Source: Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times
Industrial and Commercial Times Society
Recently, not only the epidemic of the epidemic has disappeared too fast, it has also been trapped in doubts of currency tightening.EssenceEven if Chinese officials continue to clarify that the short -term price is not the same as shrinking, the pessimist is still bluntly stated that China will step on the back of Japan's thumbnails.
So, is China shrank now?The United States Fed defines for shrinkage refers to "a general and continuous decline in prices", while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) defines prices for two consecutive years to decline before it is called shrinkage.From this point of view, although the current food and costumes in China CPI have stagnated or recession, education and medical prices still maintain a certain growth momentum, and the overall CPI has only one month of stagnation, and there is no continuous decline.In other words, observation of two sides of universality and persistence, it is indeed impossible to determine that China has entered a shrinkage.
Even so, scholars and experts who are concerned about Chinese economic data are still shocked, because the phenomenon of weakness in China and abroad is serious.The study of the former Federal Reserve President Bonanke, who studied the Great Depression, also said that the root cause of the shrinking came from the collapse of demand.
First of all, in June this year, China's two -year consumption growth rate was only 2.5 %, which was far lower than the average growth rate of 8.0 % in 2019 before the epidemic, and even lower than the average US consumption growth rate of 3.2 % this year.The willingness is low.In particular, the negative impact and uncertainty of the long -term clearing policy on the economy has limited salary growth and prompting the people's consumption to become conservative.The bank report shows that 58 % of the people's funds tend to be "more savings", so that the savings rate rises from 33 % at the end of 2019 to 40 % of the second quarter of this year. The rise in savings rate is the primary feature of the shrinking economy.
Secondly, most countries in Europe and the United States are still stubborn so far, so that their monetary policy will maintain a comprehensive tightening state, and the terminal demand will continue to hit China's exports.
Third, the housing market is not removed, dragging down investment.After the crisis of Evergrande, the housing market was in a sluggish, the price fell, and the investment in real estate enterprises slowed sharply. In addition, the banking system was cautious, and the difficulty of the financing of housing enterprises made the real estate investment in the first half of this year declined by 7.9 % compared with the same period last year. The new house started working.The area is larger by 24.3 %, and the company has made the overall non -governmental investment decline.
Fourth, the central and local finances deteriorate, and the economy is difficult to continue to rely on government spending.In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy relied on the low base period and state -owned investment support. However, in order to ease the economic impact, the government launched a tax reduction policy to increase the tax base to shrink.tired.In the past two years, the average annual compound growth rate of the Chinese government's total taxes was only 1.76 %, which was lower than 3.8 % in 2019. In the first half of this year, the consumption tax income decreased by 13.6 % compared with the same period last year.The possibility.
In addition, the pressure of some industries to reduce prices has increased greatly, and corporate profits are shrinking, which is also one of the characteristics of the shrinking economy.Under the tightening of demand, some industries have begun to reduce prices. For example, chip shortage after the epidemic drives the price of major countries. In 2021 and 2022, the annual growth rates of new car prices in the United States reached 11.8 % and 5.9 %, but China was only 1.0 % and respectively.-2.2 %, it fell -4.3 % in the first half of this year, as well as family durability.The weak demand and price reduction pressure led to a sharp decrease in the profit growth rate of private enterprises in the first half of this year.
Therefore, in the case of external demand, effectively release consumer momentum is the primary task of the Chinese government. Recently related stimulus policies have been accelerated.The mortgage interest rate and the reconstruction of the village in the city are to release a clear signal of a clear stable growth to avoid the formation of confidence to lump and shrink.A few days ago, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that it is necessary to increase the stability of employment to a strategic height. By increasing the income of residents' income to expand consumption, it also implies that there is still room for interest rate cuts and restrictions;Do not speculate).
The Development and Reform Commission will announce 20 measures to restore and expand consumption on July 31. From the six aspects of stabilizing the consumption, expanding service consumption, promoting rural consumption, expanding new consumption, improving consumer facilities, and optimizing the consumer environment.Period can effectively stimulate domestic demand and play the basic role of consumption on economic development.
However, the stimulus policies and declarations launched by China are quite sincere, but they still have to observe the effects of follow -up measures in order to know whether it is out of the risk of potential shrinkage.At the same time, all walks of life must also recognize that after the industrial rectification under the special system of the Chinese special system, the dazzling US -China political wrestling, and the multiple political and economic variables after the supply chain after the epidemic.Since the reform and opening up in 1979, it has continued to grow rapidly and joined the WTO (WTO), and there has been an endless growth of China.It has a variety of structural issues left by the rapid development of decades to be resolved, and it will constantly correct the pace and growth rate, which will be the new normal of the Chinese economy.Recently, China's economic downturn has also dragged down Taiwan's export performance, and these phenomena will also have a impact on Taiwan's future economic growth.
