fight each other in time.The media even said that it was "elected", but the actual situation may not be the case.

----

The latest polls pointed out that the DPP presidential candidate Lai Qingde's support leads Ke Wenzhe and Hou Youyi of the Kuomintang, but if Guo Taiming, who has not explicitly expressed his statement, "runs to the end"Change.

The poll made by the ETtoday poll shows that Lai Qingde's support is 33.4%, Ke Wenzhe is 21.6%, Hou Youyi is 21%, and Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai Group, is 16.4%.One of the special polls is to analyze that if Guo Taiming insists on the independent election to the end, Ke Wenzhe is most affected. Ke's support will be reduced by 7.2%, Lai Qingde decreases by 2.2%, and Hou Youyi will decrease by 3.3%.

Although the number of poll numbers is announced every time, all parties will say "polls change every day, reference to reference" or "poll numbers will not affect the pace of campaign".However, polls seem to be far from actual.

For example, the Kuomintang has recently strengthened the firepower. The object of the bombardment is Ke Wenzhe and Guo Taiming. They criticized Ke Wenzhe's ability to be unable to have the ability, and even launched a "Ke Wenzhe clause" that strictly forbid the party legislators candidates for non -Nationalist Party.The Kuomintang said that it was "words and no faith." It was said that when Guo Taiming was primary in the Kuomintang Party, he said that he would support the Kuomintang nominated candidate, but turned his face and did not recognize it.

Although Guo Taiming seems to have no political party's aid, he still has frequent actions.Voting; In addition to the various policies for making the topic for campaign and making the Democratic Progressive Party, it is also said that many KMT candidates are looking for him to help the election. It may not be really bad to listen to the Kuomintang's ears.

The biggest contradiction between the three people of Ke Wenzhe, Hou Youyi, and Guo Taiming is that all three people want to be the president, refuse to flex the vice president, and the more radical supporters are very fierce.I don't accept anyone, and I have spoken everything.

Kuomintang supporters described Ke Wenzhe as "digging the Kuomintang's walls" and criticizing if the election cannot be "removed from the DPP" next year, Guo Taiming will bear the biggest responsibility; Ke Wenzhe's fans say that Hou Youyi and Guo Taiming's poll have always lost.To Ke Wenzhe, the two should not be disrupted, and they should obey the "non -Green Alliance" led by Ke Wenzhe; Guo Taiming supporters described that Hou Youyi or Ke Wenzhe did not have the "governing the country" and could not be compared with Guo Taiming.

Ke, Hou, and Guo have the deep contradictions. Although the supporters are anxious, they have more firmly supported the candidates they like, which is also reflected in the number of polls.The aforementioned polls pointed out that the proportion of iron tickets was 92.4%, Ke Wenzhe was 74.3%, Hou Youyi was 82.8%, and Guo Taiming 65.2%.Judging from the current stage, whether it is Ke Wenzhe, Hou Youyi or Guo Taiming, they can't dig the supporters of Lai Qingde. If the three people want to fight for votes, they can only start with each other.If you push it carefully, your own votes are most likely to leave other candidates. Ke Wenzhe and Guo Taiming. The voters of the two are high, and the contradictions may be added with one more layer.

Maybe some people think that Ke Wenzhe, Hou Youyi, Guo Taiming, and their supporters have made a group. The DPP candidate Lai Qingde should have been seen.Dou, some media even said that they were "elected", and the actual situation may not be the case.

The voting date is getting closer and closer, but there are still a few months, and no one knows what emergency situations will happen in the middle.Lai Qingde's support in young people is still unsatisfactory, and the survey results of different polls have shown that his support is between 33%and 35%, and only the second highest Ke Wenzhe is about 11%.The Kuomintang and Guo Taiming's supporters each took 5%(if possible).

In addition, the proportion of dissatisfaction with the DPP is much higher than the last presidential election.A Democratic Progressive Party told me that now "it is even more unsatisfactory." Although the proportion of iron tickets for the DPP Lai Qingde is high, it is still step by step, because the supporters will not vote for some reason, the local election in 2022 is the local election is the local election is the local election is the local election is the local election is the local election is the local election is the local election.In this way, the DPP's defeat is "unforgettable" for supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party and "remembers."

Besides, no matter which candidate, the closer to the voting date, the more likely to be blamed and enlarged. In this regard, Lai Qingde may be more nervous than the other three people, because he is not only the Vice President, but also the Public ProgressParty Chairman; the legislator election of the voting on the same day next year, the DPP will also face the turbulent situation. If there is a difference, Lai Qingde, who is the chairman of the party, will not blame it, and the election will follow.

Now we have to observe what kind of tricks: Lai Qingde, Ke Wenzhe, Hou Youyi, and Guo Taiming will be paved for the victory of the next election for next year.The route of the line is unclear. If the voters do not know that they are going to bring Taiwan there, and they can't make voters reassuring, I am afraid that they can't win next year's elections?