Since the election in Taiwan, the people and founder Ke Wenzhe have become the most striking stars.The polls in the past two months show that Ke Wenzhe continues to rank second and gradually pulls away the gap with the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi.Although the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde still ranks first, it has obviously felt the urgency of competition.The DPP also shifted the goal from the Kuomintang to Ke Wenzhe, trying to maintain the "one, big and two small" polls.This article aims to analyze the success of Ke Wenzhe and the people's party, as well as the challenges they are currently facing, hoping to help understand the new changes in Taiwan's politics.
Ke Wenzhe is so popular. The author believes that there are four main factors: First of all, Taiwan's political territory is experiencing generations to replace generations, and the younger generation has new expectations and needs for politics.Secondly, the People's Party adopted a unique propaganda method to make them unique in the minds of voters.Third, Ke Wenzhe himself has a unique personality characteristics and attracts a large number of supporters.In the end, the Kuomintang encountered difficulties in the party's transformation, and also provided external support for the rise of the people's party.
The generation of voters' structure is replaced
The results of the local elections at the end of last year showed that the DPP may be or lost the support of young voters.Regarding this issue, the author made a specific analysis in the Comment on December 3, the Jiuhe Nine Elections of Taiwan on December 3, last year, and I won't go into details here.However, many observers still adhere to the old model of the DPP for the DPP, and have not paid attention to this structural change as soon as possible.The actual situation is that since the election campaign, in the age of 40, Ke Wenzhe's support rate has remained stable at about 40 %, and Lai Qingde's support rate is generally only about 30 %.As the age of voters decreases, Ke Wenzhe's support rate is still growing.
Since the Taipei Mayor's election in 2014, "beyond blue and green" has always been the label of Ke Wenzhe. He emphasized that it is the difference between the two parties in ideology.However, this election is different: the difference between the people and the blue and green parties is not the ideology, but the age structure of voters.Compared with his parents, Taiwan ’s new generation of voters do not have fierce confrontation and division on issues such as identity and cross -strait positioning. Instead, they pay attention to the interests of this generation and hope to achieve these demands through elections.Therefore, internal affairs issues such as judicial injustice, corruption, high house prices, and low education returns are more likely to become the focus of the election.These issues are exactly the burdens and coexistence left by the long -term governance of the Blue and Green Party, but they provide Ke Wenzhe, a amateur, to play an advantage.
Publicity method with time
On the current major online platforms, Ke Wenzhe's performance far exceeds Lai Qingde and Hou Youyi. The number of channels and videos of the channels of channels is almost a few times or even a dozen times.This is mainly due to the people's party's propaganda methods, which is the essence of short video marketing: the video length is controlled within 10 minutes, even as short as two or three minutes.There are no deliberate scripts and exquisite arrangements, most of which are the on -site discussions of Ke Wenzhe. A event can create many fragments.In terms of content, it is not restricted to the overlapping between fragments, but repeatedly bombard the social network of young people in multiple angles to convey core information.
This propaganda method is very different from the blue -green tradition.Especially the DPP, it is accustomed to handing the topic to the titles of online anchors and traditional media, and let them "bring the wind", that is, the popularity of the wing to form a storm of public opinion in a short period of time and create social hotspots.The advantage of this approach is that once the propaganda is biased and the fire occurs, these influencers and famous mouths are an excellent blocking device to avoid candidates from igniting the fire.However, the disadvantage is that the same temperature layer will gather around a specific side wing to form information cocoons.When this propaganda method is overly used, the spread of information will lose extensibility, and the support groups of political parties will gradually solidify, and even the age -dimensional faults will occur. This is the key bottleneck encountered by the DPP.
Personal characteristics of rational integrity and diligence
In contrast, the cause of the people's party rarely adopts the wing warfare method is not only weak funds, but also low influence in the traditional media community. The more important reason is that Ke Wenzhe has some rare candidate characteristics., Enough to support the content in person.In the publicity videos of almost all the people's party, Ke Wenzhe rarely read the drafts, but he could play freely and talk freely for different issues.He is an excellent lecturer. He has a unique understanding of policy issues in all aspects of Taiwan, and is good at showing to the public in the form of teaching.This image is very easy to attract aspiration and idealist voters, which is also the reason why "young highly educated men" hold the most firm reasons for the party's party branch.
In addition to the style of rational knowledge, Ke Wenzhe's personal integrity and diligence are also an important characteristic of attracting young people.These two traits were originally one of the labels claimed by the DPP, but during the ruling of Chen Shui -bian and Tsai Ing -wen, the cases of disadvantages were frequent and failed to achieve social expectations.In contrast, Ke Wenzhe's eight years in the Taipei Municipal Government, he worked diligently, returned early and returned early, his personal finances were innocent, and he strictly observed financial discipline in administration.In the context of the complex and changing political environment in Taiwan, it is not easy to be able to achieve the above points and persist for a long time.In recent years, the political trend of democratic countries in Asia has shown that the moral standards of candidates have almost determined the tendency to vote for young voters, and Taiwan is no exception.For example, the Korean Yu four years ago can set off a storm in local elections. It is precisely the pain points of the DPP's "corruption, lazy administration, and financial discipline", thereby winning a large number of young people's support.Although South Korean Yu performed unsatisfactory in the presidential election, this social mood did not dissipate, but let voters choose Ke Wenzhe as a new political export.
"Deep Blue"
In addition to young people in Taiwan, another group of resentment against the ruling party is "dark blue".This is a group with a dual identity. They insist on the "1992 Consensus and the Table of the One Middle School".Deep blue is a double -edged sword for the Kuomintang. Its previous identity has become more and more cumbersome for elections, and the latter identity is the source of the Kuomintang's support for grassroots support.
