Zhang Rui: High savings become Japanese economic energy reservoir

The latest statistics released by the Bank of Japan show that as of the end of March this year, Japanese household financial assets rose to 20.43 trillion yen (about S $ 1958 billion), a record high, and it has risen for three years.

Family financial assets refer to financial product portfolio formed by cash, savings deposits, stock bonds, pension insurance, and trust investment.As far as varieties are concerned, savings deposits account for 54.2%of Japanese family financial assets. It is particularly worthy of attention. Even the Bank of Japan has long implemented zero interest rates or even negative interest rates, even if it is stocks such as stocks and bonds.It also failed to change and shake the favorite of Japanese families for bank savings and unusually stable focus.That's why, cash savings have always occupied more than half of the weight of Japanese family financial asset allocation structures in the past 30 years.

In addition to maintaining a strong preference for cash deposits, the proportion of insurance, pensions and standardization in Japanese family financial assets accounts for 26.2%.In this way, the ratio of risk -free assets reached 80.4%; correspondingly, stock investment accounted for only 11%, and investment trusts were as low as 4.4%.It must be emphasized that during the bubble period of the 1980s alone, the stock investment ratio of more than 20%was more than 20%. In more than 30 years after the bubble was broken, the proportion of Japanese family departments to stock investment has been stable at about 10%.In addition, the Bank of Japan has implemented the yield curve control policy since 2016. While lowered the rate of national debt yields, it also made the price of national bonds in the secondary market more obvious.Nevertheless, the participation rate of the Japanese people is not high and the entry rate is not high, and it is more to choose to cover the bank's savings money bag tightly.

The reason why Japanese families have high -end risk -free financial assets, especially savings assets, are first of all related to the financial system arrangements advocated by the government.After World War II, in order to drive the industrial development, the Japanese government established a bank -centered "escort ship group" financial system to form a financial system mainly based on indirect financing.The deposit interest tax and other preferential policies were achieved by the rapid realization of industrialization within more than 20 years.

This is not only that. The long -term savings policy guidance is equivalent to repeated influence of risk -free investment awareness, resulting in relatively insufficient market -oriented financial knowledge owned by Japanese residents, and more than 75%of families still do not participate in stock investment.In response, the questionnaire surveyed by the Japanese Securities Development Association was concluded that more than half of the families answered "insufficient knowledge".

Policy Strengthen Banking Reserve Protection

To this day, the protection of the interests of Japanese financial policies on banks is still continuously improved and strengthened.On the one hand, in response to the actual reality of personal reserves in information acquisition and competitive position at all, the law clearly requires that the bank must make a clear and clear explanation for any risk -free or low -risk financial products, otherwise they will be held account and punishment.On the other hand, the Japanese government has also established two financial firewalls of the deposit insurance system and savings protection fund to ensure that under the bankruptcy of the bank, the storage households can be compensated as much as possible and practical.This type of institutional arrangement of the city of moat has further strengthened the residents' savings selection behavior, and at the same time, the awareness of risk -free investment is deeply rooted in people's hearts.

Looking back, in addition to the breaking of the bubble economy, many families at that time suffered the loss of stock investment at that time, and house prices began in the early 1990s, which gave the public a cruel risk education.In the 1980s, real estate once occupied more than 50%of Japanese household assets, and the housing market has become a paradise for many people to speculate and dream.It was only after more than 30 years of housing prices, which caused many investors to sink, and the family began to "de -realization" quickly. In the end, the proportion of real estate in Japanese household assets has shrunk to 21%.Although real estate does not belong to financial assets, the heavy investment losses have strengthened the risk and dislike of many families, and it will inevitably map and enlarge it to risk assets such as stocks.More loved.

It has to be emphasized that financial assets are placed under family accounts and can only show the amount of wealth of specific units. Entering the national financial system, it constitutes the huge energy of the national economic cycle, especially Japan, especially JapanHalf half of the family financial assets exist in the form of savings, which is equivalent to having a private reservoir that can provide blood for the economy.

In this regard, the originator of Economics Adam Smith, the originator of the mountain, once explained the "nature of assets and its accumulation and use" in the national rich theory.wealth.Another master of economics, Keynes, is a well -known Establishment, and the theory of interest and currency, as the foundation of macroeconomics.

Savings to promote economic growth

Interestingly, one of the famous Japanese economists and the father of the economic take -off, and the first writer of Japan's economic white paper, all retained the professor of heavy people, which proves the role of savings to promote economic growth with real cases.In the post -war economic development with the opportunity to defeat as an opportunity, we have left heavy people through comparative studies that the economic growth rate of Japan from 1960 to 1980 was higher than other developed countries because of the total domestic domestic domestic general at that time.The ratio of savings to the GDP of nationality should be significantly higher than other industrial countries. Among them, from 1964 to 1968, Japan's savings and national product ratio ratio was 36.2%.West Germany was 26.7%and France was 25.7%; from 1969 to 1980, the value was 41.6%, 15.3%in the United States, 20.7%in the United Kingdom, 28.6%in West Germany, and 29.3%in France.

The people who reserve heavy people are mainly from the perspective of savings that can transform investment and explain the role of savings on economic growth. To this end, he particularly emphasized that when the industry has a typical structural change -the average labor force requires more capital equipment for capital equipment.At this time, this change is impossible without investing in such structural changes.Of course, after 1990, the Japanese economy entered a downward channel, which opened "30 years of lost 30 years", but it could not indicate that the high savings power had been exited, but the level of "savings → consumption" was converted.force.

As an important carriage of economic growth, Japan has been in a decreasing state in the past 20 years, and the overall economy has dropped to 21%of the current foreign dependence.At the same time, the continuous shrinkage caused the asset sheet of Japanese companies to deteriorate, and "liabilities" squeezed and suppressed private investment.Fortunately, consumption has taken over the relay stick of economic growth, especially the contribution of Japanese family consumption to economic growth.More than 60%of the consumption potential energy, except for the decline in some years, the Japanese economy has maintained positive growth in the "lost 30 years".

Good, there is a seesaw effect in savings and consumption, that is, the increase in family savings often "squeeze out" consumption, but this result will only be reduced in people's income, the savings rate is not high enough, and the publicIt occurs in an uneasy environment in the future.As previously pointed out, among the financial asset structures of Japanese households, the proportion of savings for decades has remained above 50%, and it is in a high stable state.Go to consumption.

Although conservative estimates, the average Japanese salary in Japan has increased by 4.4%in the past 30 years, but in the trend of continuous economic continuity, it is not easy to maintain the increase in wages. In the past three yearsThe industry's wage income increased by 4.8%year -on -year, the highest growth rate of 24 years, and this year may continue to innovate high.What's more noteworthy is that the per capita income of Japanese nationals accounts for nearly 50%of GDP, which is not only higher than many developed countries, but also makes the emerging market economy unstoppable. The thick foundation that the people can consume can be seen.In addition, insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantees ranked second in the proportion of financial assets in Japanese households, indicating that the future living safety facilities that the public installed for themselves for themselves are more stable and reliable.(Editor's: A pension -year -old gold system) and the personal savings account plan the two major commercial pension insurance policies to absorb all residents over 20 years old.In this case, with the help of high -quality supplements and strategies on supply side, dare to consume can easily become the behavior trend of the Japanese people, and the economy has also obtained the inherent momentum of continuous movement.

The author is a director and professor of economics in the Chinese Market Society