Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao Agency Review
International rating agency Fitch will reduce the US credit rating from the highest AAA to AA+.This is the second time that the United States has lost the S & P's highest rating in 2011 and has been downgraded by one of the three international rating agencies.Although Fitch's decision has set off some ripples in the global market, American economists and analysts are generally improper.EssenceWashington has become a habit of "lift debt days". Caichi and debt are as big as snowballs. The disputes between the two parties have intensified, resulting in the debt -limited crisis.There is no problem in the reasoning of the relegation proposed by Fitch, but the US financial hegemony and the US dollar hegemony exist in one day, and Washington can rely on printing money to repay debts to avoid breach of contract.The party was not over one day, and everyone continued to dance.
Treat the relegation of US economists after 12 years
Earlier this year, the US federal government debt exceeded $ 31 trillion ($ 41 trillion), reaching the upper limit of debt again. If the Democratic Republican parties did not reach an agreement in early June, the US debt defaults.In the context of the rating agency Fitch, the United States was included in the negative observation list in May this year, which means that it is possible to lose the highest sovereign credit rating.As the negotiations between the two -party debt limits were as negotiated before the default line, all parties thought that things came to an end. Unexpectedly, Fitch still announced this week that the United States would be reduced to AA+.
Fitch, Standard & Poore and Moody's are regarded as three international rating agencies.Until 2011, the United States had been given the highest credit level by three major institutions. The first relegation to the United States was Standard Purcell, and the background was also debt -limited negotiations.Although the Obama government at that time reached an agreement with the Republican Parliament at the last moment, S & P pays attention to long -term political risks. It has downgraded the United States and the global market is shocking.After 12 years, this time the United States was relegated again. Whether the market or the response of American economists, there were quite a lot from that year.
Fitch lowers US credit rating, debt expansion and political issues are still the main causes. Although the global stock market is generally under pressure yesterday, the decline in the opening of the US stock market is not very large.Generally speaking, a national sovereign credit rating declines, which will push the cost of lending, but the 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States will not rise and fall yesterday. Investors are worried about market fluctuations and seek to avoid wind ports, which will cause US debt prices to rise.In addition to the relegation of the White House's "disagreement", even the Nobel Prize winner Cruman and former Treasury Secretary Summers and other famous American economists and Wall Street analysts have also criticized Fitch's decision to decide "ridiculous".In contrast, although the S & P decision was controversial at that time, the response did not have such a side.
The United States was downgraded 12 years ago. It coincides with the continuous European debt crisis and the memory of financial tsunami is still fresh. In addition, there is no way to relegate before, and the market psychological impact must be greater.On the other hand, this year's US stocks have continued to rise, repeated high high, and the overall economic performance is better than many developed economies. Fitch has made fierce controversy this time, but it is not surprising.It is not targeted.
The two parties in the United States are not allowed to be, and the party fascination has intensified. In the wild side, the opposition always puts on the appearance of concern to financial discipline, and has criticized the White House to spend money. Once you come to power, you will immediately change your face.EssenceThe two parties reached an agreement on the two parties in June this year and agreed to suspend the upper limit of the debt until January 2025. It means that the current Bayeng government has no debt -free worries, but as well as Fitch said, in the past 20 years, the US government's financial and debt governance standards have beenIt has been worsening, and the debt limit problem has been repeatedly in a deadlock. It is always resolved at the last moment. In addition, the government lacks the medium -term fiscal framework. It is expected that there will be no substantial financial rectification measures before the election of November next year.In addition, the current global economy is still fragile, and Washington continues to spend money like flowing water. The tax reduction measures launched by former President Trump in 2017 will end in 2025. Fitch is estimatedIn the next three years, the US fiscal situation has changed, and the proportion of government deficits will rise from 3.7%last year to 6.3%to 6.9%, not without persuasive.
Mercy debt is difficult to pay attention to the gray rhino black swan
The US government debt has continued to expand rapidly, and the interest mouth has risen significantly in recent years. The interest to be paid each year alone will be trillions of dollars. Fitch is estimated that US government debt accounts for GDP ratio.From the median of 39.3%of the AAA rating economy, from this perspective, the US credit rating is lowered by justice and reasonable approach.Of course, on the possibility of debt defaults, assuming that the existing international political and economic structure is roughly unchanged, unless the two -party politicians choose to destruct themselves, the probability of the United States in the future of debt defaults is indeed minimal, because the United States can rely on silver printing paper to print silver paper paperSh hand of debt repayment.
During the debt -limited negotiations at the beginning of this year, Treasury Secretary Yellen repeatedly stated that once the United States defaults, the US dollar will endanger the status of the world reserve currency.Any debt, because we are always reliable to print banknote printing, so the risk of breach of contract is zero. "Generally, national credit rating has declined, and national bonds will be sold, but people buy US debt because of credit rating. As long as the US financial hegemony and the US dollar hegemony are maintained one day, U.S. debt is still the safest and most liquid asset.After the financial tsunami, the US quantitatively loose money printing to support the economy. In recent years, in order to combat hostile countries and "weapons", many countries have been more alert to the US dollar assets, but the market has no substitutes, and only a large number of US debt is continued.
The world has not been changed for a century. As the world's most important foreign exchange reserves currency, the proportion of the US dollar has undoubtedly declined in recent years.It cannot be achieved overnight. From quantitative change to qualitative changes, it may depend on some unpredictable black swan incidents.But having said that, the current economic model of "debt -raising" in the United States is unsustainable in the long run. Many experts are worried that the "gray rhinos" will appear sooner or later, destroying this flashy party, but the music has not stopped for a day.The rhino "" has not yet arrived, everyone continues to carnival, and it happens when nothing happens.Fitch lowers the US credit rating again is another warning. The question is how many people will listen to it.