In the past 10 years, the Kuomintang has become increasingly micro and facing reform problems. One of the biggest obstacles is that the deep blue group has adhered to conservative views in the political spectrum, and it is difficult to adapt to the mainstream public opinion of Taiwanese society.This is also one of the reasons for the Kuomintang in the last presidential election and the subsequent four referendums.Hou Youyi avoids the consensus of 1992. It may be worried that the Kuomintang further deviates from mainstream public opinion in this most important issue.
After Zhu Lilun took over the party's chairman, new changes in the distribution of power within the Kuomintang. The deep blue group that was once obtained by the rise of South Korean Yu was forced to give some places to some places.For a while, Deep Blue seemed to be "unable to find home" in the Kuomintang.They lost their sense of belonging and vent their disappointment and anger on Hou Youyi.With the weak performance of the Hou team in political offense and defense with the Democratic Progressive Party, and the last election, Hou Youyi attitude towards South Korea ’s Yu Ruoluo, some deep blue turns to support entrepreneur Guo Taiming and Ke Wenzhe.
In the polls in recent months, the high alternative between Guo Ke has the transfer of voters in the middle voters, but the choice of dark blue groups is the more important reason.Following the deep blue represented by Han Fan, Hou Youyi's polls could not exceed 20%, and even once fell to 15%of the "column defense line".Guo Taiming took the opportunity to vote in the international media, announcing the support of the 1992 consensus of the framework of the middle of the middle, and further robbing the deep blue ticket warehouse.
The division of the Kuomintang and the trend of the deep blue group objectively expanded Ke Wenzhe's momentum, and also benefited the people's party. He ate a wave of "dark blue benefits".It is worth noting that although Ke Wenzhe advocates cross -strait peace and communication, he does not support the 1992 consensus, and his views are closer to Lee Teng -hui's "special country and state relations."However, some of the deep blue are still willing to vote for Ke Wenzhe because they have great dissatisfaction with the DPP and hope to achieve the party's rotation: whoever criticizes the DPP is the most intense, and who can get their support.This kind of emotion even affects the Kuomintang one in turnSome legislators candidates, they publicly called on the Kuomintang to open up with the people's party to protect the grassroots election and further lift Ke Wenzhe's momentum.
The challenge and crisis are not small
Indeed, Ke Wenzhe is currently ahead of Hou Youyi in the polls. The people's party is expected to get about 10 sharing legislators in the next election., Reserve for the next round of local lawmakers to reserve combat candidates.However, Ke Wenzhe and his political parties also face some challenges and crises.
Although Ke Wenzhe can accurately grasp the reason for Taiwan's social problems, as a person's power, he cannot give a suitable policy solution alone.In the case of many issues involving many issues and publishing many views, it will inevitably cause some controversy and criticism, and then affect his voting expansion outside the young group.In addition, too many issues involved in hunting may be scattered, making voters feel that candidates lack core claims. In some complex issues, Ke Wenzhe's personal understanding may not be perfect.
For example, about the low salaries of young people in Taiwan, Ke Wenzhe believes that the root causes the low value of Taiwan's industrial structure and the unreasonable setting of university education disciplines.Although this view is reasonable, the policies of specific planning must be presented to voters in a timely manner.If you only stay in the problem diagnosis and without the corresponding solution, the meaning will appear pale and weak.As for some complex issues, such as the "establishing a modern civilian system", although he has eight years of administrative experience, if he lacks experts in public management, it is difficult to form a perfect solution with personal understanding.Political leaders seeking professional opinions when facing complex issues can make the policy more substantial and bring a clearer future vision to voters.Moreover, the absorption of social virtue and professional elites with policy consultation for political parties is a strong evidence of the influence of political parties.
In addition to the "one -person party" may cause the difficulties of policy discussions, another structural challenge faced by Ke Wenzhe is a serious infusion of the gender ratio within the party.In addition to Ke himself, most of the people familiar with the public are women.This may be conducive to attracting young male voters, but it may also have a rejection effect on female voters.At the "July 16th" Kaidao rally, the ratio of female participants is not high.A team with sex ratio disorders may strengthen the stereotype of the people's party's "one person party", lack diversification and representativeness, and will hinder the formation of an effective constraints within the party and increase the systemic risk of political parties.
In addition, the people's party must pay close attention to the integration trend of the Kuomintang.Under the pressure of Deep Blue, Zhu Lilun recalled Jin Yicong, an important staff member of the Ma Ying -jeou government, to operate election campaigns, seriously internal discipline, and strongly suppressed the sound of replacement.At the National Conference on July 23, South Korea ’s Yu has also expressed support for Hou Youyi. These measures may promote the return of Deep Blue, thereby shrinking Ke Wenzhe's leading advantage.
At present, Guo Taiming has basically determined to withdraw from the campaign stage. Even if he insists on running, it is likely to become the object of abandonment.The form of the "three -footed governor" has been established, and the polls in the next month will be vital.If Ke Wenzhe can hold the second place, there may be the possibility of integrating Guo Taiming and even limited cooperation with the Kuomintang. Otherwise, the election campaign will determine the rhythm of entering Lai Qingde.
Some people compare Ke Wenzhe's people's party with Song Chuyu's parental Party, worrying that the future of the people may be limited.However, it is clearly stated that the age structure of the voters of the new political parties is very different from the mother party, which leads to insufficient vitality; the biggest feature of the people's party is to have strong radiation to the young generation.
Imagine that after this election, the people's party can "live down" as expected and become a key minority in the Taiwan Legislative Yuan.Big opportunity.However, this requires Ke Wenzhe while maintaining personal voice, timely improve the party's construction, expand talent reserves, and find the end of the policy for ideas, and ensure the duration of political parties from the system.Only in this way can the people's party better cope with future challenges.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Assistant professor of Li Guangyao School of Public Policy
