Pryigon's strange coup and Wagner's private military group disbanded, bringing new changes to the Ukrainian front.
No one really understands the purpose of Porigon's coup. This is a rebellion that mainly watched on social media, which shows that the truth to the audience is still less.However, thousands of mercenaries with rich experience in military and special forces cannot be idle for a long time; it also proves that as long as they exist near sensitive border areas, they are sufficient to pose a certain threat.
Since last week, a number of teams organized by the Russian private military entity Wagner opened into Beros, and Wagner members trained the White Rose in a military training ground near the Polish border.Some analysts believe that the Wagner Corps moved to Beros, on the surface, trained the Belarusian army, which was actually part of the Putin's opening up of the new front strategy in the Ukrainian war.This has brought great instability and danger to the surrounding neighboring countries, and also pose a serious threat to NATO East Wing.
With the emergence of mercenaries, Russia's information war is becoming more and more active.Russian leader Putin has expressed some thoughts several times. He believes that Poland is trying to occupy western Ukraine on the grounds of sending troops, and shouting that Poland "don't forget that the territory in the west is Stalin's gift."Russia and Beros even suggested that Putin use the mercenaries of the Wagner Group to mix the Poland or Lithuania.At the same time, President Lokashenko also reported to Putin that Wagner's mercenaries were willing to go to the Polish capital Warsaw and the city of Southeast Cities, Gashuv (the main base in the West in the West) to "travel".
There is a saying in Poland: "There is a lot of cows moaning and less milk", which means that the more you say, the less you do.Today, Pricig's hiring mercenaries obviously have no heavy equipment and capabilities, occupying this dangerous terrain of lakes and hills. However, near the SUWALKI Corridor in NATO countriesThousands of unknown professional soldiers, why did they choose to come here?What tasks have been assigned?This does make NATO and EU member states very disturbed.
The Suvauki Corridor is located in the northeast of Poland and is about 100 kilometers wide.On the one hand, this is the only land connection between Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and other EU member states.On the other hand, this is the narrow area of isolation of Russia's Galine -Giller flying land and Bairos.From a strategic perspective, if Russia can control the area, it will have a dual advantage, that is, to open up land channels with Kalinrad, and cut off the land connection between Poland and three Baltic countries.This may be a strategic map drawn by their "Talking on the Paper".
In fact, Russia and White Ross are not likely to attack NATO members directly. However, if Russia uses Wagner to hire a mercenary to attack Poland or Lithuania, similar actions will have certain possibilities.Because Wagner is not affiliated with Moscow officials, officials say they are anarchy for mercenaries, and Russia has long denied participation in the Ukrainian war and controlled the so -called "little green man" (compile: refers to the secret armed personnel sent by Russia).In this way, Russia can put pressure on Poland and Lithuania while pretending not to be their own.
At present, Warsaw has decided to establish a new military forces in the region, including the deployment of newly purchased South Korean tanks to strengthen Poland's military existence in the Suvawu base area.At the same time, Poland and Lithuania are considering closing the possibility of closing the border with the White Ross. Both countries have even built walls in border areas that borders Beros and Russia, to avoid information warfare and mixed conflicts initiated by Russia and Beros.
The benefits of Russia are obvious, but what does Beros get?It should be the militaryization of NATO member states for the Eastern border. It provides more reasons to adopt a tough internal policy and further reconcile with Russia for the Lukashenke regime.
It must be pointed out that there is another possibility that the purpose of the Pricig's mercenaries in the White Ross is not to fight the NATO or Ukrainian army, but was initiated and implemented by Moscow and Minsk.Thousands of illegal immigrants from Africa and the Middle East were sent to the border between Poland and Lithuania.In recent years, hundreds of visa -free people brought by Baillo every day, trying to cross the EU border.Many of them were stopped by newly built isolation walls and thousands of Polish soldiers and border guards, but many people successfully crossed illegally.
White Ross's public security forces participated in the activities of cross -border population smuggling.The establishment and existence of the Wagner Group are for money.According to sources, the price of transferring a person into Poland is about $ 10,000 (about S $ 13,300), which may be the secret of Lukashenko who is willing to accept Wagner's mercenaries in territory.
Author Piotr Karpiński is Polish
Study Chinese at Warsaw University and Beijing Normal University
Engage in Chinese translation
