Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
The current economic situation in mainland China does face rare difficulties.The decline in exports and imports in June further expanded, and the total value of imports and exports fell by 10.1%. Compared with the same period last year, the CPI was flat, and the PPI decreased by 5.4%year -on -year, reflecting the economic downturn, and increased whether it would enter the shrinkage.In addition, the employment situation is also quite severe, and the unemployment rate of youth is as high as 21.3%in June.It can be seen that China's current economic difficulties are facing almost every field such as production, employment to trade, and prices. It is not an exaggeration to say that this may be the only for more than 40 years of reform and opening up.
The easiest reason to see is naturally related to the two special situations in the inside and outside.One is the impact and damage caused by various measures adopted in the past three years to prevent control and control; the second is the US -China economic war that has been prosperous since 2018.These two situations have caused a heavy blow to the Chinese economy. Although the former is recovering, it takes time; the latter is still continuing or even intensified, and it is full of high uncertainty.
But this is just an observation of appearance. In deep perspective, China's current economic difficulties have also been the result of long -term misunderstandings in three major misunderstandings.The so -called "misunderstanding" means that the policy that felt very correct at that time had serious errors. It was only not inspecting at the time. It was not until later that it was wrong, it had paid expensive price.
The first is the "real estate economy misunderstanding", which regards real estate as a pillar industry that drives the economy. This has indeed contributed to production, employment, and taxation in the short period.EssenceThis misunderstanding is not corrected until the official official made "the house is used for living, not used to speculate" after the correct positioning, but the "balance sheet" caused by the sequelae requires considerable time to repair it. This process must be necessarily.Hard.
The second is the "Local Debt Economy Misunderstanding".In order to promote the local economy, under the restrictions of the lack of "fiscal discipline", the local governments raced the financial resources through debt issuance and combined with the original wrong land economy.At the time, the debt issuance was also on the day. At present, the motivation of the local economy has finally turned off. The local government not only has financial constraints, but the civil servants have been forced to reduce their salary. The scale of local debt accumulated for a long time has also laid huge hidden worries for financial stability.
The third is the "misunderstanding of property rights reform".Reform and opening up in 1979, including two major pieces of price reform and property rights reform.After decades, the price reform has been done well, but the reform of property rights is far from being in place.Before 1978, all enterprises were public state -owned, which seriously restrained productivity and reduced efficiency. Beginning in 1979, on the one hand, it was open and allowed to appear (including individual households, private enterprises and foreign enterprises).This is the so -called "mixed ownership".This is correct in the generosity of reform. For decades, Chinese private enterprises have made great contributions in exporting foreign exchange, employment, and taxation, far exceeding state -owned enterprises.However, the development of state -owned enterprises in social development has shouldered many tasks that are difficult to undertake by private enterprises, such as arms industry, infrastructure construction, social poverty alleviation, etc. Therefore, this mixed ownership with Chinese characteristics is desirable in terms of concept or operation.The problem lies in the influence of the educational education of the extremely left. It has always failed to completely liberate the private enterprises and the private economy.It is also often faced with the uncertainty of the policy. After a long time, it is naturally unbearable.
The current dilemma of China's economy, in addition to the epidemic effects with the US -China confrontation, is a large extent that these three deep -seated problems have accumulated for a long time.Opportunity, especially the part of the private economy.The opinions of the State Council's recent release on promoting the development and growth of the private economy have aroused great attention and expectations from all parties, which is not surprising.It is just a document of similar themes. Since 2005, there have been more than five times. Why many issues have not been resolved and need to be released again and again. This is probably a deeper issue that needs to be explored.
In a word, the Chinese economy does face considerable difficulties, but the prospects are not dim, because there are still many potential reform dividends.
